Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Thu 2010-07-22 15:46 EDT

Ponzi "Shark Loans" Fuel China's Housing Bubble; Home Sales Plunge 44% in Xiamen; Bubble Busts in Tianjin

Michael Shedlock

China's property bubble is now on the verge of collapse. Transaction volumes are significantly down and declining volume is how property bubbles always burst. In simple terms, the pool of greater fools eventually runs out. In China's case, the pool of fools is heavily involved in "loan shark" schemes where speculators hope property values rise fast enough to cover the interest.

Bubble bust; Fuel China's Housing Bubble; Home Sales Plunge 44; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis; Ponzi; Shark Loans; Tianjin; Xiamen.

Tue 2010-06-01 17:29 EDT

billy blog >> Blog Archive >> In the spirt of debate ... my reply

Bill Mitchell

...Steve Keen and I agreed to foster a debate about where modern monetary theory sits with his work on debt-deflation. So yesterday his blog carried the following post, which included a 1000-odd word precis written by me describing what I see as the essential characteristics of modern monetary theory. The discussion is on-going on that site and I invite you to follow it if you are interested. Rather than comment on all the comments over on Steve's site, I decided to collate them here (in part) and help develop the understanding that way. That is what follows today... We distinguish the horizontal dimension (which entails all transactions between entities in the non-government sector) from the vertical dimension (which entails all transactions between the government and non-government sector)...A properly specified model will show you emphatically that the horizontal transactions between household, firms, banks and foreigners (which is the domain of circuit theory) have to net to zero even if asset portfolios are changing in composition. For every asset created there will be a corresponding liability created at the same time...you will make errors if there is not an explicit understanding that in an accounting (stock-flow) consistent sense all these transaction will net to zero. In adopting this understanding you might abstract from analysing the vertical transactions that introduced the high-powered money in the first place, but never deny its importance in setting the scene for the horizontal transactions to occur. I think the differences between Steve's models and modern monetary theory are two-fold. First, I do not think that Steve's model is stock-flow consistent across all sectors. By leaving out the government sector (even implicitly) essential insights are lost that would avoid conclusions that do not obey basic and accepted national accounting (and financial accounting) rules. This extends to how we define money. Second, I think Steve uses accounting in a different way to that which is broadly accepted. It might be that for mathematical nicety or otherwise this is the chosen strategy but you cannot then claim that your models are ground in the operational reality of the fiat monetary system we live in. I have no problem with abstract modelling. But modern monetary theory is firmly ground in the operational reality and is totally stock-flow consistent across all sectors. If we used the same definitions and rendered Steve's model stock-flow consistent in the same way as modern monetary theory then Steve's endogenous money circuits would come up with exactly the same results as the horizontal dimensions in modern monetary theory. His results might look a bit different in accounting terms but most of the message he wishes to portray about the dangers of Ponzi stages in the private debt accumulation process would still hold.

Billy Blog; blogs Archive; Debate; reply; spirt.

The Wall Street Examiner Sun 2010-05-09 10:02 EDT

The Minsky Cruise (part 3, Business)

...While non-financial domestic corporate profits have shrunk from a Korean War inspired 11% of GDP to average around 5% of GDP since 1970, the financial sector's profits have been growing...The love affair with finance and disdain for what, during the tech boom, we called the "bricks and mortar" industry- and admittedly a failure, by some in those industries, to accept the transition to maturity- has inspired, for want of a better word, envy in the non-financial sector. While financial sector stocks seem to levitate on their own, non-financial sector stocks, if intent can be inferred from behavior, are believed to require a boost. I suspect the use of options as payment has something to do with this as well...Additionally, the non-financial sector, since the mid-80s has- a true sign of envy- opted to copy finance, by breaking into that field. GE Capital and GMAC Financial are two prominent examples...To paraphrase Nixon, "we're all Ponzis, now."

business; Minsky Cruise; Part 3; Wall Street Examiner.

