RollingStone.com: Matt Taibbi | Taibblog Sat 2010-08-07 21:06 EDT

Are We In a Recession or Not? [Summers versus Romer]

Matt Taibbi

...Obama's economic team...has seen two fairly major resignations...[Council of Economic Advisers chairwoman Christina Romer] and budget director Pete Orszag...neither of them got along with Larry Summers...Most of the DC chatter class seems to have interpreted the dual resignations as a sign of the ascendant power of the Summers-Geithner axis within the Obama White House...Romer was the Obama administration official who was loudest in her advocacy of a much bigger stimulus, with the idea that the administration's economic strategy should have been based around creating jobs and shaving unemployment as quickly as possible...she was really the only person close to Obama's economic inner circle who isn't a former Clintonite or Rubinite and isn't either a former Wall Street banker or, like Geithner, a public-sector tool of Wall Street...Not that Christina Romer was a savior...but she was at least not completely a Wall Street pod job -- she was pretty much the last inner-circle adviser who wasn't, and now she's gone...

com; Matt Taibbi; Recession; rollingstone; Summers versus Romer; Taibblog.

naked capitalism Thu 2010-08-05 20:07 EDT

Andy Xie on China's Empty Apartments

...Recent articles in media have illustrated how out of line prices are with incomes and rental yields...Chinese officialdom is worried about the social implications of overpriced housing...[Andy Xie reports] that the number of vacant apartments in China, the result of speculative warehousing (purchased as an investment but kept vacant) plus new construction languishing unsold is much greater than commonly realized...Justin Weleski: ``the Chinese housing market is incredibly nuanced. Many/most Western analyses, however, are extremely superficial and do not take into account the very unique circumstances and customs of Chinese society.'' ...a lot of these vacant apartments are owned by overseas Chinese planning their retirement, and not for speculation. If you add up the 50 million plus overseas Chinese, you have a pretty sizable pool of money and influence...China is not a renter friendly society...many people are forced to buy apartments, at riduculously price, just for the hope that their child can go to a good school...

Andy Xie; China's Empty Apartments; naked capitalism.

Tue 2010-08-03 15:02 EDT

Economics of Contempt: Anatomy of Lehman's Failure, and the Importance of Liquidity Requirements

Remember the Lehman Examiner's Report? The 4000+ page report by the court-appointed examiner was lauded for a couple of weeks after it was released, and then largely forgotten. The media and blogosphere quickly moved on to the next outrage-du-jour...Well, I did not forget about it, and thanks to the uptick in flights -- and thus reading time -- in the last few months, I can now credibly claim to have read....well, not every single word in the Examiner's Report (some appendices are just pages of CUSIPs), but all of the substantive sections...Anton Valukas and the lawyers at Jenner & Block who wrote the Examiner's Report did a masterful job. I was, and continue to be, in awe of the quality and comprehensiveness of the report...think I have a pretty good handle on what went wrong at Lehman, and why it failed...they were misrepresenting their liquidity pool. In a huge way...the brazenness of their misrepresentation was shocking...Including the clearing-bank collateral in its liquidity pool was not only inappropriate, but also aggressively deceptive...Lehman was also including in its liquidity pool non-central bank eligible CLOs and CDOs. And they had the audacity to mark these CLOs and CDOs at 100 (par) for purposes of the liquidity pool, even though JPMorgan's third-party pricing vendor marked them at 50--60...

Anatomy; contempt; economic; important; Lehman's failure; liquidity requirements.

naked capitalism Sun 2010-07-25 16:28 EDT

The Irish mess

Richard Smith

The Irish banks got in a big mess with duff RE loans. The government swapped discounted bad loans for government-issued bonds...the whole thing is the usual dump onto taxpayers...loans to no more than ten or a dozen of these developers account for EUR 20Bn of the EUR70Bn face value of the debts exchanged...The extra national debt incurred (so far) equates to EUR25,000 per taxpayer. And EUR6,500 of that goes to repair damage inflicted by just a dozen well-placed spivs. Then go for some fairly brutal austerity to sort out the new debt/GDP ratio (Irish unemployment was 13.5% the last time I looked). You will have some pretty discontented citizens, and the debt/GDP ratio will stay the same, or get worse, so you cut again...

