The Guardian World News Fri 2009-11-20 09:45 EST

US pressure distorted oil figures, says whistleblower

Terry Macalister

Exclusive: Watchdog's estimates of reserves inflated says top official The world is much closer to running out of oil than official estimates admit, according to a whistleblower at the International Energy Agency who claims it has been deliberately underplaying a looming shortage for fear of triggering panic buying. The senior official claims the US has played an influential role in encouraging the watchdog to underplay the rate of decline from existing oil fields while overplaying the chances of finding new reserves. The allegations raise serious questions about the accuracy of the organisation's latest World Energy Outlook on oil demand and supply to be published tomorrow -- which is used by the British and many other governments to help guide their wider energy and climate change policies.

Guardian World News; pressure distorted oil figures; says whistleblowers.

Thu 2009-11-19 10:12 EST

Business & Technology | Part one | Reckless strategies doomed WaMu | Seattle Times Newspaper

Drew DeSilver

In its headlong pursuit of growth, WaMu systematically dismantled or weakened the internal controls meant to prevent the bank from taking on too much risk -- the very standards and practices that had helped it grow in the first place. WaMu's riskiest loans raked in money from high fees, but because the bank skimped on making sure borrowers could repay them, they eventually failed at disastrously high rates. As loans went bad, they sucked massive amounts of cash that WaMu needed to stay in business. WaMu's subprime home loans failed at the highest rates in nation. Foreclosure rates for subprime loans made from 2005 to 2007 -- the peak of the boom -- were calamitous. In the 10 hardest-hit cities, more than a third of WaMu subprime loans went into foreclosure.

business; part; Reckless Strategies Doomed WaMu; Seattle Times Newspaper; Technology.

naked capitalism Tue 2009-10-27 11:13 EDT

Guest Post: Global Rebalancing: The G20 and Bernanke Versions

Richard Alford, a former economist at the New York Fed

What was achieved at the G20 meeting in Pittsburgh to help restore global economic balance? The short answer: nothing of any substance as reflected in the conspicuous absent of any mention of two subjects, i.e. currency adjustments and protectionism.

Bernanke Versions; G20; Global Rebalancing; Guest Post; naked capitalism.

Mon 2009-10-26 09:13 EDT

Wall Street's Naked Swindle : Rolling Stone

Matt Taibbi

A scheme to flood the market with counterfeit stocks helped kill Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers -- and the feds have yet to bust the culprits. [naked short selling]

Rolling Stone; Wall Street's Naked Swindle.

Credit Writedowns Fri 2009-10-23 09:00 EDT

The next crisis is already under way

Wolfgang Munchau of the Financial Times wrote a very important comment piece in today's Financial Times. In it he said that central banks are targeting asset prices to avoid the brunt of cyclical downturns. This policy is inducing asset bubbles and creating a more volatile real economy with unpredictable negative consequences...Munchau invokes Hyman Minsky's model of financial instability to help explain how this sets us up for a volatile future because traditional macroeconomic theory is inadequate for understanding what got us to this point. In essence, the idyllic state of economic and price stability we know as ``the Great Moderation'' is really just a financialization of the economy. However, a large financial sector leads to excessive dependence on asset prices to fuel growth, which in turn leads to an accumulation of debt...

credit writedowns; Crisis; way.

Fri 2009-10-23 08:30 EDT

How Moody's sold its ratings - and sold out investors | McClatchy

Kevin G. Hall

As the housing market collapsed in late 2007, Moody's Investors Service, whose investment ratings were widely trusted, responded by purging analysts and executives who warned of trouble and promoting those who helped Wall Street plunge the country into its worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. A McClatchy investigation has found that Moody's punished executives who questioned why the company was risking its reputation by putting its profits ahead of providing trustworthy ratings for investment offerings. Instead, Moody's promoted executives who headed its "structured finance" division, which assisted Wall Street in packaging loans into securities for sale to investors. It also stacked its compliance department with the people who awarded the highest ratings to pools of mortgages that soon were downgraded to junk. Such products have another name now: "toxic assets."

Investors; McClatchy; Moody's Sold; rate; SOLD.