The Wall Street Examiner Sun 2010-05-09 09:58 EDT

The Minsky Cruise (part 2, Households)

...Now for the Minsky part. The theory above, in layman's terms, argues that over time, when an economy expands without serious contractions, finances will become increasingly risky. Minsky wrote of a shift from hedge finance (when debt, both principal and interest, can be serviced from cash flows) through speculative finance (when debt must be rolled over as only interest payments can be serviced from cash flows) and into Ponzi finance (when cash flows cannot cover interest payments and thus new debt must be added or assets sold). The idea in the Ponzi finance stage is that asset appreciation will compensate for the extra risk...I don't mean to suggest we (collectively) are broke, just that, as Minsky argued (and the data bears out) our balance sheets are increasingly betting on real estate and equity price appreciation with borrowed money...

Household; Minsky Cruise; Part 2; Wall Street Examiner.

Jesse's Café Américain Sun 2010-05-09 09:08 EDT

PLUNGE! 1987 Style Sudden Drop in US Stocks Driven by Program Trading and a Ponzi Market Structure

Jesse

US equities were gripped by panic selling as the Dow plunged almost 1,000 points driven by a cascade of 100 share high frequency program trading, estimated to have been about 80% of volume. Gold rocketed higher to $1,210...This is highly reminiscent of the 1987 crash driven by a flawed market structure based on automated trading and bad theories. The entire stock market rally which we have seen this year off the February lows resembles a low volume Ponzi scheme, and formed a huge air pocket under prices. This US equity rally was driven by technically oriented buying from the Banks and the hedge funds. There was and still is a lack of legitimate institutional buying at these price levels. This was machine driven speculation enabled by the lack of reform in a system riddled with corruption...

1987 Style Sudden Drop; Jesse's Café Américain; plunge; Ponzi Market Structure; program-trading; Stocks driven.

Jesse's Café Américain Thu 2010-05-06 13:44 EDT

Control Frauds HyperInflate and Extend Bubbles Maximizing Damage - A Control Fraud at Work in the Silver Market Short Positions?

Jesse

Here is a working paper by William K. Black about 'control frauds' and how they relate to the most recent credit crisis in the United States, a breakdown of stewardship that has placed the rest of the world's financial sector at risk as well...``Control frauds'' are seemingly legitimate entities controlled by persons that use them as a fraud ``weapon.'' A single control fraud can cause greater losses than all other forms of property crime combined. This article addresses the role of control fraud in financial crises. Financial control frauds' primary weapon is accounting. Fraudulent lenders produce exceptional short-term ``profits'' through a four-part strategy: extreme growth (Ponzi), lending to uncreditworthy borrowers, extreme leverage, and minimal loss reserves...

Control Frauds HyperInflate; controls Fraud; Extend Bubbles Maximizing Damage; Jesse's Café Américain; Silver Market Short Positions; working.

Jesse's Café Américain Mon 2010-04-12 18:11 EDT

Most Wall Street Banks Using Lehman Style Accounting Trickery Enabled by the Fed to Hide Their Risk

Jesse

This analysis from the Wall Street Journal indicates that most of the big US Banks are engaging in the same kind of repo accounting at the end of the quarter that Lehman Brothers was doing to hide their financial instability until deteriorating credit conditions and liquidity problems made them precipitously collapse, as all ponzi schemes and financial frauds do when the truth becomes known. The basic exercise is to hold big leverage and dodgy debt, but swap it off your books with the Fed at the end of each quarter for a short period of time when you have to report your holdings...

Fed; hide; Jesse's Café Américain; Risk; Wall Street Banks Using Lehman Style Accounting Trickery Enabled.

Jesse's Café Américain Wed 2010-04-07 19:03 EDT

King World Interview with Andrew Maguire the Silver Market 'Whistleblower'

Jesse

"The Biggest Fraud in the World" I do not know what to think about this, except to just offer it up to you for your own information. I am disappointed, however, that only the blogs, and almost no one in the mainstream media, have bothered to cover this story and to speak to the principals, and to either debunk them, support them, or even consider what they have to say. This really is like the Harry Markopolos story, trying to get a hearing on the Madoff ponzi scheme, and being repeatedly ignored, intimidated, and discouraged in every way possible by the establishment, and even fearing for his life... I have now listened to this tape five times, carefully. It is a bombshell. This has to be dealt with, one way or the other. Bring it out into the light of day, and let the facts be known. This is either the equivalent of the fictionalized testimony on the order of the Salem Witch trials, or one of the most damning accusations of malfeasance in office against quasi-governmental agencies, and probably US officials, since Teapot Dome...