Irish mess; naked capitalism.

naked capitalism Tue 2010-06-01 20:06 EDT

When Will Europe Have Its Wile E. Coyote Moment?

...The current program instead is ultimately about protecting Eurobanks from losses, and is destined to fail. John Mauldin, in his newsletters, has been featuring the work of Rob Parenteau, as featured first here on Naked Capitalism (and a source of much reader ire): that deleveraging the public sector and the private sector at the same time is impossible absent a big rise in exports. Pretty much every major economy is on a ``reduce government debt'' campaign. Many are also on a ``deleverage the private sector'' program too (which is warranted, given the amount of profligate lending that occurred). The problem, however, is that these states can't all increase exports, particularly to the degree sought...Rob Parenteau drew out the implications in an earlier post: ``...if households and businesses in the peripheral nations stubbornly defend their current net saving positions [continue to reduce debt levels], the attempt at fiscal retrenchment will be thwarted by a deflationary drop in nominal GDP. ''...This feels like 2007 all over again, with the authorities insistent that Things Will Be Fine, when a realistic assessment suggests the reverse.

Europe; naked capitalism; Wile E. Coyote Moment.

zero hedge Sun 2010-05-09 09:45 EDT

The Day The Market Almost Died (Courtesy Of High Frequency Trading)

A year ago, before anyone aside from a hundred or so people had ever heard the words High Frequency Trading, Flash orders, Predatory algorithms, Sigma X, Sonar, Market topology, Liquidity providers, Supplementary Liquidity Providers, and many variations on these, Zero Hedge embarked upon a path to warn and hopefully prevent a full-blown market meltdown. On April 10, 2009, in a piece titled "The Incredibly Shrinking Market Liquidity, Or The Black Swan Of Black Swans" we cautioned "what happens in a world where the very core of the capital markets system is gradually deleveraging to a point where maintaining a liquid and orderly market becomes impossible: large swings on low volume, massive bid-offer spreads, huge trading costs, inability to clear and numerous failed trades. When the quant deleveraging finally catches up with the market, the consequences will likely be unprecedented, with dramatic dislocations leading the market both higher and lower on record volatility." Today, after over a year of seemingly ceaseless heckling and jeering by numerous self-proclaimed experts and industry lobbyists, we are vindicated...absent the last minute intervention of still unknown powers, the market, for all intents and purposes, broke. Liquidity disappeared. What happened today was no fat finger, it was no panic selling by one major account: it was simply the impact of everyone in the HFT community going from port to starboard on the boat, at precisely the same time...It is time for the SEC to do its job and not only ban flash trading as it said it would almost a year ago, but get rid of all the predatory aspects of high frequency trading, which are pretty much all of them...HFT killed over 12 months of hard fought propaganda by the likes of CNBC which has valiantly tried to restore faith in our broken capital markets. They have now failed in that task too. After today investors will have little if any faith left in the US stocks, assuming they had any to begin with. We need to purge the equity market structure of all liquidity-taking parasitic players. We must start today with High Frequency Trading...

courtesy; day; dies; high frequency trade; Market; Zero Hedge.

naked capitalism Mon 2010-04-19 18:46 EDT

Soros, Galbraith and Stiglitz on resisting inevitability in Greece

However, for now, it is Greece which is on everyone's mind...Kevin de Bruxelles says: ...I have to give credit to Angela Merkel. She is holding a pretty strong hand and it is now clear we are down to two choices for the endgame. The bailout solution will be international, in other words not limited to the Eurozone, and the amounts donated will be proportional to the risk each country holds. Or Greece simply defaults, probably first on their Anglo-Saxon debt (in return for low interest loans from Germany and France!), and each country then just bails out their respective banking system.

Galbraith; Greece; naked capitalism; resisting inevitability; Soros; Stiglitz.

naked capitalism Mon 2010-04-19 16:17 EDT

Strategic defaults increase consumer spending

...the evidence is pretty substantial that strategic defaults are indeed goosing retail sales...

naked capitalism; Strategic defaults increase consumer spending.

