Sun 2009-09-20 12:17 EDT

Michael Hudson - financial economist and historian

Publications by financial economist and historian Michael Hudson, on finance and accounting, real estate and history of ancient Near East (reform, taxation, monetary, investment, instability, poverty, development, globalisation, real estate, statistics, property, land, value, reform, taxation, rent, Henry George, international, finance, IMF, World Bank, critique, euro, policy, Sumer, economic, history, Babylonia, usury, interest, rates, ancient, U.S., imperialism, privatization, urbanization, national, income, accounts, wealth, distribution, money, credit, monetarism, criticism, creditary, financial)

Financial economist; historians; Michael Hudson.

naked capitalism Sun 2009-09-20 11:53 EDT

Financial Reform: Not happening but the need is clear

Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns

If you are looking for reform in the financial sector, the moment has passed. And only to the degree that the underlying weaknesses in the global financial system are made manifest and threaten the economy will we see any appetite for reform amongst politicians. So, as I see it, the Obama administration has missed the opportunity for reform...Steve Keen, an Australian economist whose theories are heavily influenced by Hyman Minsky, has a cogent analysis of the true structural deficits in the current economic model...today we have finally reached a level of debt which is so great that another reflation is impossible. The collapse is now....unlike Keen, I am not convinced the time is now...What I would like to see is economic thought leaders developing a blueprint of a financial crisis strategy which tackles both the immediate crisis issues (liquidity) and the structural, regulatory and monetary issues that create financial volatility (solvency). When crisis does occur, I believe it will be systemic in nature due to the forces Keen so lucidly explains. Therefore, a blueprint which is 1) heavy on tactics and, 2) if implemented in a real systemic crisis, is likely to work, builds credibility. This is political capital which will carry over to longer-term preventive strategies and reforms.

clear; Financial reform; happened; naked capitalism; needed.

Asia Times Online Sun 2009-09-13 10:25 EDT

THE BEAR'S LAIR : Possible October surprises

Martin Hutchinson

The inflation that might be expected in the United States from unprecedented expansionary monetary policies has failed to appear, while huge budget deficits have yet to produce higher interest rates. Far from being signs of a new economic paradigm, this merely means new bubbles are forming...Commodities and gold therefore are the destination of this year's hot money and are forming the new bubble...a fair-sized bubble has developed in the T-bond market...however...a modest resurgence in US inflation or difficulty in a long dated T-bond auction could cause confidence to flee the Treasury bond market and yields to leap uncontrollably upwards...the long-term costs of excessively cheap money are beginning to be seen in the US economy itself. By allowing money to remain so cheap for so long, and by running incessant payments deficits, the United States has surrendered the advantage of its superior long-established capital base, narrowing its capital cost advantage over emerging markets and exporting that capital to countries with less profligate approaches. Huge budget deficits, themselves worsening the trade deficit, merely export yet more US capital to the surplus nations. That makes it inevitable that the years ahead, in which the United States will no longer enjoy a capital advantage over its lower-wage competitors, will see highly unpleasant declines in US living standards.

Asia Times Online; BEAR'S LAIR; Possible October surprises.

Calculated Risk Tue 2009-09-08 14:43 EDT

Survey: ``The Anguish of Unemployment''

CalculatedRisk

Unemployment survey by the Rutgers University John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Development: A comprehensive national survey conducted among 1,200 Americans nationwide who have been unemployed and looking for a job in the past 12 months, including 894 who are still jobless, portrays a shaken, traumatized people coping with serious financial and psychological effects from an economic downturn of epic proportion.

Anguish; Calculated Risk; survey; unemployment.

Steve Keen's Debtwatch Sun 2009-08-30 14:33 EDT

It's Hard Being a Bear (Part Two)

Cassander

One of the reasons I'm still a bear on the economy is because the economists in the optimists camp are relying upon very bad economic theory. If that theory is telling them good times are ahead, that's one of the best predictors of bad times you could have. Capital Assets Pricing Model (CAPM) preached that stock market price shares accurately, that the amount of debt finance a company has doesn't affect its value, and many other notions that have gone up in smoke during the GFC. CAPM developer William Sharpe ``assumed a miracle'': all investors agree about the future and their expectations about the future are correct. Macroeconomic theory has been dominated by IS-LM model erroneously attributed to Keynes but actually due to convervative neoclassical John Hicks, which ``emasculated what was original in Keynes's General Theory, and this bowdlerised version of Keynes was then demolished by Friedman in the 1970s to usher in the Monetarist phase''

Bear; hard; part; Steve Keen's Debtwatch.

ClubOrlov Wed 2009-08-26 11:24 EDT

Definancialisation, Deglobalisation, Relocalisation

kollapsnik

This talk was presented at The New Emergency Conference in Dublin, on June 11, 2009. ``we all have to prepare for life without much money, where imported goods are scarce, and where people have to provide for their own needs, and those of their immediate neighbours'' ``Most of the wealth is in very few private hands right now. Governments and the vast majority of the people only have debt. It is important to convince people who control all this wealth that they really have two choices. They can trust their investment advisers, maintain their current portfolios, and eventually lose everything. Or they can use their wealth to reengage with people and the land in new ways, in which case they stand a chance of saving something for themselves and their children. They can build and launch lifeboats, recruit crew, and set them sailing.'' 1. Good morning. The title of this talk is a bit of a mouthful, but what I want to say can be summed up in simpler words: we all have to prepare for life without much money, where imported goods are scarce, and where people have to provide for their own needs, and those of their immediate neighbours. I will take as my point of departure the unfolding collapse of the global economy, and discuss what might come next. It started with the collapse of the financial markets last year, and is now resulting in unprecedented decreases in the volumes of international trade. These developments are also starting to affect the political stability of...

