dimelab dimelab: shrinking the gap between talk and action.

Roubini Topic in The Credit Debacle Catalog

Nouriel Roubini (19); Nouriel Roubini pointed (1); Nouriel Roubini Really (1); Nouriel Roubini worked (1); Nouriel Roubini writes (2); Roubini blast (1); Roubini Global Economics (1); Roubini predicted (1); Roubini s (3); Roubini warning (1); Roubini's thesis (2).

naked capitalism Mon 2010-03-29 13:48 EDT

Thinking the Unthinkable: What if China Devalues the Renminbi?

Conventional wisdom holds that the Chinese are due (as in overdue) for a revaluation of their currency, the renminbi...We question whether a revaluation is the right answer for them, and more important, whether the Chinese themselves see a revaluation as a plus. The government has engineered an enormous increase in money and credit in the past year. In fact, it seems to be as great as 5 years' growth in credit in the previous Chinese bubble. The increase in money and credit is so great and so abrupt that you tend to get a high inflation quite quickly even if there are under utilised resources. Add to this the fact that China simultaneously is providing massive fiscal stimulus...Inflation can take off and thereby begin to ERODE the competitiveness of Chinese exports. Nouriel Roubini pointed out this issue in 2007: if China didn't revalue, inflation would do the trick regardless. A continued high rate of inflation relative to its trade partners would push up the price of goods in home currency terms, which in turn translates into higher export prices. This might be the real reason why China is so reticent to revalue its currency. The Americans might go crazy if the Chinese devalued, but if the inflation is high enough, they might have to do it, as it will severely erode their terms of trade and cause their tradeables sector to collapse.

China Devalue; naked capitalism; renminbi; Think; unthinkable.

zero hedge Tue 2010-01-05 19:26 EST

Roubini Blasts "The Barbarous Relic," Recommends Spam Over Gold

In a headline piece on roubini.com, Nouriel Roubini writes an extended article slamming both gold bugs, and the so-called gold bubble, which he believes is far too volatile, and which, contrary to ever increasing claims to the opposite, will likely not get to the mythical price of $2000/ounce, and instead will head lower. The argument presented, as is widely the case, boils down to the trifecta of i)gold having no industrial utility, ii) no intrinsic value (no associated cash flow streams) and iii) costing an arm and a leg to store. While Roubini's thesis is attractive on the surface (if somewhat Keynesian and thus often reiterated by mainstream Economists), we present some counter arguments to Roubini's thesis.

barbaric relic; gold; Recommends Spam; Roubini blast; Zero Hedge.

naked capitalism Thu 2009-11-19 10:43 EST

Roubini Predicts ``Mother of All Carry Trade Unwinds''

Nouriel Roubini has officially left the ``hedging your bets on the economy'' camp. He has declared the markets to be frothy because super low dollar borrowing rates have turned the greenback into the funding currency for the carry trade. Far more important than the peppy rally in the stock market is the resumption of early 2007 style risk taking in the credit markets.

carry trade unwind; mother; naked capitalism; Roubini predicted.

naked capitalism Tue 2009-10-27 12:18 EDT

Guest Post: Capitalism, Socialism or Fascism?

What is the current American economy: capitalism, socialism or fascism? ...Nouriel Roubini writes ``We're essentially continuing a system where profits are privatized and...losses socialized.'' Nassim Nicholas Taleb says ``the government is socializing all these losses by transforming them into liabilities for your children and grandchildren and great-grandchildren.'' Nobel prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz calls it ``socialism for the rich'' ...leading journalist Robert Scheer writes: ``What is proposed is not the nationalization of private corporations but rather a corporate takeover of government. The marriage of highly concentrated corporate power with an authoritarian state that services the politico-economic elite at the expense of the people is more accurately referred to as ``financial fascism'''' ...Italian historian Gaetano Salvemini argued in 1936 that fascism makes taxpayers responsible to private enterprise, because ``the State pays for the blunders of private enterprise... Profit is private and individual. Loss is public and social'' ...one of the best definitions of fascism -- the one used by Mussolini -- is the ``merger of state and corporate power`` ...Nobel prize-winning economist George Akerlof co-wrote a paper in 1993 describing the causes of the S&L crisis and other financial meltdowns...[Looting is the] common thread [when] countries took on excessive foreign debt, governments had to bail out insolvent financial institutions, real estate prices increased dramatically and then fell, or new financial markets experienced a boom and bust...Our theoretical analysis shows that an economic underground can come to life if firms have an incentive to go broke for profit at society's expense (to loot) instead of to go for broke (to gamble on success). Bankruptcy for profit will occur if poor accounting, lax regulation, or low penalties for abuse give owners an incentive to pay themselves more than their firms are worth and then default on their debt obligations ...Whether we use the terminology regarding socialism-for-the-giants (''socialized losses''), of fascism (''public and social losses''), or of looting (''left the government holding the bag for their eventual and predictable losses''), it amounts to the exact same thing. [kleptocracy] Great comments, including Joseph: Three core ideas characterize the myth of our society: 1. Free market; 2. Capitalism; 3. Democracy. The conceptual error that people make is to think that they are compatible, or indeed represent aspect of the same thing. In fact they are all deeply antagonistic towards each other. It is the miracle of post-war society that we managed to hold them in balance for so long. That balance has now been destroyed. A simple example of the contradiction, and the one that the over-socialised right finds most confusing, is the contradiction between capitalism and the market. Capitalism is a system of ownership; the market is a system of distribution. The perfect world for the capitalist is one in which they are price setters in terms of the commodities they produce and labour they employ -- ie a state of monopoly. Each individual capitalist seeks the destruction of the market. What has occurred over the past year is not corruption; it is the triumph of capitalism. The market and democracy have been defeated. Not socialism, not fascism,...

capitalism; Fascism; Guest Post; naked capitalism; social.

