dimelab dimelab: shrinking the gap between talk and action.

unstable Topic in The Credit Debacle Catalog

dangerously unstable bubble (1); increases unstable (2); inherently unstable (2); nature unstable (1); somewhat unstable (1); unstable equilibrium (1).

Culture of Life News Mon 2010-04-05 09:07 EDT

China Buys Volvo--Yuan Will Be #1 Currency In Future

...the Chinese are cutting out the use of dollars as international trade settlements. Right now, for various reasons, OPEC still uses the dollar in this way but they are now openly talking about changing their own policies. And change will come, no matter how deluded we are. Already, currency players and international investors are running from the sinking US dollar and rowing like mad to get aboard the euro and yuan ships. The near sinking of the euro scared everyone to death since Europe has no powerful central government but is rather, a very loose confederation. Which is very, very, very unstable. [dollar losing reserve currency status]

1 Currency; China Buys Volvo; Culture; future; Life News; Yuan.

Jesse's Café Américain Mon 2009-12-28 16:22 EST

What Will the World Reserve Currency System Become? The Stakes Are Enormous

The deterioration of the dollar reserve currency regime is obvious.If we have forecasted correctly, the world will look to some variation of the IMF's Special Drawing Rights as an eventual replacement for the US dollar. Therefore, the recomposition of the SDR next year will become a lightning rod for the global stresses created by an increasingly unstable and impractical system of global trade...A new global currency should replace the US dollar as the international reserve currency, as the long-term deterioration of America's economy and the greenback is fuelling a "currency-regime crisis," says Martin Wolf, associate editor and chief economics commentator of the Financial Times.

Enormous; Jesse's Café Américain; stake; World Reserve Currency System Become.

Jesse's Café Américain Mon 2009-10-26 09:37 EDT

Of Bubbles and Busts: Which Way for China?

While the crowd has been chortling over the anticipated decline and fall of the American Empire, they may also be overlooking the dangerously unstable bubble in China, and the implications for that phenomenon when the global economy shifts again...China is more like the US in 1929 than the US itself resembles that paradigm today. This would imply that China is more likely to experience the kind of devastating crash and long economic Depression if world trade collapses.

bubble; busting; China; Jesse's Café Américain; way.

Credit Writedowns Wed 2009-10-14 12:12 EDT

Currencies pegged to the dollar under pressure to drop peg

...as the dollar continues to weaken, those countries with pegs will be under pressure to drop their peg or to revalue their pegs higher. The Bloomberg video linked below explains. The dichotomy whereby the adjustment process is done only through free-floating currencies is inherently unstable -- and invites a nationalistic response. A busted peg in any major U.S. trading partner's currency is likely to have a very negative psychological impact on currency markets and severe knock-on effects... [dollar losing reserve status]

credit writedowns; currency pegs; Dollar; drop peg; pressures.

Mon 2009-10-05 11:23 EDT

New Bubble Threatens a V-Shaped Rebound

...What we are seeing now in the global economy is a pure liquidity bubble. It's been manifested in several asset classes. The most prominent are commodities, stocks and government bonds. The story that supports this bubble is that fiscal stimulus would lead to quick economic recovery, and the output gap could keep inflation down. Hence, central banks can keep interest rates low for a couple more years...I think the market is being misled. The driving forces for the current bounce are inventory cycle and government stimulus. The follow-through from corporate capex and consumption are severely constrained by structural challenges. These challenges have origins in the bubble that led to a misallocation of resources. After the bubble burst, a mismatch of supply and demand limited the effectiveness of either stimulus or a bubble in creating demand...he structural challenges arise from global imbalance and industries that over-expanded due to exaggerated demand supported in the past by cheap credit and high asset prices. At the global level, the imbalance is between deficit-bound Anglo-Saxon economies (Australia, Britain and the United States) and surplus emerging economies (mainly China and oil exporters)...The old equilibrium cannot be restored, and many structural barriers stand in the way of a new equilibrium. The current recovery is based on a temporary and unstable equilibrium in which the United States slows the rise of its national savings rate by increasing the fiscal deficit, and China lowers its savings surplus by boosting government spending and inflating an assets bubble.

New Bubble Threatens; Shaped Rebound.

