Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Wed 2010-05-19 15:00 EDT

Retail Sales Rise: Where? Let's Take a Look; Expect Nothing Less Than Panic

Michael Shedlock

...To understand why the Advance Retail Sales report is completely bogus, we must first analyze the Census Bureau Methodology...The published numbers are based on "same store sales". Think about all the companies that have gone bankrupt. Take Circuit City for an example. Gone. The doors are closed. Some of those shoppers went to Best Buy where same store sales rose. Also remember that Best Buy and many other chains closed weak stores. The result: same store sales went up again. Government methodology for reporting retail sales is based on sampling stores in existence. It does not factor in stores not in existence but recently were. Nor does it handle closed stores when the chain is still doing business. Government reporting of retail sales is fatally flawed. To understand what is going on, all one has to look at actual tax data. Heard any rosy numbers from states about sales tax collections?

expectations; Let's take; looking; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis; panic; Retail Sales Rise.

billy blog Wed 2010-05-19 12:57 EDT

Naked Keynesianism

New York Times columnist and Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman occasionally brushes up against an understanding of how the macroeconomy works. Some people actually have said to me that he does get it but chooses for political purposes not to disclose a full understanding of the basic principles of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). Well in his most recent column -- We're Not Greece -- published May 13, 2010, I think you can conclude that when left to his own devices he doesn't have a clue about what is really happening in the macroeconomy. So today, we are exposing his mainstream (neo-classical) keynesian nakedness -- he is now naked and without clothes...

Billy Blog; Naked Keynesianism.

Wed 2010-05-19 11:56 EDT

billy blog >> Blog Archive >> When you've got friends like this ... Part 3

...how limiting the so-called progressive policy input has become. One could characterise it as submissive and defeatist. But the main thing I find problematic is that its compliance is based on faulty understandings of the way the monetary system operates and the opportunities that a sovereign government has to advance well-being. Progressives today seem to be falling for the myth that the financial markets are now the de facto governments of our nations and what they want they should get. It becomes a self-reinforcing perspective and will only deepen the malaise facing the world...When the neo-liberals cry about the burdens of the public deficits that the future generations will have to bear they are talking nonsense. The actual burden we are leaving for our children and their children is the dead-weight losses of real income and the opportunities that that income would have provided them...

Billy Blog; blogs Archive; friends; Part 3.

naked capitalism Tue 2010-05-11 09:04 EDT

Richard Smith: Another Nail in the ``Hoocoodanode'' Defense, Circa April 2007

Richard Smith

Here's someone with his head screwed on, back in April 2007, who proves singlehandedly that ``hoocoodanode'' was no defense for failing to anticipate the implosion of the shadow banking system (more on this prescient analyst in due course)...So who is this fellow who got it, back in that mythical time when nobody knew what was going on? According to an email correspondent of mine, he is ``a no-name equity guy'' in London. Actually his name is Henry Maxey, and he is chief investment officer and chief executive elect of Ruffer LLP, a small London fund manager. So there's no chance of making him US Treasury Secretary or head of the NYFRB, I'm afraid...

Circa April 2007; defense; Hoocoodanode; nail; naked capitalism; Richard Smith.

Tue 2010-04-27 08:27 EDT

Web of Debt - COMPUTERIZED FRONT RUNNING: ANOTHER GOLDMAN-DOMINATED FRAUD

Ellen Brown

While the SEC is busy investigating Goldman Sachs, it might want to look into another Goldman-dominated fraud: computerized front running using high-frequency trading programs...Wall Street commentator Max Keiser...claims to have invented one of the most widely used programs for doing the rigging. Not that that's what he meant to invent. His patented program was designed to take the manipulation out of markets. It would do this by matching buyers with sellers automatically, eliminating ``front running'' -- brokers buying or selling ahead of large orders coming in from their clients. The computer program was intended to remove the conflict of interest that exists when brokers who match buyers with sellers are also selling from their own accounts. But the program fell into the wrong hands and became the prototype for automated trading programs that actually facilitate front running...Keiser and HSX co-founder Michael Burns applied for a patent for a ``computer-implemented securities trading system with a virtual specialist function'' in 1996, and U.S. patent no. 5960176 was awarded in 1999...The listing for Keiser's patent shows that it has been referenced by 132 others involving automated program trading or HFT...

