Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Mon 2009-10-12 09:22 EDT

One Hand Clapping Theory Analyzed

Michael Shedlock

Numerous people have asked me to comment on Chris Martenson's article The Sound of One Hand Clapping - What Deflationists May Be Missing. Chris Writes: ...``Trillions in probable and provable losses quietly exist, out of sight, on the balance sheets of the Federal Reserve and other financial institutions. If they ever come out of hiding and onto the books, I think the deflationists will be proven correct beyond all doubt. But let me ask this: What prevents the authorities from simply storing them out of sight forever?...I am now wondering if they cannot keep this up indefinitely.'' ...In a credit based economy, the odds of a sustainable rebound without bank credit expanding, and consumers participating is not very good. Even if one mistakenly assumes that the recent rally is a result of pretending, should we count on sustained success now more so than a measurement of stock prices in April of 1930, or any of Japans' four 50% rallies? I think not. Pretending cannot accomplish much other than prolonging the agony for decades. This is the message of Japan. Moreover, the US is arguably is worse shape than Japan because our problems are unsustainable consumer debt, high unemployment, and massive retail sector overcapacity. Those are structural problems that no amount of pretending in the world can possibly cure. In due time, the market will focus on those problems.

hand clapping theory analyzed; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis.

Tue 2009-10-06 21:14 EDT

TraderFeed: Featured Book Look: Dear Mr. Buffett by Janet Tavakoli

Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked," Warren Buffett once observed. Janet Tavakoli's book Dear Mr. Buffett is less about the Oracle From Omaha than the various naked swimmers in the recent financial markets. The essence of her argument is that the recent financial turmoil is not the result of unpredictable black swan events; rather, it is the consequence of out and out malfeasance on the part of those who take risk and those who are charged with regulating it.

Featured Book Look; Janet Tavakoli; Mr. Buffett; TraderFeed.

Tue 2009-10-06 21:12 EDT

The demise of the dollar

Robert Fisk

In the most profound financial change in recent Middle East history, Gulf Arabs are planning -- along with China, Russia, Japan and France -- to end dollar dealings for oil, moving instead to a basket of currencies including the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, the euro, gold and a new, unified currency planned for nations in the Gulf Co-operation Council, including Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Qatar...Sun Bigan, China's former special envoy to the Middle East, has warned there is a risk of deepening divisions between China and the US over influence and oil in the Middle East. "Bilateral quarrels and clashes are unavoidable," he told the Asia and Africa Review. "We cannot lower vigilance against hostility in the Middle East over energy interests and security."...

demise; Dollar.

The Economic Populist - Speak Your Mind 2 Cents at a Time Mon 2009-09-21 14:33 EDT

Fed accounts for 50% of treasury purchases

There once was a time when the Federal Reserve abhorred the idea of monetizing debt. That day is long over. In the second quarter, the most recent for which data is available, the Fed bought $164 billion out of the $339 billion in net new Treasurys sold. In the mortgage-backed debt markets, the Fed has been buying upward of 80% of the bonds issued by agencies such as Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. ZeroHedge helps to put this number into perspective: the Fed was a greater factor in UST demand than all three traditional players combined: Foreigners, Households and Primary Dealers, which amounted to a $158 billion in net Q2 purchases.

50; economic populist; Fed Accountable; Mind 2 Cents; speaking; Time; Treasury purchases.

THE PRAGMATIC CAPITALIST Sun 2009-09-20 12:29 EDT

CHINA WILL BE A BIGGER BUBBLE THAN JAPAN >> Most Recent Stories >> THE PRAGMATIC CAPITALIST

SocGen analysts Dylan Grice says the Chinese economy has many similarities to the Japanese economy before it imploded in the 90's...the real cause of Japan's deflation is probably more demographic than debt-related...Japan has been the first industrial economy to begin demographic contraction. Indeed, thanks to Deng Xiaoping's 1979 one child policy, China will soon face the same problem...Japan's experience also hints at what may be the future catalyst unleashing this frenzy: capital account liberalisation. Financial history is filled with financial liberalisations gone wrong and Japan's bubble can be traced directly to the removal of controls on international capital flows and banking in the early 1980s. Seeking a larger international role for the renminbi, China is now, albeit tentatively, embarking on a similar path. Full liberalisation, when it occurs, could be the starting gun for the biggest bubble the world has ever seen.