Wed 2009-02-11 00:00 EST

Calculated Risk: Roubini: U.S. Credit Losses may reach $3.6 Trillion

3; 6 trillion; Calculated Risk; reaching; Roubini; U.S. Credit Losses.

Fri 2008-12-12 00:00 EST

Calculated Risk: Roubini: Policies will lead to "much higher real interest rates on public debt"

Calculated Risk; higher real interest rates; lead; policies; public debt; Roubini.

Tue 2008-11-25 00:00 EST

Calculated Risk: Setser: "Thrilled" with Geithner Pick for Treasury

Brad Setser, Tim Duy, and Nouriel Roubini worked for Timothy Geithner in Treasury International Affairs

Calculated Risk; Geithner Picked; Setser; thrilled; Treasury.

Fri 2008-11-07 00:00 EST

naked capitalism: Brad Setser Begs to Differ With Nouriel Roubini on China

Brad Setser Begs; China; different; naked capitalism; Nouriel Roubini.

Wed 2008-10-22 00:00 EDT

naked capitalism: Roubini Warns of Possible Systemic Meltdown, "Severe Global Depression"

naked capitalism; Possible Systemic Meltdown; Roubini warning; severe global depression.

Tue 2008-10-07 00:00 EDT

naked capitalism: Nouriel Roubini Really, Really Hates the Bailout Plan

Bailout plan; naked capitalism; Nouriel Roubini Really; really hate.

Tue 2008-10-07 00:00 EDT

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Nouriel Roubini: Paulson Plan is a Disgrace

disgraceful; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis; Nouriel Roubini; Paulson plans.

Tue 2008-08-19 00:00 EDT

Angry Bear: Death of the American Empire?

Nouriel Roubini

American Empire; Angry Bear; death.

Tue 2008-07-22 00:00 EDT

Jesse's Café Américain: The Failure of the American Financial System

Jesse's Café Américain: The Failure of the American Financial System; Nouriel Roubini on ongoing collapse

American Financial System; failure; Jesse's Café Américain.

Sat 2008-07-12 00:00 EDT

naked capitalism: Roubini: Restructure Fannie, Freddie Debt, Skip "Mother of All Bailouts"

Bailout; Freddie Debt; mother; naked capitalism; Restructure Fannie; Roubini; skipping.

Wed 2008-07-09 00:00 EDT

naked capitalism: Roubini's on the Endgame for Bretton Woods 2

Bretton Woods 2; ENDGAME; naked capitalism; Roubini s.

Sun 2007-11-25 00:00 EST

RGE - With the Recession Becoming Inevitable the Consensus Shifts Towards the Hard Landing View. And the Rising Risk of a Systemic Financial Meltdown

by Nouriel Roubini

Consensus Shifts; Hard Landing View; Recession Becoming Inevitable; RGE; rising risks; System financial meltdown.

Thu 2007-11-15 00:00 EST

RGE - The Next Shoe to Drop in the Credit Meltdown: Commercial Real Estate and Its Massive Forthcoming Losses

by Nouriel Roubini

commercial real estate; credit Meltdowns; dropped; Massive Forthcoming Losses; RGE; shoe.

Tue 2007-11-06 00:00 EST

RGE Monitor

The bloodbath in credit and financial markets will continue and sharply worsen, by Nouriel Roubini

RGE Monitor.

Mon 2007-09-10 00:00 EDT

naked capitalism: Nouriel Roubini: "The Coming U.S. Hard Landing"

Coming U.S. Hard Landing; naked capitalism; Nouriel Roubini.

Fri 2007-09-07 00:00 EDT

Roubini Global Economics (RGE) Monitor

The Coming U.S. Hard Landing, by Nouriel Roubini; "the first real crisis of the new world of financial globalization and securitization"

monitor; RGE; Roubini Global Economics.

Fri 2007-09-07 00:00 EDT

Bogeymen of Financial Capitalism(The Korea Times)

Bogeymen of Financial Capitalism, by Nouriel Roubini (The Korea Times); Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWF); vast pool of state-controlled funds emerging

Bogeymen; Financial Capitalism; Korea Times.

Mon 2007-07-30 00:00 EDT

RGE - Are We at The Peak of a Minsky Credit Cycle?

Are We at The Peak of a Minsky Credit Cycle? by Nouriel Roubini; Minsky moment; credit bust

Minsky Credit Cycle; peak; RGE.

Tue 2007-03-20 00:00 EDT

RGE - Who is to Blame for the Mortgage Carnage and Coming Financial Disaster? Unregulated Free Market Fundamentalism Zealotry

by Nouriel Roubini

blames; Coming Financial Disaster; Mortgage Carnage; RGE; Unregulated Free Market Fundamentalism Zealotry.

Tue 2006-10-31 00:00 EST

RGE - Was Q3 GDP growth manipulated upwards because of the coming elections or is the US government clueless about measuring output?

by Nouriel Roubini

coming elections; government clueless; measurement output; Q3 GDP growth manipulated upwards; RGE.