Andrew Maguire; Jesse's Café Américain; King World Interview; silver markets; Whistleblower.

zero hedge Wed 2010-04-07 18:31 EDT

Quantitative Easing And Its Effect On Inflation And The Economy

Sancho Ponzi

The Fed's response to the financial meltdown was twofold: Interest rates were effectively set at zero, and the monetary base was increased 140%. While it is not known exactly what formula the Fed used to arrive at the 140% increase of the monetary base, the expansion from roughly 800 billion to 2.2 trillion roughly correlates with the asset backed securities since purchased by the Fed...Rather than an attempt to spur bank lending, Bernanke, like Paulson before him, employed QE strictly to offload toxic assets from bank balance sheets in an attempt to make banks and other financial institutions whole, with the effect of preserving historically inflated asset valuations for residential real estate. As a result, massive increases in federal spending have been required to offset the erosion of private sector GDP...

economy; effect; Inflation; Quantitative Easing; Zero Hedge.

zero hedge Wed 2010-04-07 18:26 EDT

The Latest Gold Fraud Bombshell: Canada's Only Bullion Bank Gold Vault Is Practically Empty

Continuing on the trail of exposing what is rapidly becoming one of the largest frauds in commodity markets history is the most recent interview by Eric King with GATA's Adrian Douglas, Harvey Orgen (who recently testified before the CFTC hearing) and his son, Lenny, in which the two discuss their visit to the only bullion bank vault in Canada, that of ScotiaMocatta, located at 40 King Street West in Toronto, and find the vault is practically empty..."The game ends when the people who own all these paper obligations say enough and take physical delivery, and that's when the mess will occur."...It is funny that central bankers thought they could take the ponzi mentality of infinite dilution of all assets coupled with infinite debt issuance, as they have done to fiat money, and apply it to gold, in essence piling leverage upon leverage. They underestimated gold holders' willingness to be diluted into perpetuity - when the realization that gold owned is just 1% of what is physically deliverable, you will see the biggest bank run in history.

Bullion Bank Gold Vault; Canada's; Latest Gold Fraud Bombshell; practically empty; Zero Hedge.

zero hedge Mon 2010-04-05 15:14 EDT

Former Goldman Commodities Research Analyst Confirms LMBA OTC Gold Market Is "Paper Gold" Ponzi

When we put up a link to last week's CFTC hearing webcast little did we know that it would end up being the veritable (physical) gold mine (no pun intended) of information about what really transpires in the commodities market. First, we obtained direct evidence from Andrew Maguire (who may or may not have been the target of an attempt at "bodily harm" as reported yesterday) of extensive manipulation in the silver market. Today, Adrian Douglas, director of GATA, adds to the mountain of evidence that the commodities market, and the CFTC, stand behind what is potentially the biggest market manipulation scheme in the history of capital markets (we are assuming for the time being that all allegations of the Fed manipulating the broader equity and credit markets are completely baseless). Using the testimony of a clueless Jeffrey Christian, formerly a staffer at the Commodities Research Group in the Goldman Sachs Investment Research Department and now head and founder of the CPM Group, Douglas confirms that the "LBMA trades over 100 times the amount of gold it actually has to back the trades."

Goldman Commodities Research Analyst Confirms LMBA OTC Gold Market; paper gold; Ponzi; Zero Hedge.

Jesse's Café Américain Tue 2010-03-09 17:47 EST

Iceland Voters Reject Bank Bailouts in Crushing Electoral Defeat; Neo-Liberalism In Context

Jesse

...Iceland is a victim of the neo-liberal economic deregulation of the 1990's, in which a few bankers can buy the government, and rack up enormous profits for themselves in Ponzi like leverage, and then attempt to socialize the debt back to the people when their schemes collapse...

context; crushing electoral defeat; Iceland Voters Reject Bank Bailouts; Jesse's Café Américain; neo-liberalism.