The IRA Analyst Thu 2009-09-17 10:22 EDT

Back to Basis for Securitization and Structured Credit: Interview With Ann Rutledge

To get some further insight into the world of securitization and cash flows, we spoke last week to Ann Rutledge of RR Consulting...The difference between a futures contract for T-bonds and a credit default swap is that the former is a real contract for a real deliverable, whereas the CDS trades against what people think is the cash basis, but there is no cash market price to discipline and validate that derivative market. Rutledge: a contract or structure without a cash basis should not be allowed at all. You cannot have a derivative that is honest and fair to all market participants without a true cash basis. ...derivatives markets such as CDS and CDOs that have no cash basis tend to magnify speculative excesses, while derivative markets where there is a visible cash basis market to discipline investor behavior seem less unstable in terms of systemic risk. Rutledge: If the cash market were visible and could be examined by all participants, then it would give away the ability of the dealer banks to tax participants in the market and extract these abnormal returns. So how do we fix the problem... Rutledge: These originators play this game over and over again and they don't get caught, in part because we do not have a common, standardized set of definitions for governing the most basic aspects of the securitization process. The buyers don't do the work and the accounting framework is a counterparty-oriented framework, not one that is focused on the underlying assets. So banks like Countrywide and WaMu originated and sold some truly hideous structures during the bubble, but the buyers only diligence was reliance upon recourse to these banks. It costs maybe 50bp for a buyer to get the data and grind the numbers to really diligence a securitization based on cash flows, even a complex CDO. But the cost to the buyer and the system of not doing the diligence is an order or magnitude bigger. If the Congress, the SEC and the FASB, and the financial regulators only do one thing this year when it comes to reforming the world of structured credit, then it should be to impose by law and regulation common standards for the definitions used in the marketplace.

Ann Rutledge; basis; interview; IRA Analyst; securitizations; structured credit.

Thu 2009-09-17 09:31 EDT

Why capitalism fails - The Boston Globe

Mainstream economics rediscovers Hyman Minsky; ``Instability,'' he wrote, ``is an inherent and inescapable flaw of capitalism.''...Minsky drew his own, far darker, lessons from Keynes's landmark writings, which dealt not only with the problem of unemployment, but with money and banking...Minsky argued that Keynes's collective work amounted to a powerful argument that capitalism was by its very nature unstable and prone to collapse. Far from trending toward some magical state of equilibrium, capitalism would inevitably do the opposite. It would lurch over a cliff...Minsky spent the last years of his life, in the early 1990s, warning of the dangers of securitization and other forms of financial innovation, but few economists listened. Nor did they pay attention to consumers' and companies' growing dependence on debt, and the growing use of leverage within the financial system... Minsky...argued for a ``bubble-up'' approach, sending money to the poor and unskilled first. The government - or what he liked to call ``Big Government'' - should become the ``employer of last resort,'' he said, offering a job to anyone who wanted one at a set minimum wage. It would be paid to workers who would supply child care, clean streets, and provide services that would give taxpayers a visible return on their dollars. In being available to everyone, it would be even more ambitious than the New Deal, sharply reducing the welfare rolls by guaranteeing a job for anyone who was able to work. Such a program would not only help the poor and unskilled, he believed, but would put a floor beneath everyone else's wages too, preventing salaries of more skilled workers from falling too precipitously, and sending benefits up the socioeconomic ladder.

Boston Globe; Capitalism Failed.

Steve Keen's Debtwatch Sun 2009-08-30 20:48 EDT

Debtwatch No. 38: The GFC--Pothole or Mountain?

``The Marxian view is that capitalistic economies are inherently unstable and that excessive accumulation of capital will lead to increasingly severe economic crises. Growth theory, which has proved to be empirically successful, says this is not true.'' wrote Economics Nobel Prize winner Edward C. Prescott. Prescott also claimed ``the Great Depression was a conscious choice by American workers to enjoy more leisure, in response to unspecified changes in the labour market'' Apparently debt played no role. The capitalistic economy is stable, and absent some change in technology or the rules of the economic game, the [...]

38; Debtwatch; GFC; Mountain; Potholes; Steve Keen's Debtwatch.

Thu 2009-07-30 00:00 EDT

Will The Dollar Standard Collapse?

By John Carney; Sahm Adrangi opines ``Abandoning the gold standard has gradually resulted in a very overvalued US dollar, and that the dollar is headed for disaster. The dollar standard is inherently flawed and increasingly unstable. Its collapse will be the most important economic event of the 21st century.

Dollar Standard Collapse.

Fri 2009-01-16 00:00 EST

Jesse's Café Américain: Dancing on a Precipice: The Tenuous Balance in Global Finance

Jesse's Café Américain: Dancing on a Precipice: The Tenuous Balance in Global Finance; ``The dollar is a Ponzi scheme, the waters of debt are overflowing the dam of artificial support, and only a few countries, two of them somewhat unstable, are holding back the deluge.''

dance; Global Finance; Jesse's Café Américain; precipice; Tenuous Balance.