ClubOrlov; Definancialisation; Deglobalisation; relocalisation.

Thu 2009-07-23 00:00 EDT

Asia is de-coupling - Credit Writedowns

Asian Development Bank excludes International Monetary Fund (IMF)

Asia; credit writedowns; de coupled.

Tue 2009-06-16 00:00 EDT

naked capitalism: Some Musings on Financial Innovation

Martin Mayer ``the whole purpose of the innovation is to get around the existing regulation''; John Maynard Keynes `` When the capital development of a country becomes a by-product of the activities of a casino, the job is likely to be ill-done.'' Yves: ``ncreasing the liquidity of credit risk, even assuming it worked as advertised, seemed guaranteed to mean that everyone would be more casual about assuming it''

financial innovation; mused; naked capitalism.

Fri 2009-01-16 00:00 EST

CHINESE CHECKMATE << Culture of Life News

``There is a game of chicken developing here: both China and Japan hold more than $1.5 trillion in US paper and whoever drops it off the cliff first, will beat the one who hesitates...Will they do it? I would think so! This will probably happen after Saudi Arabia falls to revolutionaries...It is the focal point of all of bin Ladens works and dreams. And it will happen if oil drops below $30 a barrel.'' ``Store shelfs are packed with goods. But let that not fool us! These are the detritus from deals made at least a year ago if not longer. There is nothing in the pipeline. Once the shelves are cleared of goods, there will be few replacements.'' ``The US and EU refused to police our bankers and brokers. So the Communist Chinese will do this for us. No one will bank with the West. They will bank with China if China has good controls...And our money will have Mao grinning at us. We deserve this.''

CHINESE CHECKMATE; Culture; Life News.

Thu 2009-01-15 00:00 EST

The Institutional Risk Analyst: On the Prime Solution: Interview with Eric Hovde

The Prime Solution: Interview with Eric Hovde, by The Institutional Risk Analyst (IRA); ``he manifest statist, anti-market tendencies of Ben Bernanke and Tim Geithner should disqualify both of these men from future roles in the economic rebuilding effort''; FICO demise predicted; ``There isn't going to be any [real estate] development in New York once the current projects are complete. Nothing.''; Bear, AIG should all have been put into bankruptcy; ``the same economic team that lit this fuse and let this fuse go 12 years ago is now about to come back into power...It is stunning to me that we are not seeing a wholesale switch-out of these Goldman Sachs participants or their protégés''

Eric Hovde; Institutional Risk Analyst; interview; Prime Solution.

Sun 2008-11-23 00:00 EST

Michael Hudson: Bankers Shake Down Congress and the G-20

(CounterPunch); ``all markets are planned, and have been ever since calendars were developed...Most market structures throughout history have been organized in a way that provides the vested interests with a free lunch. This remains the essence of post-feudal capitalism or as some have expressed it, corporativism.''

Bankers Shake; Congress; G-20; Michael Hudson.

Tue 2008-10-07 00:00 EDT

naked capitalism: China: Less, Not More, Capitalistic?

``post-Tiananmen Square, new Chinese leadership shifted its approach to economic development to one that had more state direction than before''; Yasheng Huang, Capitalism with Chinese Characteristics: Entrepreneurship and the State

capitalist; China; naked capitalism.

Tue 2008-08-26 00:00 EDT

The End of the Beginning -- Developments in the Credit Crisis

The End of the Beginning - Developments in the Credit Crisis, by Satyajit Das (Prudent Bear); 2008-05-27; ``limited recognition of the massive de-leveraging of the global financial system that is under way.'' ``The banking systems ability to supply credit is significantly impaired and will remain so for the foreseeable future.'' ``Changes in financial markets will have a significant impact on many companies that now rely on financial engineering rather than real engineering'' Das proposes: ``holdings and values of risky assets held by banks and investment banks must be accurately determined...Risky assets must be valued on a hold-to-maturity basis...Mark-to-market accounting should be suspended...Capital levels should be set on a bank-by-bank basis by regulators...Capital requirements should be eased...government [should] guarantee of all major bank liabilities''

Begins; credit crisis; develop; ending.

Wed 2008-06-25 00:00 EDT

naked capitalism: Are You Sure the Saudis Can't Pump More Oil?

OPEC threatened oil price increases in 2007 in response to western biofuels development

naked capitalism; Oil; pump; Saudi; sure.

Mon 2008-03-31 00:00 EDT

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Who's Holding The Bag?

Buffett versus Greenspan on derivatives; "the development of credit derivatives has contributed to the stability of the banking system", or "rapidly growing trade in derivatives poses a "mega-catastrophic risk" for the economy"; 2007-07-04

bag; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis; S hold.

Wed 2007-11-21 00:00 EST

Stabroek News

Financial Hypocrisy, by Joseph E. Stiglitz; "capital market liberalization brings instability, but not necessarily growth"; "while the current system may lead to unnecessary instability, and impose huge costs on developing countries, it serves some interests well"

Stabroek News.