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Recession Topic in The Credit Debacle Catalog

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Fri 2009-10-23 09:42 EDT

America's soul is lost, collapse inevitable - MarketWatch

Jack Bogle published "The Battle for the Soul of Capitalism" four years ago. The battle's over. The sequel should be titled: "Capitalism Died a Lost Soul." Worse, we've lost "America's Soul." And, worldwide, the consequences will be catastrophic. That's why a man like Hong Kong contrarian economist Marc Faber warns in his Doom, Boom & Gloom Report: "The future will be a total disaster, with a collapse of our capitalistic system as we know it today." No, not just another meltdown, another bear-market recession like the one recently triggered by Wall Street's too-greedy-to-fail banks. Faber is warning that the entire system of capitalism will collapse. Get it? The engine driving the great "American Economic Empire" for 233 years will collapse, a total disaster, a destiny we created.

America s Soul; Collapse Inevitable; lost; MarketWatch.

zero hedge Mon 2009-10-12 10:10 EDT

Albert Edwards Warns Of Western Authorities' Positioning For Dismal Failure, As US Becomes Japan Redux

Albert Edwards continues doling out common sense; everyone, and the market in particular, continues ignoring it...The post-bubble whiplash in the economic and profits cycle is exactly a replay of Japan?'s experience. They too had seen an extended period of strong and steady growth going into the peak of the bubble. It took many years, repeated painful lapses back into recession, and sharp declines in equity markets before investors fully de-rated valuations low enough to reflect a new new paradigm...To gauge whether the world economy can surprise and escape this balance sheet recession, keep a very close eye on the bank lending numbers.

Albert Edwards Warns; Becomes Japan Redux; dismal failure; positive; Western authorities; Zero Hedge.

zero hedge Sat 2009-10-10 11:57 EDT

The Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet: An Update

...the Federal Reserve has faced two historically unusual constraints on policy. First, the financial crisis, by increasing credit risk spreads and inhibiting normal flows of financing and credit extension, has likely reduced the degree of monetary accommodation associated with any given level of the federal funds rate target, perhaps significantly. Second, since December, the targeted funds rate has been effectively at its zero lower bound (more precisely, in a range between 0 and 25 basis points), eliminating the possibility of further stimulating the economy through cuts in the target rate. To provide additional support to the economy despite these limits on traditional monetary policy, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the Board of Governors have taken a number of actions and initiated a series of new programs that have increased the size and changed the composition of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. I thought it would be useful this evening to review for you the most important elements of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, as well as some aspects of their evolution over time. As you'll see, doing so provides a convenient means of explaining the steps the Federal Reserve has taken, beyond conventional interest rate reductions, to mitigate the financial crisis and the recession, as well as how those actions will be reversed as the economy recovers...

Federal Reserve's balance sheet; Update; Zero Hedge.

Tue 2009-09-29 11:33 EDT

How Bad Will It Get?

In the two years since the crisis began, neither the Fed nor policymakers at the Treasury have taken steps to remove toxic assets from banks balance sheets. The main arteries for credit still remain clogged despite the fact that the Bernanke has added nearly $900 billion in excess reserves to the banking system. Consumers continue to reduce their borrowing despite historically low interest rates and the banks are still hoarding capital to pay off losses from non performing loans and bad assets. Changes in the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) rules for mark-to-market accounting of assets have made it easier for underwater banks to hide their red ink, but, eventually, the losses have to be reported. The wave of banks failures is just now beginning to accelerate. It should persist into 2011. The system is gravely under-capitalized and at risk...The economy cannot recover without a strong consumer. But consumers and households have suffered massive losses and are deeply in debt. Credit lines have been reduced and, for many, the only source of revenue is the weekly paycheck...The current recession has exposed the fault-lines dividing the classes in the US. Neither party represents working people. Both the Democrats and the Republicans are supportive of "social engineering for the rich"; regressive taxation and economic policies which shift a greater portion of the wealth to the richest Americans. The question of inequality, which has grown to levels not seen since the Gilded Age, will dominate the national conversation as the recession deepens and more people slip from the ranks of the middle class...After Obama's stimulus runs out, consumer spending will again sputter and the economy will slide back into recession.

bad.

Calculated Risk Tue 2009-09-22 09:30 EDT

Inspector General: FDIC saw risks at IndyMac in 2002

From the Inspector General Report: Between 2001 and 2003, [Division of Insurance and Research] DIR risk assessments and quarterly banking profiles identified concerns about a number of issues, including:*** consumers' ever-increasing debt load, the expansion of adjustable rate mortgages, and a potential housing bubble; *** subprime and high loan-to-value (HLTV) lending as a risk in the event that the United States economy suffered a significant recession; and *** pricing and modeling charge-off risk with respect to the originate-to-sell model of the mortgage business.

2002; Calculated Risk; FDIC saw risks; IndyMac; Inspector generally.

Tue 2009-09-22 08:32 EDT

From Bear to Bull: James Grant on Recession and Recovery - WSJ.com

James Grant argues the latest gloomy forecasts ignore an important lesson of history: The deeper the slump, the zippier the recovery.

Bear; Bulls; com; James Grant; Recession; recovery; WSJ.