bigger bubble; China; Japan; pragmatic capitalists; recent story.

naked capitalism Sun 2009-09-20 09:48 EDT

Guest Post: ``Assessing the Recent Performance of the Fed''

Richard Alford, former economist at the New York Fed

...the current Fed: 1) actively promoted the asset bubbles which precipitated the most costly business downturn since the Great depression; 2) passively sat by ignoring its regulatory and supervisory responsibilities allowing the growth of imbalances that led to the worst business downturn since the Great depression...the economic and financial imbalances that built up between 2000 and 2007 will generate the opportunity costs in terms of lost output and idle and misallocated resources that will exceed the costs inherent in the economic and financial imbalances reflected in the most expensive anti-inflation fight ever fought by the Fed (1980-1983). The US financial system remains on life support. Furthermore, the Fed has played a part in allocating credit and in engineering redistributions of wealth on a scale that is likely to on the same scale as the redistribution of wealth from the household sector to government during the inflation ridden 1970s. The independence of the Fed has been compromised. Many in the Congress want to audit the Fed and limit its ability to make loans in future emergencies. The Fed is seen by many as an agency of the Treasury.

assessment; Fed; Guest Post; naked capitalism; recent perform.

Thu 2009-09-17 10:08 EDT

The Next Financial Crisis

Peter Boone, Simon Johnson

Our banks have gotten into the habit of needing to be rescued through repeated bailouts. During this crisis, Bernanke--while saving the financial system in the short term--has done nothing to break this long-term pattern; worse, he exacerbated it. As a result, unless real reform happens soon, we face the prospect of another bubble-bust-bailout cycle that will be even more dangerous than the one we've just been through. ...We have seen this spectacle--the Fed saving us from one crisis only to instigate another--many times before. And, over the past few decades, the problem has become significantly more dire. The fault, to be sure, doesn't lie entirely with the Fed. Bernanke is a prisoner of a financial system with serious built-in flaws. The decisions he made during the recent crisis weren't necessarily the wrong decisions; indeed, they were, in many respects, the decisions he had to make. But these decisions, however necessary in the moment, are almost guaranteed to hurt our economy in the long run--which, in turn, means that more necessary but harmful measures will be needed in the future. It is a debilitating, vicious cycle. And at the center of this cycle is the Fed.

Financial Crisis.

Wed 2009-09-16 19:19 EDT

Why Default on U.S. Treasuries is Likely | Library of Economics and Liberty

Jeffrey Rogers Hummel

Almost everyone is aware that federal government spending in the United States is scheduled to skyrocket, primarily because of Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. Recent "stimulus" packages have accelerated the process. Only the naively optimistic actually believe that politicians will fully resolve this looming fiscal crisis with some judicious combination of tax hikes and program cuts. Many predict that, instead, the government will inflate its way out of this future bind, using Federal Reserve monetary expansion to fill the shortfall between outlays and receipts. But I believe, in contrast, that it is far more likely that the United States will be driven to an outright default on Treasury securities, openly reneging on the interest due on its formal debt and probably repudiating part of the principal. Treasury default considered likely.

default; economic; liberties; libraries; likely; U. S. treasuries.

Jesse's Café Américain Sun 2009-09-13 12:28 EDT

H&S Top and "Iron Cross" on Weekly Dollar Chart Targets 66

Jesse

The weekly chart on the US Dollar Index has rather awful technicals, as it has dropped to a recent low, and set the 'iron cross' in the moving averages that is generally the hallmark of a sustained decline...The ultimate objective of this formation remains 66. It is difficult to square this with a technical outlook that includes a major decline in the US equity indices, since the pairs have been running inversely, that is, dollar down, and stocks up.

H; Iron Cross; Jesse's Café Américain; s Top; Weekly Dollar Chart Targets 66.

Minyanville Sat 2009-09-05 11:47 EDT

Why Hanging On to UNG Is Risky Business

People have been up in arms for months now about the troubles at the United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG) the ETF designed to track the price of natural gas. And as far as I can tell rightly so. ETFs were meant to be a nearly frictionless relatively simple alternative to the clunky closed-end funds (CEFs) and managed products that our parents and grandparents had to contend with. But UNG recently traded at a 19% premium to its net asset value (NAV) -- behavior far more fitting a CEF...But since hand-wringing over UNG seems to be the consensus approach, here's a contrarian thought: UNG has, to date, tracked natural gas futures (NG) fairly well.

hang; Minyanville; Risky Business; UNG.