Taibblog Thu 2010-01-07 18:20 EST

Fannie, Freddie, and the New Red and Blue

Matt Taibbi

...what we've learned in the last few years as one scandal after another spilled onto the front pages is that the bubble economies of the last two decades were not merely monstrous Ponzi schemes that destroyed trillions in wealth while making a small handful of people rich. They were also a profound expression of the fundamentally criminal nature of our political system, in which state power/largess and the private pursuit of (mostly short-term) profit were brilliantly fused in a kind of ongoing theft scheme that sought to instant-cannibalize all the wealth America had stored up during its postwar glory, in the process keeping politicians in office and bankers in beach homes while continually moving the increasingly inevitable disaster to the future.

blue; Fannie; Freddie; New red; Taibblog.

Jesse's Café Américain Mon 2009-12-28 21:07 EST

Who Is Buying All These US Treasuries (And Can They Keep It Up in 2010)?

Jesse

...according to the government, US households are absolutely piling into US sovereign and corporate debt at record levels, and at record low interest rates. And almost no one but the Fed is buying Agency Debt...this is why I think we might see quite a bloodbath in the bonds in 2010, as mom and pop get skinned by the Street for weighing in so heavily on this one sided trade in US sovereign debt. The US household sector is a slow moving convoy, presenting a traditional and tempting target for the Wall Street wolf packs...Sprott Asset Management says: "Our concern now is that this is all starting to resemble one giant Ponzi scheme. We all know that the Fed has been active in the market for T-bills...under the auspices of Quantitative Easing, they bought almost 50% of the new Treasury issues in Q2 and almost 30% in Q3...We are now in a situation, however, where the Fed is printing dollars to buy Treasuries as a means of faking the Treasury's ability to attract outside capital. If our research proves anything, it's that the regular buyers of US debt are no longer buying, and it amazes us that the US can successfully issue a record number Treasuries in this environment without the slightest hiccup in the market."

2010; buy; Jesse's Café Américain; keeping; Treasury.

zero hedge Mon 2009-12-28 15:05 EST

Guest Post: Deficit Doubles for Government's Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp.

TraderMark

...let's take a look at the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp - another Ponzi scheme in a country now running a series of them, full tilt, concurrently. Also known as "prosperity". The PBGC bailout will just be a pebble versus what could be faced in the greater pension system as a whole... $1 trillion?

deficit double; Government's Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp; Guest Post; Zero Hedge.

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Fri 2009-12-18 09:52 EST

China Faces Crash Scenario

Michael Shedlock

Problems in China continue to mount. Money supply is growing rampantly out of control, property prices are in a bubble, exports are weak, commodity speculation is pervasive, and GDP growth is more of a mirage than real...I side with Andy Xie who states ``China's asset markets are a Ponzi scheme''...Various Chinese asset bubbles are guaranteed to pop, but as I have said many times, the timing of such events is unknown. In this case however, I am more apt to believe sooner, rather than later.

China Faces Crash Scenario; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis.

zero hedge Wed 2009-11-25 11:40 EST

Neil Barofski's AIG Counterparty Payment Report Released; Demands Federal Reserve Transparency

The full SIGTARP report on AIG and its counterparty payments has been released. It contains all you need to know about the NYFED's bailout of Goldman Sachs. We are currently going through the report, and will post our findings as we have them...the most critical conclusion presented by Neil Barofsky: The SIGTARP blasts the Fed's ongoing desire to keep everything hidden and under a layer of opacity, as it keeps on lying to taxpayers that all is fine with the US economy, and urges investors to part with their hard-earned dollars and "invest" in toxic husks of zombie companies, when it knows full well that the entire financial system is constantly on the cusp of yet another collapse, and the market ponzi scheme could collapse at any minute.

