Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Mon 2009-10-12 09:22 EDT

One Hand Clapping Theory Analyzed

Michael Shedlock

Numerous people have asked me to comment on Chris Martenson's article The Sound of One Hand Clapping - What Deflationists May Be Missing. Chris Writes: ...``Trillions in probable and provable losses quietly exist, out of sight, on the balance sheets of the Federal Reserve and other financial institutions. If they ever come out of hiding and onto the books, I think the deflationists will be proven correct beyond all doubt. But let me ask this: What prevents the authorities from simply storing them out of sight forever?...I am now wondering if they cannot keep this up indefinitely.'' ...In a credit based economy, the odds of a sustainable rebound without bank credit expanding, and consumers participating is not very good. Even if one mistakenly assumes that the recent rally is a result of pretending, should we count on sustained success now more so than a measurement of stock prices in April of 1930, or any of Japans' four 50% rallies? I think not. Pretending cannot accomplish much other than prolonging the agony for decades. This is the message of Japan. Moreover, the US is arguably is worse shape than Japan because our problems are unsustainable consumer debt, high unemployment, and massive retail sector overcapacity. Those are structural problems that no amount of pretending in the world can possibly cure. In due time, the market will focus on those problems.

hand clapping theory analyzed; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis.

Sun 2009-10-11 18:48 EDT

The Ongoing Plight of the U.S. "Nightcrawler" - Part 2 | zero hedge

We're just as scroomed as we were a year ago--skying stock markets and gold-hating trolls posting "Gold isn't money" notwithstanding. There is absolutey ZERO chance that the Fed raises their Fed Funds Politburo rates, and a ONE HUNDRED PERCENT CERTAINTY that both the Fed and Uncle Sugar MUST continue their monetizations, back stops and being the "lenders, insurers, and market of last resort" for all things credit, but especially the McHousing market where they have multi-trillion fiatsco exposure. So, it is little wonder that the U.S. fiatsco is getting pounded in the currency casino and that people are piling into PMs in droves--even going so far as to DEMAND physical delivery from the corrupt exchanges, even as the jawboning and pie-holing by the Fed Heads and Treasury twerps continues unabated. Because we are still very much in the midst of the "convulsions" of collapse AND the massive monetary and fiscal insanity the Fed and Uncle are undertaking to fight them.

nightcrawlers; Ongoing Plight; Part 2; U.S.; Zero Hedge.

naked capitalism Thu 2009-10-08 16:47 EDT

Latvia in Crisis; Threatens to Stiff Swedish Banks With Mini-Jubilee

Latvia and to a lesser extent Estonia and Lithuania had a massive and unsustainable current account deficit...Foreign benefactors have just put the choke collar on Latvia. The government was unable to roll over its debt this week...Sweden on Tuesday put pressure on the tiny Baltic nation to fulfill required spending cuts, threatening to withhold payments [from a] euro rescue loan put together by Nordic countries...But Latvia does not appear to be ready to accede to Sweden's demands. The immediate cause for concern is that Latvia will simultaneously devalue its currency and provide a mechanism for its consumers to partially default on mortgages held by foreign banks.

Crisis; Latvia; Mini-Jubilee; naked capitalism; Stiff Swedish Banks; threatens.

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Thu 2009-10-08 15:29 EDT

Competitive Currency Debasement - A Look at Rampant Monetary Expansion In China

Michael Shedlock

The Chinese central banks' printing and respective Chinese bank lending make us look like amateurs. Chinese central bank assets and the money supply are up 25-26% annualized YTD...nearly everyone is absolutely sure the Renminbi would soar if China allowed it to float. Conceivably it could crash...Neither the G-20 nor G-7 did anything to address the massive global imbalances. Something critical is going to blow sky high, when and what remains to be seen.

China; Competitive Currency Debasement; looking; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis; Rampant Monetary Expansion.

Tue 2009-09-29 11:33 EDT

How Bad Will It Get?