Computerized Front Running; debt; Goldman-dominated fraud; Web.

Tue 2010-04-27 08:22 EDT

Anecdotal Economics: A Chicken in Every VAT

...The retail consumer is back, and she* is in the mood to shop, we reliably are told. The Census Bureau reported March 2010 Advance Retail and Food Service Sales improved 7.6 percent from a year ago, and for 1Q2010 are 5.5 percent above 1Q2009...So why do state sales tax revenues tell a different, disconnected story? In the Nelson A. Rockefeller Institute of Government's April 2010 State Revenue Report, which chronicles the woeful status of state tax collections, concludes that sales tax collections fell almost 9.0 percent in 2009, a statistically significant 2.8 percent more than the reported decline in retail and food service sales made up estimated by the Census Bureau...It's a significant disconnect between theory (Census Bureau) and reality (actual sales tax collections), much as the similar, significant disconnect between the Employment Situation reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (theory), which appears to be masking the true extent of unemployment in America with all those marginally attached and discouraged workers, and the meaningful decline in actual payroll tax withholdings (reality), as reported by the Treasury Department in its Daily Treasury Statements...

Anecdotal Economics; chickens; VAT.

naked capitalism Thu 2010-04-22 18:21 EDT

Guest Post: Are Interest Rate Derivatives a Ticking Time Bomb?

Washington's Blog

...Most economists and financial institutions assume that interest rate derivatives help to stabilize the economy. But cumulatively, they can actually increase risky behavior, just as portfolio insurance previously did. As Nassim Taleb has shown, behavior which appears to decrease risk can actually mask long-term risks and lead to huge blow ups. Moreover, there is a real danger of too many people using the same strategy at once... Given that the market for interest rate derivatives is orders of magnitude larger than credit default swap market -- let alone portfolio insurance -- the risks of a ``black swan'' event based on interest rate derivatives should be taken seriously...

Guest Post; Interest Rate Derivatives; naked capitalism; ticking time bomb.

naked capitalism Wed 2010-04-07 19:53 EDT

Throwing in the towel on policy makers

Edward Harrison

...Early on in this crisis, I had advocated a number of policy paths which I think would have been infinitely superior to the ones actually chosen by the Bush and Obama Administrations, especially in regards to limiting the socialization of losses. I am talking about massive fiscal stimulus, big bank pre-privatization, a move away from the asset-based economy and the accumulation of debt, and a reallocation of resources. Quite frankly, none of these suggestions have been taken on...

naked capitalism; policy makers; throws; Towel.

Culture of Life News Tue 2010-04-06 10:23 EDT

Ireland And US Will Be Devoured By Derivatives Beast

Elaine Supkis

The banking mess in the West continues. It has rather deep roots. That is, we decapitalized our own banking system long, long ago. The fix for this was to create a fake banking system with virtually no real capital reserves at all. This was possible thanks to the floating fiat currency created when Nixon suddenly cut the gold standard back in 1971. By 1987, the banking collapse was tremendous during a deflationary time that followed a hyperinflation era. This fix created conditions that caused the near-total collapse in Western banking...So far, governments in the West are being bailed out by Asia. And this is being done so Asia can continue to rapidly expand its own industrial base. This savage business gets worse and worse over time due to the self-feedback system of this debt expansion: you get more credit from export powers via letting them export even more to your own home base. So as capital vanishes, the need for debt shoots upwards and the system continues to get more and more unbalanced...Sure, we have little inflation except in important commodities but this is due to the Goddess of Zero slashing away at the mountain of debt, using the default tool to fix this mess in a very brutal way. Unfortunately, the bankers still control our `democracy' so they are moving all their losses onto our books and far from things going to zero, it is actually heading towards infinity: infinite debts owed by the taxpayers who want to continue stupidly cutting taxes while increasing credit based on virtually no capital at all! Sheesh.