Culture of Life News Tue 2010-03-30 16:01 EDT

Empires Must Regulate Trade And Finances

Elaine Supkis

I keep harping on the trade deficit issue since all of the other messes revolve around this misbalance...The `Me, Myself, and I' ethos is self-centered, childish and foolish. It comes out of living inside a major empire. The individual puffs up him or herself and decides, thanks to being fairly free inside of this empire, that the empire is stupid and doesn't need to be coaxed, nurtured or controlled. Instead, various individuals work day and night to evade taxes that support the imperial superstructure. They bribe politicians to allow looting of the purse via inflated war costs, corruption in buying services, tweaking laws so they channel all collective wealth into a few individual pockets, etc...The people are a collective. If they are individuals, they will be eaten by internationalist wolves or other empires that are not individuals. This is a harsh historical lesson: individuals eventually lose to organized groups...Mostly, throughout history, the freest people have been the CITIZENS of an empire (NOT the victims being oppressed by the empire). Free nations exist only in the shadows of an empire...This is why growing and preserving empires is more important than pretending to be an individual who has no ties to anything. Seriously, when major empires fall, the ability to roam the planet at will vanishes pretty fast...

Culture; Empire; finance; Life News; regulate trade.

naked capitalism Sun 2010-02-28 13:08 EST

Martin Wolf is Very Gloomy, and With Good Reason

Martin Wolf, the Financial Times' highly respected chief economics editor, weighs in with a pretty pessimistic piece tonight. This makes for a companion to Peter Boone and Simon Johnson's Doomsday cycle post from yesterday...With the private sector debt overhang as great as it is, I doubt there is a way out of our mess that does not involve a period of debt restructuring and writeoffs. That process, no matter how adeptly handled, results in dislocation and has a chilling effect on bystanders...Swedish Lex interestingly sees another possible brake that may become operative prior to another bubble/bust cycle. He believes that the EU has much less tolerance for underwriting zombie banks than the US. The EuroBanks have written off less in the way of losses than their US peers, are also exposed to any EU sovereign debt defaults, and yet the biggest are still crucial parts of the international capital markets infrastructure (and therefore still tightly coupled to the very biggest US/UK firms). While any EU sovereign debt defaults could morph into a full blown crisis, the EU responses to the joint sovereign/bank debt overhang could lead to more radical changes in EU banking rules and practices that could blow back to the very biggest US banks in unexpected ways.

gloomy; good reason; Martin Wolf; naked capitalism.

Sun 2010-01-31 23:06 EST

The Formula for This Market Rally In Simple Terms

The first, most obvious trend is the Manic Mondays trend...for the 43 weeks ended Friday January 8, 2010, stocks have rallied on 30 out of the 43 Mondays...these Monday ramp jobs have contributed the bulk of the market rally's gains since March 2009...The second trend that has dominated this market since the March 2009 bottom is the Bernanke Options Expiration juicing. In simple terms Ben Bernanke has shown a REAL preference for pumping money into the financial system on the exact week when options are expiring...The final trend that has dominated this market is cousin to the Manic Monday Ramp Job. It is the Night Session Ramp Job...from September 13, 2009 until year-end, ALL of the stock market's gains occurred in the over-night futures session from 4:00 ET to 9:30 AM ET...So there you have it, the three most dominant trends of this market rally. None of them are pretty. None of them involve fundamentals. And ALL of them are directly related to the Fed's liquidity pump.

Formula; markets Rally; simple terms.

Fri 2009-11-20 10:30 EST

Curious Meeting at Treasury Department >> naked capitalism

Yves Smith

The Treasury invited a small group of bloggers for a ``discussion'' with senior officials on Monday...we bloggers and the government officials kept talking past each other, in that one of us would ask a question, the reply would leave the questioner or someone in the audience unsatisfied, there might be a follow up question (either same person or someone interested), get another responsive-sounding but not really answer, and then another person would get the floor...the people we met are very cognitively captured, assuming one can take their remarks at face value. Although they kept stressing all the things that had changed or they were planning to change, the polite pushback from pretty all the attendees was that what Treasury thought of as major progress was insufficient...It was also striking to see that the Treasury officials did not articulate vision for a banking system for the 21st century that was materially different that the one we have now...