Mike Whitney, CounterPunch

In the two years since the crisis began, neither the Fed nor policymakers at the Treasury have taken steps to remove toxic assets from banks balance sheets. The main arteries for credit still remain clogged despite the fact that the Bernanke has added nearly $900 billion in excess reserves to the banking system. Consumers continue to reduce their borrowing despite historically low interest rates and the banks are still hoarding capital to pay off losses from non performing loans and bad assets. Changes in the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) rules for mark-to-market accounting of assets have made it easier for underwater banks to hide their red ink, but, eventually, the losses have to be reported. The wave of banks failures is just now beginning to accelerate. It should persist into 2011. The system is gravely under-capitalized and at risk...The economy cannot recover without a strong consumer. But consumers and households have suffered massive losses and are deeply in debt. Credit lines have been reduced and, for many, the only source of revenue is the weekly paycheck...The current recession has exposed the fault-lines dividing the classes in the US. Neither party represents working people. Both the Democrats and the Republicans are supportive of "social engineering for the rich"; regressive taxation and economic policies which shift a greater portion of the wealth to the richest Americans. The question of inequality, which has grown to levels not seen since the Gilded Age, will dominate the national conversation as the recession deepens and more people slip from the ranks of the middle class...After Obama's stimulus runs out, consumer spending will again sputter and the economy will slide back into recession.

bad.

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Mon 2009-09-21 14:09 EDT

Is Pent-Up Inflation From Fed Printing Waiting On Deck?

Michael Shedlock

Inquiring minds are wondering about the possibility of "pent-up" inflation from the massive expansion money supply by the Fed...Hardly. A funny thing happened to the inflation theory: Banks aren't lending and proof can be found in excess reserves at member banks. Because of rising credit card defaults, commercial real estate defaults, foreclosures, walk-aways, and other bad debts, banks need those reserves to cover future losses...banks are insolvent, unable or unwilling to lend. Moreover, tapped out consumers are unable or unwilling to borrow.

deck; Fed Printing Waiting; Inflation; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis; pent.

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Sun 2009-09-20 11:23 EDT

Yellen Calls For "U" Shaped Recession and Another Jobless Recovery

Michael Shedlock

...excerpts from Janet Yellen's Outlook for Recovery in the U.S. Economy: ...the complex topic of inflation. In my career, I have never witnessed a situation like the one that exists now, when views about inflation risks have coalesced into two diametrically opposed camps. On the one hand, one group worries about the long-term inflationary implications of a seemingly endless procession of massive federal budget deficits. At the same time, others fear that economic slack and downward wage pressure are pushing inflation below rates that are considered consistent with price stability and even raising the specter of outright deflation... My personal belief is that the more significant threat to price stability over the next several years stems from the disinflationary forces unleashed by the enormous slack in the economy.

Jobless Recovery; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis; Shaped Recession; U; Yellen called.

Jesse's Café Américain Sun 2009-09-20 11:07 EDT

Stock Market Rally: Shenanigans Abounding

Jesse

...The US markets in general have every mark of a maturing Ponzi scheme...Bonds, stocks, metals, sugar, cocoa, and oil are all moving higher, while the dollar sinks. Is the dollar funding a new carry trade?...We remain guardedly 'optimistic' on the markets for next year ONLY because of the Fed's and Treasury's willingness to continue to debase the dollar to cover the massive unrealized losses in the banks' portfolios, even as they return to manipulating markets in business as usual. Inflation is good for financial assets, and we think another bubble is in the cards, at least for now given Obama's unwillingness to reform, unless some exogenous event or actor intervenes...

Jesse's Café Américain; Shenanigans Abounding; stock market rally.

naked capitalism Sun 2009-09-13 16:32 EDT

Guest Post: The Economy Will Not Recover Until Trust is Restored

George Washington of Washington's Blog

...our economy is not fundamentally stabilizing ...because the government and the financial giants are taking actions and releasing data which encourage more distortion and less trust..all of the happy talk in the world won't turn the economy around when the fundamentals of the economy are lousy, or there has been a giant bubble and vast overleveraging, or there has been massive fraud, or the government has gone so far into debt that it has formed a black hole... the chair of the congressional oversight committee of the bailouts (Elizabeth Warren) and the senior regulator during the S & L crisis (William Black) both say that hiding the true state of affairs and trying to put a happy face on an economic crisis just prolongs the length and severity of the crash...trying to instill false confidence will actually backfire on Summers, Geithner, Bernanke and the boys and make the crisis worse.

economy; Guest Post; naked capitalism; recover; restore; trust.