The Big Picture Wed 2009-10-14 11:36 EDT

Andy Xie: Here We Go Again

Former Morgan Stanley Analyst Andy Xie explains why China is a potential bubble: [Consider] the US Savings and Loans crisis of the late 1980s and early 1990s. The US Federal Reserve kept monetary policy loose to help the banking system. The dollar went into a prolonged bear market. During the descent, Asian economies that pegged their currencies to the dollar could increase money supply and lending without worrying about devaluation, but the money couldn't leave home due to the dollar's poor outlook, so it went into asset markets. When the dollar began to rebound in 1996, Asian economies came under tightening pressure that burst their asset bubbles. The collapsing asset prices triggered capital outflows that reinforced asset deflation. Asset deflation destroyed their banking systems. In short, the US banking crisis created the environment for a credit boom in Asia. When US banks recovered, Asian banks collapsed. Is China heading down the same path? There are many anecdotes to support the comparison. Property prices in Southeast Asia became higher than those in the US, but ``experts'' and government officials had stories to explain it, even though their per capita income was one-tenth that of the US. Their banks also commanded huge market capitalizations, as financial markets extended their growth ad infinitum. The same thing is happening in China today. When something seems too good to be true, it is. World trade -- the engine of global growth -- has collapsed. Employment is still contracting throughout the world. There are no realistic scenarios for the global economy to regain high and sustainable growth. China is an export-driven economy. Bank lending can support the economy for a short time, however, stocks are as expensive as during the heydays of the last bubble. Like all previous bubbles, this one, too, will burst.

Andy Xie; Big Picture; Go.

zero hedge Sun 2009-10-11 16:45 EDT

Interview With A Mad Hedge Fund Trader

...Mad Hedge: Stay away from natural gas. The volatility will kill you. If you are a masochist, then buy it only when it's cheap, on big dips, in the $3/MBTU range. In the last three years, thanks to the new ``fracting'' technology used in oil shales, we have discovered a 100 year supply of natural gas sitting under the US, and the producers have not been able to cut back fast enough. So now we have a supply glut, and we are almost out of storage. This is what took us down from $13 to $2.40 in 18 months. The lack of hurricanes has not helped demand either. Producers have been cutting back like crazy, trying to balance supply and demand, with a breakeven point of $2. They need a cold winter to help bring things back into balance. If the industry gets organized, then gas can become the 20 year bridge we need, until energy alternatives kick in. That makes me a big supporter of the ``Pickens Plan.''

interview; Mad Hedge Fund Trader; Zero Hedge.

Jesse's Café Américain Sun 2009-10-11 15:55 EDT

The Speculative Bubble in Equities and the Case for Deflation, Stagflation and Implosion

Jesse

As part of their program of 'quantitative easing' which is another name for currency devaluation through extraordinary expansion of the monetary base, the Fed has very obviously created an inflationary bubble in the US equity market...The monetary stimulus of the Fed and the Treasury to help the economy is similar to relief aid sent to a suffering Third World country. It is intercepted and seized by a despotic regime and allocated to its local warlords, with very little going to help the people...quantitative easing that is not part of an overall program to reform, regulate, and renew the system to change and correct the elements that caused the crisis in the first place, is nothing more than a Ponzi scheme...The most probable path is a lingering death for the dollar over the next ten years, with a productive economy that continues to stagger forward under the rule of the financial oligarchs.

Case; deflation; Equities; implosion; Jesse's Café Américain; Speculative bubbles; Stagflation.

Willem Buiter's Maverecon Sat 2009-10-10 14:00 EDT

Expect little and you may yet be disappointed

Willem Buiter

...the most disappointing development this year was the performance of president Barack Obama and his administration - and my expectations were modest to begin with...On the fiscal side, Barack Obama is presiding over the biggest peace-time government deficits and public debt build-up ever. According to my back-of-the-envelope calculations there is about a 10 percent of GDP gap between the medium and longer-term spending plans of the Obama administration and the taxes the Congress is willing and able to impose. The reality that you cannot run a West-European welfare state (with decent quality health care, decent pre-school, primary and secondary school education for all), rebuild America's crumbling infrastructure, invest in the environment and fulfill your post-imperial global strategic ambitions while raising 33 percent of GDP in taxes, has not yet dawned on the Obama administration or on the American people at large...Clearly, the qualities one needs to get elected to high office in western democracies are not qualities that are likely to be helpful once you have achieved high office and are expected to govern and lead. To survive the selection process to become president you have to be able to stitch together a coalition of special interests that can provide sufficient financial and sweat equity resources to win this grueling race to the top. Once you get there, you should shed the unfortunate baggage you accumulated on your way up and govern in the interest of all the people. Few can do that. Apparently Obama is not one of them.

disappointment; expectations; Willem Buiter's Maverecon.