Jesse's Café Américain Fri 2009-09-04 19:12 EDT

Hong Kong Bringing Its Gold Home From London

Jesse

"In the house of the wise are stores of precious treasure and oil, but a foolish man devours all he has." Proverbs 21:20 The People's Republic of China has been urging its citizens to convert some part of their savings into gold and silver, having recently liberalized the procedures by which individuals can obtain it. Hong Kong has built a new world class bullion vault, and is repatriating its gold reserves from the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), where some speculate it had been committed for sale many times over. Hong Kong wishes to become its own regional Asia market maker for bullion metals. The rest of the world will rein in the Wall Street financial establishment, because the bankers have demonstrated an inability to manage their financial affairs...

Gold Home; Hong Kong Bringing; Jesse's Café Américain; LONDON.

Jesse's Café Américain Fri 2009-09-04 19:00 EDT

Five Reasons for the Recent Surge in Gold

Jesse

1. Seasonality 2. Continuing Risks in the Financial System 3. Moral Hazard: Tipping Point In Confidence From Over a Decade of Monetary and Regulatory Policy Errors 4. Blowback from Banking Frauds on the Rest of World 5. A Failure in Political Leadership to Deliver Essential Reforms

gold; Jesse's Café Américain; reasons; recent surge.

zero hedge Thu 2009-09-03 09:59 EDT

Deep Thoughts From Leucadia

With Leucadia coming boldly from behind the shadows, where Ian Cumming and Joe Steinberg have always enjoyed operating, and joining Buffett in a deal over Capmark's loan-servicing and mortgage business, it makes sense to introduce readers with some of the very original thinking of the Leucadia founders (and very close friends of the mellifluously named Dick Handler). We present their most recent annual investor letter, which frequently is cited as among the best hedge fund (even though they don't like to be seen as one) strategy reading material. downloaded pdf.

Deep Thought; Leucadia; Zero Hedge.

zero hedge Thu 2009-09-03 09:59 EDT

Deep Thoughts From Leucadia

With Leucadia coming boldly from behind the shadows, where Ian Cumming and Joe Steinberg have always enjoyed operating, and joining Buffett in a deal over Capmark's loan-servicing and mortgage business, it makes sense to introduce readers with some of the very original thinking of the Leucadia founders (and very close friends of the mellifluously named Dick Handler). We present their most recent annual investor letter, which frequently is cited as among the best hedge fund (even though they don't like to be seen as one) strategy reading material. downloaded pdf.

Deep Thought; Leucadia; Zero Hedge.

zero hedge Fri 2009-08-28 17:15 EDT

The Oil-Gas Six Sigma Dislocation

The CFTC has earned its stripes by allowing speculators to take the oil to natty relationship to unprecedented arb levels. Represented in energy content equivalents, where oil traditionally has been in the 6x-12x range for gas, the most recent reading is 26.36! This is, as the chart indicates, your six sigma event for the day. A long NG1 - short CL1 arb may take some abuse but absent Amaranth coming out of somewhere (and even they were eventually prosecuted), this relationship should collapse to some semblance of normalcy. Although in this bizarro market it is guaranteed to do the opposite of what any fundamental or technical relationships dictate.

Oil gas; Sigma Dislocation; Zero Hedge.

ClubOrlov Wed 2009-08-26 15:35 EDT

Bullets from the Drug War

kollapsnik

The US has lost the "War on Drugs" The losing side is usually not the one to decide when a fight is over or how it ends Unlike other recent defeats, this lost war is a defeat followed by an invasion Mexico is the natural staging area for the invasion (inconvenient though it is for the Mexicans)New franchises are being set up to service the North American drug market (which is the biggest in the world) The CIA has to eat, and all they know how to do competently is run guns and drugs and control thugs; they get a seat at the table The narcs have to eat too, and all they are trained to do is deal (with) drugs; they get a seat at the table tooAs...

bullets; ClubOrlov; Drug War.