zero hedge Thu 2009-11-19 10:23 EST

Guest Post: Dear Prudence, Won't You Come Out To Play?

Contrary Investor

...consumers appear to have for now taken a vow of frugality. Whether by necessity or choice, prudence seems the order of the day. Does that mean consumers are not going to come out to play in the land of increased personal consumption any time soon? We think that's the theme, along with continued household balance sheet reconciliation that must come. Is monetary policy now impotent in an environment where consumers choose not to borrow and spend? If so, that leaves increased fiscal policy as the lever ahead for the government, with all the consequences that come along with that...it is critical to at least be open to the thinking that economic and financial market relationships we have grown to know and love over the past three to four decades are in the midst of meaningful change, perhaps secular change.

comes; Guest Post; play; prudence; Zero Hedge.

The Big Picture Fri 2009-10-23 09:03 EDT

Dick Alford on Opportunities Lost by the Fed

Richard Alford (via Chris Whalen)

Against a backdrop of continued financial fragility and extraordinary policy actions, policymakers are discussing re-balancing global growth, restoring financial stability, and the future of the Dollar as the world's reserve currency. In 2005, Edwin Truman proposed a list of policy measures that if followed would have reduced the US external imbalance and placed the reserve status of the Dollar on better footing. Truman's proposal differed from the standard litany of US fiscal discipline, Dollar adjustment, and increased demand in surplus countries. It called upon the Federal Reserve to slow the growth in US demand. More recent research, by Shin and Adrian, suggests that if the Fed had heeded Truman's prescription, then monetary policy would have also mitigated the recent turmoil in financial markets...

Big Picture; Dick Alford; Fed; opportunity lost.

Sun 2009-10-11 18:48 EDT

The Ongoing Plight of the U.S. "Nightcrawler" - Part 2 | zero hedge

We're just as scroomed as we were a year ago--skying stock markets and gold-hating trolls posting "Gold isn't money" notwithstanding. There is absolutey ZERO chance that the Fed raises their Fed Funds Politburo rates, and a ONE HUNDRED PERCENT CERTAINTY that both the Fed and Uncle Sugar MUST continue their monetizations, back stops and being the "lenders, insurers, and market of last resort" for all things credit, but especially the McHousing market where they have multi-trillion fiatsco exposure. So, it is little wonder that the U.S. fiatsco is getting pounded in the currency casino and that people are piling into PMs in droves--even going so far as to DEMAND physical delivery from the corrupt exchanges, even as the jawboning and pie-holing by the Fed Heads and Treasury twerps continues unabated. Because we are still very much in the midst of the "convulsions" of collapse AND the massive monetary and fiscal insanity the Fed and Uncle are undertaking to fight them.

nightcrawlers; Ongoing Plight; Part 2; U.S.; Zero Hedge.

Willem Buiter's Maverecon Sat 2009-10-10 14:00 EDT

Expect little and you may yet be disappointed

Willem Buiter

...the most disappointing development this year was the performance of president Barack Obama and his administration - and my expectations were modest to begin with...On the fiscal side, Barack Obama is presiding over the biggest peace-time government deficits and public debt build-up ever. According to my back-of-the-envelope calculations there is about a 10 percent of GDP gap between the medium and longer-term spending plans of the Obama administration and the taxes the Congress is willing and able to impose. The reality that you cannot run a West-European welfare state (with decent quality health care, decent pre-school, primary and secondary school education for all), rebuild America's crumbling infrastructure, invest in the environment and fulfill your post-imperial global strategic ambitions while raising 33 percent of GDP in taxes, has not yet dawned on the Obama administration or on the American people at large...Clearly, the qualities one needs to get elected to high office in western democracies are not qualities that are likely to be helpful once you have achieved high office and are expected to govern and lead. To survive the selection process to become president you have to be able to stitch together a coalition of special interests that can provide sufficient financial and sweat equity resources to win this grueling race to the top. Once you get there, you should shed the unfortunate baggage you accumulated on your way up and govern in the interest of all the people. Few can do that. Apparently Obama is not one of them.

disappointment; expectations; Willem Buiter's Maverecon.

Mon 2009-10-05 11:23 EDT

New Bubble Threatens a V-Shaped Rebound

Andy Xie

...What we are seeing now in the global economy is a pure liquidity bubble. It's been manifested in several asset classes. The most prominent are commodities, stocks and government bonds. The story that supports this bubble is that fiscal stimulus would lead to quick economic recovery, and the output gap could keep inflation down. Hence, central banks can keep interest rates low for a couple more years...I think the market is being misled. The driving forces for the current bounce are inventory cycle and government stimulus. The follow-through from corporate capex and consumption are severely constrained by structural challenges. These challenges have origins in the bubble that led to a misallocation of resources. After the bubble burst, a mismatch of supply and demand limited the effectiveness of either stimulus or a bubble in creating demand...he structural challenges arise from global imbalance and industries that over-expanded due to exaggerated demand supported in the past by cheap credit and high asset prices. At the global level, the imbalance is between deficit-bound Anglo-Saxon economies (Australia, Britain and the United States) and surplus emerging economies (mainly China and oil exporters)...The old equilibrium cannot be restored, and many structural barriers stand in the way of a new equilibrium. The current recovery is based on a temporary and unstable equilibrium in which the United States slows the rise of its national savings rate by increasing the fiscal deficit, and China lowers its savings surplus by boosting government spending and inflating an assets bubble.