Demands Federal Reserve Transparency; Neil Barofski's AIG Counterparty Payment Report Released; Zero Hedge.

naked capitalism Fri 2009-10-23 09:50 EDT

Guest Post: The Ongoing Cover Up of the Truth Behind the Financial Crisis May Lead to Another Crash

George Washington of Washington's Blog

William K. Black -- professor of economics and law, and the senior regulator during the S & L crisis -- says that that the government's entire strategy now -- as during the S&L crisis -- is to cover up how bad things are (''the entire strategy is to keep people from getting the facts'')...PhD economist Dean Baker made a similar point, lambasting the Federal Reserve for blowing the bubble, and pointing out that those who caused the disaster are trying to shift the focus as fast as they can...Economist Thomas Palley says that Wall Street also has a vested interest in covering up how bad things are...The media has largely parroted what the White House and Wall Street were saying...One of the foremost experts on structured finance and derivatives -- Janet Tavakoli -- says that rampant fraud and Ponzi schemes caused the financial crisis. University of Texas economics professor James K. Galbraith agrees...Congress woman Marcy Kaptur says that there was rampant fraud leading up to the crash...Black and economist Simon Johnson also state that the banks committed fraud by making loans to people that they knew would default, to make huge profits during the boom, knowing that the taxpayers would bail them out when things went bust.

Crash; Financial Crisis; Guest Post; lead; naked capitalism; Ongoing Cover; truth.

Thu 2009-10-22 14:25 EDT

Nieman Watchdog > Commentary > Where's the reporting on the fraud that led to the crash?

University of Texas economist and author James Galbraith believes the press has paid too little attention to investigating the ``criminal and felonious behavior'' involved in the economic crash of last year. ``The press as a whole used [Ponzi-schemer] Bernie Madoff as the emblem of wrongdoing, but compared to the wrongdoing in the housing sector, the Madoff scandal was small-bore,'' Galbraith told Nieman Watchdog in a recent interview. ``The press has tended a bit to treat this issue [mortgage related fraud] as a kind of boys-will-be-boys phenomenon. The press has not been aggressive in investigating this the way they should, to point out to readers the extent to which we're talking about fraud -- criminal, felonious behavior -- that will end up with people in the penitentiary.''

commentary; Crash; fraud; led; Nieman Watchdog; report; s.

Jesse's Café Américain Sun 2009-10-11 15:55 EDT

The Speculative Bubble in Equities and the Case for Deflation, Stagflation and Implosion

Jesse

As part of their program of 'quantitative easing' which is another name for currency devaluation through extraordinary expansion of the monetary base, the Fed has very obviously created an inflationary bubble in the US equity market...The monetary stimulus of the Fed and the Treasury to help the economy is similar to relief aid sent to a suffering Third World country. It is intercepted and seized by a despotic regime and allocated to its local warlords, with very little going to help the people...quantitative easing that is not part of an overall program to reform, regulate, and renew the system to change and correct the elements that caused the crisis in the first place, is nothing more than a Ponzi scheme...The most probable path is a lingering death for the dollar over the next ten years, with a productive economy that continues to stagger forward under the rule of the financial oligarchs.

Case; deflation; Equities; implosion; Jesse's Café Américain; Speculative bubbles; Stagflation.

The Wall Street Examiner Tue 2009-10-06 09:27 EDT

From Black Scholes to Black Holes (part 4- Finance)

...the problems associated with mortgage finance pale in comparison to those associated with derivatives. Warren Buffett famously called these securities financial weapons of mass destruction, but I think he understated the problem. These securities are far worse- a Ponzi scheme even Carlo wouldn't have dreamed of. We can choose to fire a WMD, but these securities have taken on a life of their own and they will, in my view, drag everything financially tied to them into oblivion- into a black hole...In the end the remaining banks will merge into one and money, instead of light, would never be able to escape as the fallacy of netting benefits- the assumption that they are all similarly valued- is exposed.

Black Holes; Black Scholes; finance; Part 4; Wall Street Examiner.

