Jesse's Café Américain Sun 2009-09-20 11:07 EDT

Stock Market Rally: Shenanigans Abounding

Jesse

...The US markets in general have every mark of a maturing Ponzi scheme...Bonds, stocks, metals, sugar, cocoa, and oil are all moving higher, while the dollar sinks. Is the dollar funding a new carry trade?...We remain guardedly 'optimistic' on the markets for next year ONLY because of the Fed's and Treasury's willingness to continue to debase the dollar to cover the massive unrealized losses in the banks' portfolios, even as they return to manipulating markets in business as usual. Inflation is good for financial assets, and we think another bubble is in the cards, at least for now given Obama's unwillingness to reform, unless some exogenous event or actor intervenes...

Jesse's Café Américain; Shenanigans Abounding; stock market rally.

The IRA Analyst Thu 2009-09-17 10:22 EDT

Back to Basis for Securitization and Structured Credit: Interview With Ann Rutledge

To get some further insight into the world of securitization and cash flows, we spoke last week to Ann Rutledge of RR Consulting...The difference between a futures contract for T-bonds and a credit default swap is that the former is a real contract for a real deliverable, whereas the CDS trades against what people think is the cash basis, but there is no cash market price to discipline and validate that derivative market. Rutledge: a contract or structure without a cash basis should not be allowed at all. You cannot have a derivative that is honest and fair to all market participants without a true cash basis. ...derivatives markets such as CDS and CDOs that have no cash basis tend to magnify speculative excesses, while derivative markets where there is a visible cash basis market to discipline investor behavior seem less unstable in terms of systemic risk. Rutledge: If the cash market were visible and could be examined by all participants, then it would give away the ability of the dealer banks to tax participants in the market and extract these abnormal returns. So how do we fix the problem... Rutledge: These originators play this game over and over again and they don't get caught, in part because we do not have a common, standardized set of definitions for governing the most basic aspects of the securitization process. The buyers don't do the work and the accounting framework is a counterparty-oriented framework, not one that is focused on the underlying assets. So banks like Countrywide and WaMu originated and sold some truly hideous structures during the bubble, but the buyers only diligence was reliance upon recourse to these banks. It costs maybe 50bp for a buyer to get the data and grind the numbers to really diligence a securitization based on cash flows, even a complex CDO. But the cost to the buyer and the system of not doing the diligence is an order or magnitude bigger. If the Congress, the SEC and the FASB, and the financial regulators only do one thing this year when it comes to reforming the world of structured credit, then it should be to impose by law and regulation common standards for the definitions used in the marketplace.

Ann Rutledge; basis; interview; IRA Analyst; securitizations; structured credit.

Thu 2009-09-17 10:08 EDT

The Next Financial Crisis

Peter Boone, Simon Johnson

Our banks have gotten into the habit of needing to be rescued through repeated bailouts. During this crisis, Bernanke--while saving the financial system in the short term--has done nothing to break this long-term pattern; worse, he exacerbated it. As a result, unless real reform happens soon, we face the prospect of another bubble-bust-bailout cycle that will be even more dangerous than the one we've just been through. ...We have seen this spectacle--the Fed saving us from one crisis only to instigate another--many times before. And, over the past few decades, the problem has become significantly more dire. The fault, to be sure, doesn't lie entirely with the Fed. Bernanke is a prisoner of a financial system with serious built-in flaws. The decisions he made during the recent crisis weren't necessarily the wrong decisions; indeed, they were, in many respects, the decisions he had to make. But these decisions, however necessary in the moment, are almost guaranteed to hurt our economy in the long run--which, in turn, means that more necessary but harmful measures will be needed in the future. It is a debilitating, vicious cycle. And at the center of this cycle is the Fed.

Financial Crisis.

naked capitalism Mon 2009-09-14 14:51 EDT

Guest Post: Sarkozy, Stiglitz & capitalism's inherent contradictions

Swedish Lex, an expert and advisor on EU regulatory and political affairs

The French Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress presented its final Report written by Stiglitz and other leading economists at an event at la Sorbonne earlier today. The contents of Report is already being discussed widely but at least as relevant are the politics surrounding the Commission's Report and how France intends to use it to spearhead economic reform at home and abroad. This post provides a few comments on Sarkozy's speech.

capitalism's inherent contradictions; Guest Post; naked capitalism; Sarkozy; Stiglitz.

Jesse's Café Américain Sun 2009-09-13 12:21 EDT

Signs of an Approaching Decline in US Equities That Could Be Quite Impressive

Jesse

There is a strong correlation between this US equity rally and the Fed monetization of debt, which indicates a 'hot money' flow into US stocks but with thin volumes from a significant market bottom. This points to 'technical price trading' by the financial sector, also known was price manipulation, or trading stocks like commodities. Continued heavy insider selling from those with the best forward view of the real economy is a clear sign of a top. No one can trust what the Fed or the Administration are saying about an economic recovery, as much now as ever. Obama's administration is no reform government ...We will not be surprised if there is a significant decline, first to a pullback of about 7 to 10 percent. Then we will see if the market can rally on renewed dollar devaluation and if not, then another major slide to test lower levels.

Approaching Decline; Equities; impressive; Jesse's Café Américain; signed.