New Bubble Threatens; Shaped Rebound.

Wed 2009-09-16 19:19 EDT

Why Default on U.S. Treasuries is Likely | Library of Economics and Liberty

Jeffrey Rogers Hummel

Almost everyone is aware that federal government spending in the United States is scheduled to skyrocket, primarily because of Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. Recent "stimulus" packages have accelerated the process. Only the naively optimistic actually believe that politicians will fully resolve this looming fiscal crisis with some judicious combination of tax hikes and program cuts. Many predict that, instead, the government will inflate its way out of this future bind, using Federal Reserve monetary expansion to fill the shortfall between outlays and receipts. But I believe, in contrast, that it is far more likely that the United States will be driven to an outright default on Treasury securities, openly reneging on the interest due on its formal debt and probably repudiating part of the principal. Treasury default considered likely.

default; economic; liberties; libraries; likely; U. S. treasuries.

naked capitalism Sun 2009-09-13 15:35 EDT

Is economic boom around the corner?

Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns

...growth underpinned by high debt accumulation and low savings can continue for a very, very long time. In the United States, by virtue of America's possession of the world's reserve currency, an increase in aggregate debt levels has been successfully financed for well over twenty-five years...it is wholly conceivable that we could experience a multi-year economic expansion on the back of renewed monetary and fiscal expansion...Marc Faber: ``Don't underestimate the power of printing money''...but NDK continues to ``disrespect the power of printing money. There are few transmission mechanisms to get that printed money into the real economy.'' pebird comments (paraphrasing Faber?): The US (and Europe) per capita wealth must be driven down to a global benchmark - that is what globalization means. Which is easier - bringing 800 million Chinese plus 500 million Indian workers up to Western standards or 400 million Western workers down to global standards?

corner; economic boom; naked capitalism.

Tue 2009-06-16 00:00 EDT

naked capitalism: Guest Post: The Fake Recovery

``he underlying systemic issues in the financial sector are being papered over through various mechanisms designed to surreptitiously recapitalize banks while monetary and fiscal stimulus induces a rebound before many banks' inherent insolvency becomes a problem''

Fake Recovery; Guest Post; naked capitalism.

Mon 2009-01-19 00:00 EST

naked capitalism: Wolf Versus Pettis on US Stimulus, Fiscal Deficit (Not for the Fainthearted)

Fainthearted; Fiscal deficit; naked capitalism; stimulus; Wolf Versus Pettis.

Fri 2009-01-16 00:00 EST

Disabusing Popular Assumptions | The Wall Street Examiner

Disabusing Popular Assumptions, by Lee Adler | The Wall Street Examiner; ``Once the forces of deflation have been set in motion monetary and fiscal policy are powerless to stop them.''

Disabusing Popular Assumptions; Wall Street Examiner.

Fri 2009-01-16 00:00 EST

naked capitalism: Some Cautionary Observations from Marc Faber

``Everybody seems to think that, thanks to the government's monetary and fiscal interventions, this recession will come nowhere near the 1930s slump. However, I think it might be far worse and precisely because of the interventions.''

Cautionary Observations; Marc Faber; naked capitalism.

Thu 2009-01-15 00:00 EST

Jesse's Café Américain: Did the New Deal Fail?

Jesse's Café Américain: Did the New Deal Fail? ``The New Deal was so "ineffective" that the Fed panicked and doubled reserve requirements in a draconian pre-emptive response because they feared inflation!'' ''In a fiat regime inflation and deflation are primarily...the end result of a series of policy, fiscal, and political decisions.''

Jesse's Café Américain; New Deal failed.

Thu 2009-01-15 00:00 EST

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Fiscal Insanity Virus Rapidly Spreading The Globe (Part 1)

Fiscal Insanity Virus Rapidly Spreading; globe; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis; Part 1.

Thu 2009-01-15 00:00 EST

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Fiscal Insanity Virus Rapidly Spreading The Globe (Part 2)

Fiscal Insanity Virus Rapidly Spreading; globe; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis; Part 2.

Tue 2008-10-07 00:00 EDT

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Fed's Fisher Says Bank Rescue Plan Would Worsen Fiscal `Chasm'

chasm; Fed's Fisher Says Bank Rescue Plan; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis; worsening fiscal.

Thu 2008-01-24 00:00 EST

Tomgram: Chalmers Johnson, How to Sink America

"Military Keynesianism"; "morally obscene", "fiscally unsustainable" US military expenditures

Chalmers Johnson; Sink America; Tomgram.