Culture; Derivative Beast; devouring; Ireland; Life News.

zero hedge Mon 2010-04-05 15:14 EDT

Former Goldman Commodities Research Analyst Confirms LMBA OTC Gold Market Is "Paper Gold" Ponzi

When we put up a link to last week's CFTC hearing webcast little did we know that it would end up being the veritable (physical) gold mine (no pun intended) of information about what really transpires in the commodities market. First, we obtained direct evidence from Andrew Maguire (who may or may not have been the target of an attempt at "bodily harm" as reported yesterday) of extensive manipulation in the silver market. Today, Adrian Douglas, director of GATA, adds to the mountain of evidence that the commodities market, and the CFTC, stand behind what is potentially the biggest market manipulation scheme in the history of capital markets (we are assuming for the time being that all allegations of the Fed manipulating the broader equity and credit markets are completely baseless). Using the testimony of a clueless Jeffrey Christian, formerly a staffer at the Commodities Research Group in the Goldman Sachs Investment Research Department and now head and founder of the CPM Group, Douglas confirms that the "LBMA trades over 100 times the amount of gold it actually has to back the trades."

Goldman Commodities Research Analyst Confirms LMBA OTC Gold Market; paper gold; Ponzi; Zero Hedge.

naked capitalism Sat 2010-04-03 09:55 EDT

Guest Post: Top Analyst Says ``Developed Market Governments Are Insolvent By Any Reasonable Definition''

Washington's Blog

Dylan Grice, a top analyst for European financial giant Société Générale, writes: Developed market governments are insolvent by any reasonable definition. Who could have known? Everyone, actually...Grice also says: Eventually, there will be a crisis of such magnitude that the political winds change direction, and become blustering gales forcing us onto the course of fiscal sustainability. Until it does, the temptation to inflate will remain, as will economists with spurious mathematical rationalisations as to why such inflation will make everything OK . Until it does, the outlook will remain favorable for gold. But eventually, majority opinion will accept the painful contractionary medicine because it will have to. That will be the time to sell gold.

developed market governments; Guest Post; insolvent; naked capitalism; reasonable definition; Top Analyst Says.

Fri 2010-03-12 08:45 EST

AlterNet: The Richest 1% Have Captured America's Wealth -- What's It Going to Take to Get It Back?

David DeGraw, Amped Status

...while US workers are now working more hours and have become dramatically more productive and profitable, our pay is actually declining and all the dramatic increases in wealth are going straight into the pockets of the Economic Elite...the average US citizen is forced to give up approximately 30% of our income in taxes. This tax system is now strategically designed to flow straight into the hands of the Economic Elite. A huge percentage of our tax dollars ultimately end up in their pockets. The past decade proves that -- whether it's the Republicans or the Democrats running the government -- our tax money is not going into our community, it is going into the pockets of the billionaires who have bought off both parties...most every serious economist knows that due to so much theft and debt created in the tax system, the only way to fix things, other than stopping the theft and seizing the trillions that have been stolen, will be for the government to cut important social funding and drastically raise our taxes...Trillions more in our spending on food and fuel has been stolen due to fraudulent stock transactions and overcharging...we have the most expensive health care system in the world and we are forced to pay twice as much as other countries, and the overall care we get in return ranks 37th in the world...The American worker is screwed over every step of the way, and it all starts with the explosion in the cost of a college education. This is one of the Economic Elite's most devastating weapons...The American dream has turned into a nightmare. The economic system is a sophisticated prison cell; the indentured servant is now an indebted wage slave; whips and chains have evolved into debts...

AlterNet; Captured America's Wealth; Go; richest 1; s; take.