Curious Meeting; naked capitalism; Treasury Department.

naked capitalism Fri 2009-10-23 09:20 EDT

Paul Volcker, Mervyn King, Glass Steagall, and the Real TBTF Problem

Paul Volcker wants to roll the clock back and restore Glass Steagall, the 1933 rule that separated commercial banking from investment banking, but Team Obama is politely ignoring him. Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank of England, is giving a more strident version of the same message...I think Volcker is wrong, but not for reasons one might expect...The problem is that we have had a thirty year growth in securitization. A lot of activities that were once done strictly on bank balance sheets are merely originated by banks and are sold into capital markets...you could in theory go back to having much more on balance sheet intermediation (finance speak for ``dial the clock back 35 years and have banks keep pretty much all their loans''). Conceptually, that is a tidy solution, but it has a massive flaw: it would take a simply enormous amount of equity to provide enough equity to all those banks with their vastly bigger balance sheets. We're having enough trouble recapitalizing the banking system we have...I have yet to see anything even remotely approaching a realistic discussion of how to deal with too big too fail firms, and we have been at this for months. My knowledge of the industry is not fully current, but even so, the difficulties are far greater than I have seen acknowledged anywhere. That pretty much guarantees none of the proposals are serious, and nothing will be done on this front. That further implies the system will have to break down catastrophically before anything effective can be done. I really hope I am wrong on this one.

Glass Steagall; Mervyn King; naked capitalism; Paul Volcker; Real TBTF Problem.

Zero Hedge Wed 2009-08-26 15:52 EDT

The Goldman VaR Exemption Question Escalates

Tyler Durden

It seems only yesterday that Zero Hedge had some questions in regard to Goldman's VaR Fed exemption. No response was received from 85 Broad. Today it appears several Congressmen, lead by Alan Grayson, are willing to drive a sharp stick pretty deep into the hornets' nest, by sending a letter directly to Wall Street Don Ben Bernanke, demanding an explanation exactly to the question of Goldman's VaR Exemption. Posted 2009-07-27.

Goldman VaR Exemption Question Escalates; Zero Hedge.

ClubOrlov Wed 2009-08-26 13:53 EDT

The Slope of Dysfunction

kollapsnik

(Update: click here for a special version for the Nihonjin care of Masayuki.) Perhaps you have heard of the Peak Oil theory? Most people have by now, even the people whose job used to involve denying the possibility that global crude oil production would peak any time soon. Now that everybody seems a bit more comfortable with the idea, perhaps it is time to reexamine it. Is the scenario Peak Oil theoreticians paint indeed realistic, or is it firmly grounded in wishful thinking? Here is a typical, slightly outdated Peak Oil chart. I chose it because it looks pretty and conveys the typical Peak Oil message, which is that global crude oil (and natural gas condensate) production will rise to a lofty peak sometime soon, and then drift down...

ClubOrlov; dysfunctional; Slope.

Fri 2008-12-12 00:00 EST

AlterNet: Chomsky: Is There Truth in Obama's Advertising?

AlterNet: Noam Chomsky: Is There Truth in Obama's Advertising? ``what's happened to the country...is that there was extensive and very constructive activism in the 1960s...And the activism did civilize the country''; Tom Ferguson's investment theory of politics; Brand Obama; ``The goal of advertising is to create uninformed consumers who will make irrational choices...And when they turn to selling a candidate they do the same thing...So you undermine democracy pretty much the same way you undermine markets.''

AlterNet; Chomsky; Obama's Advertising; truth.

Tue 2008-06-17 00:00 EDT

naked capitalism: So How Did Lehman Delever? A Not-Very-Pretty Possibility

pinning out two large businesses into independent entities; maintain a 45% economic interest while getting an off balance sheet treatment

Lehman Delever; naked capitalism; Pretty Possibility.

Sun 2007-10-28 00:00 EDT

About those burned-down houses in California - The Smirking Chimp

About those burned-down houses in California, by Dave Lindorff - The Smirking Chimp; "if your house had a tile roof, and stucco walls, it pretty much was immune to fires"

burned; California; Housing; Smirking Chimp.

Fri 2007-09-28 00:00 EDT

Accrued Interest: You fixed us all pretty good

how CDO market aggravated housing bubble; proposed CDO reforms

Accrued Interest; Fix; pretty Good.