Jesse's Café Américain Fri 2009-09-04 19:00 EDT

Five Reasons for the Recent Surge in Gold

Jesse

1. Seasonality 2. Continuing Risks in the Financial System 3. Moral Hazard: Tipping Point In Confidence From Over a Decade of Monetary and Regulatory Policy Errors 4. Blowback from Banking Frauds on the Rest of World 5. A Failure in Political Leadership to Deliver Essential Reforms

gold; Jesse's Café Américain; reasons; recent surge.

Jesse's Café Américain Thu 2009-08-20 16:46 EDT

The Next Wave of the Financial Crisis Is Coming (And Why)

Jesse

These excerpts from the most recent TARP Congressional Oversight Panel Report make the risks in the US financial system abundantly clear.Do you think that the Congress has the will and the ability to act on their recommendation, with the men currently in positions of power on the key Committees? Do you believe that the Obama Administration is capable of reforming itself and effecting genuine

comes; Financial Crisis; Jesse's Café Américain; wave.

Jesse's Café Américain Thu 2009-08-20 16:44 EDT

The Next Wave of the Financial Crisis Is Coming (And Why)

Jesse

These excerpts from the most recent TARP Congressional Oversight Panel Report make the risks in the US financial system abundantly clear.Do you think that the Congress has the will and the ability to act on their recommendation, with the men currently in positions of power on the key Committees? Do you believe that the Obama Administration is capable of reforming itself and effecting genuine

comes; Financial Crisis; Jesse's Café Américain; wave.

Jesse's Café Américain Thu 2009-08-20 16:42 EDT

The Next Wave of the Financial Crisis Is Coming (And Why)

Jesse

These excerpts from the most recent TARP Congressional Oversight Panel Report make the risks in the US financial system abundantly clear.Do you think that the Congress has the will and the ability to act on their recommendation, with the men currently in positions of power on the key Committees? Do you believe that the Obama Administration is capable of reforming itself and effecting genuine

comes; Financial Crisis; Jesse's Café Américain; wave.

Jesse's Café Américain Thu 2009-08-20 16:36 EDT

The Next Wave of the Financial Crisis Is Coming (And Why)

Jesse

These excerpts from the most recent TARP Congressional Oversight Panel Report make the risks in the US financial system abundantly clear.Do you think that the Congress has the will and the ability to act on their recommendation, with the men currently in positions of power on the key Committees? Do you believe that the Obama Administration is capable of reforming itself and effecting genuine

comes; Financial Crisis; Jesse's Café Américain; wave.

Jesse's Café Américain Thu 2009-08-20 16:35 EDT

The Next Wave of the Financial Crisis Is Coming (And Why)

Jesse

These excerpts from the most recent TARP Congressional Oversight Panel Report make the risks in the US financial system abundantly clear.Do you think that the Congress has the will and the ability to act on their recommendation, with the men currently in positions of power on the key Committees? Do you believe that the Obama Administration is capable of reforming itself and effecting genuine

comes; Financial Crisis; Jesse's Café Américain; wave.

Jesse's Café Américain Thu 2009-08-20 16:34 EDT

The Next Wave of the Financial Crisis Is Coming (And Why)

Jesse

These excerpts from the most recent TARP Congressional Oversight Panel Report make the risks in the US financial system abundantly clear.Do you think that the Congress has the will and the ability to act on their recommendation, with the men currently in positions of power on the key Committees? Do you believe that the Obama Administration is capable of reforming itself and effecting genuine

comes; Financial Crisis; Jesse's Café Américain; wave.

Jesse's Café Américain Thu 2009-08-20 16:29 EDT

The Next Wave of the Financial Crisis Is Coming (And Why)

Jesse

These excerpts from the most recent TARP Congressional Oversight Panel Report make the risks in the US financial system abundantly clear.Do you think that the Congress has the will and the ability to act on their recommendation, with the men currently in positions of power on the key Committees? Do you believe that the Obama Administration is capable of reforming itself and effecting genuine

comes; Financial Crisis; Jesse's Café Américain; wave.

Jesse's Café Américain Thu 2009-08-20 16:26 EDT

The Next Wave of the Financial Crisis Is Coming (And Why)

Jesse

These excerpts from the most recent TARP Congressional Oversight Panel Report make the risks in the US financial system abundantly clear.Do you think that the Congress has the will and the ability to act on their recommendation, with the men currently in positions of power on the key Committees? Do you believe that the Obama Administration is capable of reforming itself and effecting genuine

comes; Financial Crisis; Jesse's Café Américain; wave.

Jesse's Café Américain Thu 2009-08-20 16:25 EDT

The Next Wave of the Financial Crisis Is Coming (And Why)

Jesse

These excerpts from the most recent TARP Congressional Oversight Panel Report make the risks in the US financial system abundantly clear.Do you think that the Congress has the will and the ability to act on their recommendation, with the men currently in positions of power on the key Committees? Do you believe that the Obama Administration is capable of reforming itself and effecting genuine

comes; Financial Crisis; Jesse's Café Américain; wave.

Jesse's Café Américain Thu 2009-08-20 16:17 EDT

The Next Wave of the Financial Crisis Is Coming (And Why)

Jesse

These excerpts from the most recent TARP Congressional Oversight Panel Report make the risks in the US financial system abundantly clear.Do you think that the Congress has the will and the ability to act on their recommendation, with the men currently in positions of power on the key Committees? Do you believe that the Obama Administration is capable of reforming itself and effecting genuine

comes; Financial Crisis; Jesse's Café Américain; wave.