THE PRAGMATIC CAPITALIST Tue 2010-03-09 17:12 EST

INSIDER SELLING HITS NEW 2010 HIGH

TPC

The recent uptick in stocks has not been met with much enthusiasm by corporate insiders. In fact, pessimism rules the day in the land of insider buying and selling trends...The selling was the highest level experienced this year. Interestingly, as the rally has continued insiders have actually increased their selling...

INSIDER SELLING HITS NEW 2010 HIGH; pragmatic capitalists.

naked capitalism Sun 2010-02-28 13:13 EST

Das: Mark to Make Believe -- Still Toxic After All These Years!

Satyajit Das

n 2007, as the credit crisis commenced, paradoxically, nobody actually defaulted. Outside of sub-prime delinquencies, corporate defaults were at a record low. Instead, investors in high quality (AAA or AA) rated securities, that are unlikely to suffer real losses if held to maturity, faced paper -- mark-to-market (``MtM'') -- losses. In modern financial markets, market values drive asset values, profits and losses, risk calculations and the value of collateral supporting loans. Accounting standards, both in the U.S.A. and internationally, are now based on theoretically sound market values that are problematic in practice. The standards emerged from the past financial crisis where the use of ``historic cost'' accounting meant that losses on loans remained undisclosed because they continued to be carried at face value. The standards also reflect the fact that many modern financial instruments (such as derivatives) can only be accounted for in MtM framework. MtM accounting itself is flawed. There are difficulties in establishing real values of many instruments. It creates volatility in earnings attributable to inefficiencies in markets rather than real changes in financial position...

Das; Make-Believe; marked; naked capitalism; toxic; years.

Sun 2010-02-07 10:10 EST

Web of Debt - THE BATTLE OF THE TITANS: JPMORGAN VS. GOLDMAN SACHS

Ellen Brown

The late Libertarian economist Murray Rothbard wrote that U.S. politics since 1900, when William Jennings Bryan narrowly lost the presidency, has been a struggle between two competing banking giants, the Morgans and the Rockefellers. The parties would sometimes change hands, but the puppeteers pulling the strings were always one of these two big-money players...In 2000, the Rockefellers and the Morgans joined forces, when JPMorgan and Chase Manhattan merged to become JPMorgan Chase Co. Today the battling banking titans are JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, an investment bank that gained notoriety for its speculative practices in the 1920s...Goldman's superpower status comes from something more than just access to the money spigots of the banking system. It actually has the ability to manipulate markets...But Goldman Sachs has been caught in this blatant market manipulation so often that the JPMorgan faction of the banking empire has finally had enough.

battle; debt; Goldman Sachs; JPMorgan; titans; Web.

Tue 2010-01-12 23:32 EST

Dr. Edwin Vieira, Jr. on the Failure of the Public Sector, the Coming Military Crackdown and What Can Be Done to Stop It

...The foremost problem-because it is the source of, or contributes significantly to, almost every economic difficulty now plaguing this country-is the inherent and ineradicable instability of the present monetary and banking systems centered around the Federal Reserve System. The second problem derives from the first. It is the ever-accelerating development of a first-class para-militarized police-state apparatus centered around the United States Department of Homeland Security, with its tentacles reaching down into every police force throughout the States and localities. Fundamentally, this apparatus is not, and never was, designed to deal with international "terrorism". If that were its goal, its first task would be absolutely to secure the southern border of the United States, which it has never seriously attempted to do. Rather, it is being set up to deal with what the political-cum-financial Establishment anticipates (and I believe rightly so) will be massive social and political unrest bordering on chaos throughout America when the monetary and banking systems finally implode in the not-so-distant future-surely in hyperinflation, and probably in hyperinflation coupled with a gut-wrenching depression. Of these two problems, the second is actually the more dangerous...

Coming Military Crackdown; Dr. Edwin Vieira; failure; Jr; public sector; stop.