Sun 2009-09-20 14:12 EDT

America's Exhausted Paradigm: Macroeconomic Causes of the Financial Crisis and Great Recession | The New America Foundation

This report traces the roots of the current financial crisis to a faulty U.S. macroeconomic paradigm. One flaw in this paradigm was the neo-liberal growth model adopted after 1980 that relied on debt and asset price inflation to drive demand. A second flaw was the model of U.S. engagement with the global economy that created a triple economic hemorrhage of spending on imports, manufacturing job losses, and off-shoring of investment. Deregulation and financial excess are important parts of the story, but they are not the ultimate cause of the crisis. Instead, they facilitated the housing bubble and are actually part of the neo-liberal model, their function being to fuel demand growth based on debt and asset price inflation. The old post-World War II growth model based on rising middle-class incomes has been dismantled, while the new neo-liberal growth model has imploded. The United States needs a new economic paradigm and a new growth model, but as yet this challenge has received little attention from policymakers or economists.

America's Exhausted Paradigm; Financial Crisis; Great Recession; Macroeconomic Causes; New America Foundation.

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Sun 2009-09-20 11:23 EDT

Yellen Calls For "U" Shaped Recession and Another Jobless Recovery

...excerpts from Janet Yellen's Outlook for Recovery in the U.S. Economy: ...the complex topic of inflation. In my career, I have never witnessed a situation like the one that exists now, when views about inflation risks have coalesced into two diametrically opposed camps. On the one hand, one group worries about the long-term inflationary implications of a seemingly endless procession of massive federal budget deficits. At the same time, others fear that economic slack and downward wage pressure are pushing inflation below rates that are considered consistent with price stability and even raising the specter of outright deflation... My personal belief is that the more significant threat to price stability over the next several years stems from the disinflationary forces unleashed by the enormous slack in the economy.

Jobless Recovery; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis; Shaped Recession; U; Yellen called.

Thu 2009-09-17 10:02 EDT

``No One Saw This Coming'': Understanding Financial Crisis Through Accounting Models - Munich RePEc Personal Archive

This paper presents evidence that accounting (or flow-of-fund) macroeconomic models helped anticipate the credit crisis and economic recession. Equilibrium models ubiquitous in mainstream policy and research did not. This study identifies core differences, traces their intellectual pedigrees, and includes case studies of both types of models. It so provides constructive recommendations on revising methods of financial stability assessment. Overall, the paper is a plea for research into the link between accounting concepts and practices and macro economic outcomes.

accounts model; comes; Munich RePEc Personal Archive; saw; Understanding Financial Crisis.

Jesse's Café Américain Fri 2009-09-04 18:58 EDT

Stiglitz on the Financial Crisis

Joe Stiglitz describes the current financial crisis and prospective recovery quite well, and the conclusions he draws are remarkably similar to our own which is gratifying. It's good to hear these things from a distinguished Nobel laureate, and not just from your humble Propriétaire, while puttering over his daily bread. Bloomberg Stiglitz Says U.S. Economic Recovery May Not Be `Sustainable' By Michael McKee Sept. 4 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy faces a ``significant chance'' of contracting again after emerging from its worst recession since the 1930s, Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz said. ``It's not clear that the U.S. is recovering in a sustainable way,'' Stiglitz, a Columbia University professor, told reporters yesterday in New York.

Financial Crisis; Jesse's Café Américain; Stiglitz.

The Big Picture Thu 2009-09-03 15:36 EDT

BLS Birth Death Conundrum ?

B/D defenders were horrifically wrong across the board about nearly everything -- about the housing crisis, the credit collapse, the recession, the market crash, and of course, the massive loss of jobs since hiring peaked late 2007-08...

Big Picture; BLS Birth Death Conundrum.

naked capitalism Wed 2009-08-26 16:18 EDT

Guest Post: A Plunge in Foreign Net Capital Inflows Preceded the Break in US Financial Markets

Served by Jesse of Le Café Américain The peak of foreign capital inflows into the US was clearly seen in the second quarter of 2007, just before the crisis in the US that has rocked its banking system and driven it deeply into recession. Are the two events connected? Had the US become a Ponzi scheme that began to collapse when new investment began to wane, and the growth of returns could not be maintained? Watch the dollar and the Treasury and Agency Debt auctions for any further signs of capital flight, which is when those net inflows of foreign capital turn negative. And if for some reason the unlikely happens and it gains momentum, the dollar and bonds and stocks can all go lower in unison, and there...

break; financial market; Foreign Net Capital Inflows Preceded; Guest Post; naked capitalism; plunge.

Thu 2009-07-23 00:00 EDT

The big drop: Trade and the Great Recession | vox - Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists

unprecedented global trade collapse

big drop; commentary; Great Recession; leading economists; research-based policy analysis; trading; Vox.

Tue 2009-06-16 00:00 EDT

Calculated Risk: Using Corporate Bonds as an Economic Predictor

``model predicts industrial production will fall another 17% by the end of the year, and the economy will lose another 7.8 million jobs on top of the 5.1 million it has shed since the recession began''

Calculated Risk; Economic Predictor; Using Corporate Bonds.

Tue 2009-04-21 00:00 EDT

Hussman Funds: Market Valuations During U.S. Recessions

``while current valuations have improved, they don't yet represent the worst levels that have occurred when the economy has been in recession.''

Hussman Funds; Market valuation; U.S. recession.

Wed 2009-04-01 00:00 EDT

Calculated Risk: Business Cycle: Temporal Order

residential investment and personal consumption expenditure lead economy out of recession

business cycle; Calculated Risk; Temporal Order.

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