The Full Feed from HuffingtonPost.com Sat 2009-10-10 13:01 EDT

Elizabeth Warren: Serious Questions Remain About Obama's Loan Relief Plan

The Huffington Post News Editors

The Obama administration's effort to help homeowners avoid foreclosure may not achieve its goal of helping 3 million to 4 million borrowers and may simply delay mortgage defaults for many, a government watchdog group says. The Congressional Oversight Panel, charged with making regular assessments of the $700 billion financial rescue fund enacted last year, said the Treasury Department should consider whether to improve the current $50 billion program or adopt new programs to meet an expected rise in foreclosures fed by increased unemployment...

com; Elizabeth Warren; full Feeds; HuffingtonPost; Obama's Loan Relief Plan; Serious questions remain.

Calculated Risk Tue 2009-09-22 09:28 EDT

GAO Report: AIG Stabilized, Repayment "Unclear"

CalculatedRisk

A report on AIG from the General Accounting Office (GAO): While federal assistance has helped stabilize AIG's financial condition, GAO-developed indicators suggest that AIG's ability to restructure its business and repay the government is unclear at this time.

AIG Stabilized; Calculated Risk; GAO report; repayments; unclear.

The Economic Populist - Speak Your Mind 2 Cents at a Time Mon 2009-09-21 14:33 EDT

Fed accounts for 50% of treasury purchases

There once was a time when the Federal Reserve abhorred the idea of monetizing debt. That day is long over. In the second quarter, the most recent for which data is available, the Fed bought $164 billion out of the $339 billion in net new Treasurys sold. In the mortgage-backed debt markets, the Fed has been buying upward of 80% of the bonds issued by agencies such as Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. ZeroHedge helps to put this number into perspective: the Fed was a greater factor in UST demand than all three traditional players combined: Foreigners, Households and Primary Dealers, which amounted to a $158 billion in net Q2 purchases.

50; economic populist; Fed Accountable; Mind 2 Cents; speaking; Time; Treasury purchases.

Bank-Implode! Sun 2009-09-20 12:22 EDT

Bank-Implode! >> Blog Archive >> Exclusive -- Wells Fargo's Commercial Portfolio is a ticking time bomb

In order to sort through the disaster that is Wells Fargo's (quote: WFC) commercial loan portfolio, the bank has hired help from outside experts to pour over the books... and they are shocked with what they are seeing. Not only do the bank's outstanding commercial loans collectively exceed the property values to which they are attached, but derivative trades leftover from its acquisition of Wachovia are creating another set of problems for the already beleaguered San Francisco-based megabank...According to sources currently working out these loans at Wells Fargo, when selling tranches of commercial mortgage-backed securities below the super senior tranche, Wachovia promised to pay the buyer's risk premium by writing credit default swap contracts against these subordinate bonds...should the junior tranches eventually default, then the bank is on the hook.

bank implode; blogs Archive; exclusive; ticking time bomb; Wells Fargo's commercial portfolio.

The Full Feed from HuffingtonPost.com Thu 2009-09-17 10:06 EDT

Priceless: How The Federal Reserve Bought The Economics Profession

Ryan Grim

The Federal Reserve, through its extensive network of consultants, visiting scholars, alumni and staff economists, so thoroughly dominates the field of economics that real criticism of the central bank has become a career liability for members of the profession, an investigation by the Huffington Post has found. This dominance helps explain how, even after the Fed failed to foresee the greatest economic collapse since the Great Depression, the central bank has largely escaped criticism from academic economists.

com; economics profession; Federal Reserve bought; full Feeds; HuffingtonPost; priceless.

Thu 2009-09-17 10:02 EDT

``No One Saw This Coming'': Understanding Financial Crisis Through Accounting Models - Munich RePEc Personal Archive

Dirk J. Bezemer

This paper presents evidence that accounting (or flow-of-fund) macroeconomic models helped anticipate the credit crisis and economic recession. Equilibrium models ubiquitous in mainstream policy and research did not. This study identifies core differences, traces their intellectual pedigrees, and includes case studies of both types of models. It so provides constructive recommendations on revising methods of financial stability assessment. Overall, the paper is a plea for research into the link between accounting concepts and practices and macro economic outcomes.

accounts model; comes; Munich RePEc Personal Archive; saw; Understanding Financial Crisis.