Jesse's Café Américain Sun 2009-09-20 11:07 EDT

Stock Market Rally: Shenanigans Abounding

Jesse

...The US markets in general have every mark of a maturing Ponzi scheme...Bonds, stocks, metals, sugar, cocoa, and oil are all moving higher, while the dollar sinks. Is the dollar funding a new carry trade?...We remain guardedly 'optimistic' on the markets for next year ONLY because of the Fed's and Treasury's willingness to continue to debase the dollar to cover the massive unrealized losses in the banks' portfolios, even as they return to manipulating markets in business as usual. Inflation is good for financial assets, and we think another bubble is in the cards, at least for now given Obama's unwillingness to reform, unless some exogenous event or actor intervenes...

Jesse's Café Américain; Shenanigans Abounding; stock market rally.

zero hedge Tue 2009-09-01 19:43 EDT

Oil And Treasuries Paint A Divergent Inflation Picture, Yet Is It Even Relevant?

...bonds are reflecting a deflationary environment while commodities and stocks are betting on inflation...Yet...both stocks and bonds are potentially being manipulated to a point where they bear no reflection of the underlying assets, whose values they are purported to represent...is the debate about inflation versus deflation based on asset trends really relevant: a bizarro market dominated by animal spirits and intraday greed has ceased to indicate any long-term trends and our advice is to simply enjoy it for what it is - a ponzi casino...

Divergent Inflation Picture; Oil; relevant; Treasuries Paint; Zero Hedge.

zero hedge Tue 2009-09-01 15:39 EDT

Head Of China Sovereign Wealth Fund Openly Admits Asset Bubble Addressed By Creation Of More Bubbles

In a phenomenal demonstration of frankness and true economic assessment, the head of the China Investment Council, Lou Jiwei, who controls China's $298 billion sovereign wealth fund, admits the ponzi nature of today's markets: Both China and America are addressing bubbles by creating more bubbles and we're just taking advantage of that. So we can't lose. $20 trillion+ global equity market Ponzi scheme.

bubble; China Sovereign Wealth Fund Openly Admits Asset Bubble Addressed; creation; Head; Zero Hedge.

naked capitalism Wed 2009-08-26 16:18 EDT

Guest Post: A Plunge in Foreign Net Capital Inflows Preceded the Break in US Financial Markets

Jesse

Served by Jesse of Le Café Américain The peak of foreign capital inflows into the US was clearly seen in the second quarter of 2007, just before the crisis in the US that has rocked its banking system and driven it deeply into recession. Are the two events connected? Had the US become a Ponzi scheme that began to collapse when new investment began to wane, and the growth of returns could not be maintained? Watch the dollar and the Treasury and Agency Debt auctions for any further signs of capital flight, which is when those net inflows of foreign capital turn negative. And if for some reason the unlikely happens and it gains momentum, the dollar and bonds and stocks can all go lower in unison, and there...

break; financial market; Foreign Net Capital Inflows Preceded; Guest Post; naked capitalism; plunge.

Thu 2009-07-23 00:00 EDT

Lessons of the Global Financial Crisis: 1. The End of Ponzi Prosperity

by Satyajit Das; creative destruction

1; ending; global financial Crisis; Lessons; Ponzi Prosperity.

Tue 2009-06-16 00:00 EDT

naked capitalism: Guest Post: The Imminent Disinformation Schism

``naive, easily-manipulated, small-time mom and pop investors, who only care about looking at their daily yahoo finance screens and 401(k) statements...and the forward looking taxpayers, who see the upcoming budget deficit fiasco, the social security ponzi scheme, the Medicare/Medicaid debacle, the ridiculous underfunding in public and corporate pension funds, the rising city and state taxes, the shuttering factories, the rising unemployment, the plummeting American production base, the "seasonally" upward-adjusted economic data coupled with consistently downward revised prior economic releases, the increasing savings rate and the multi trillion discrepancy in consumer purchasing power.'' Time contributing author Douglas McIntyre declares end to 2008 banking crisis

Guest Post; Imminent Disinformation Schism; naked capitalism.

Tue 2009-06-16 00:00 EDT

Jesse's Café Américain: The Credit Bubble Was a Ponzi Scheme Enabled by the US Dollar

Jesse's Café Américain: The Credit Bubble Was a Ponzi Scheme Enabled by the US Dollar

credit bubble; Dollar; Jesse's Café Américain; Ponzi scheme enabler.