The Economic Populist - Speak Your Mind 2 Cents at a Time Fri 2009-09-11 17:54 EDT

90% of Residential Loans U.S. taxpayer backed

Buried in a Washington Post article: 90 percent of all new home loans are funded or guaranteed by taxpayers...taxpayers are on the hook for most of the loans that are still being made if they go bad. And they are also on the line for any losses in the massive portfolios of old loans at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which own or back more than $5 trillion in mortgages.

90; economic populist; Mind 2 Cents; Residential Loans U.S. taxpayer backed; speaking; Time.

The Big Picture Thu 2009-09-03 15:36 EDT

BLS Birth Death Conundrum ?

B/D defenders were horrifically wrong across the board about nearly everything -- about the housing crisis, the credit collapse, the recession, the market crash, and of course, the massive loss of jobs since hiring peaked late 2007-08...

Big Picture; BLS Birth Death Conundrum.

Minyanville Thu 2009-09-03 11:31 EDT

Tred Carefully When Trading UNG

James Kostohryz

The collapse of the natural gas market in the US has been breathtaking. And if you need anything else to worry about United States Natural Gas (UNG) -- which is in the midst of a massive liquidation -- is selling at a premium somewhere in the neighborhood of 20% relative to the spot price of the commodity. Thus the end to the carnage is not apparent.

Minyanville; Trading UNG; Tred Carefully.

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Sun 2009-08-30 12:03 EDT

Greater Than One in Four FDIC Insured Institutions are Unprofitable; Bank Problem List at 15 Year High

Michael Shedlock

The second quarter 2009 Quarterly Banking Profile has some interesting charts and facts that inquiring minds will be interested in.Insured Institution Performance Higher Loss Provisions Lead to a $3.7 Billion Net LossMore Than One in Four Institutions Are UnprofitableCharge-Offs and Noncurrent Loans Continue to RiseNet Interest Margins Show Modest ImprovementIndustry Assets Decline by $238 BillionThe Industry Posts a Net Loss for the Quarter The Industry Posts a Net Loss for the Quarter Burdened by costs associated with rising levels of troubled loans and falling asset values, FDIC-insured commercial banks and savings institutions reported an aggregate net loss of $3.7 billion in the second quarter of 2009. Increased expenses for bad loans were chiefly responsible for the industry's loss. Insured institutions added $66.9 billion in loan-loss provisions to their reserves... ``Conventional wisdom regarding money supply suggests there is massive pent up inflation in the works as a result of the buildup of excess reserves...The reality is excessive debt and falling asset prices have rendered the best efforts of the Fed impotent. Banks are not well capitalized, they are insolvent, unwilling and unable to lend.''

15-year high; Bank problem listings; FDIC insured institutions; greater; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis; unprofitable.

Thu 2009-07-30 00:00 EDT

Zero Hedge: The Exuberance Glut Or The Dollar-Euro Short Squeeze Race

-- David Roche ``the securitization of debt, and creation of derivatives amounted to a huge virtual printing press, primarily fueled by a massive increase in risk appetite which allowed for a huge expansion in the value of claims on financial assets and goods and services...the Fed has little to no control over this "printing press" at this point, which at last count was responsible for over 90% of the liquidity in the system''

Dollar-Euro Short Squeeze Race; Exuberance Glut; Zero Hedge.

Thu 2009-07-30 00:00 EDT

Hussman Funds - The Destructive Implications of the Bailout - Understanding Equilibrium - May 18, 2009

-- ``The Treasury has issued an enormous volume of debt into the frightened hands of investors seeking default-free securities. This has allowed the Treasury to finance a massive and largely needless transfer of wealth to bank bondholders so easily over the short-term that the longer-term cost has been almost completely obscured...transferring wealth from those who did not finance reckless loans to those who did... the Treasury and Federal Reserve have crowded out more than a trillion dollars of gross investment that would have otherwise have been made by responsible people in the coming years, shifted assets to the control of those who have proven themselves to be irresponsible destroyers of capital, and have planted the seeds of inflation that will cut short any emerging recovery.''

18; 2009; Bailout; Destructive Implications; Hussman Funds; Understanding Equilibrium.

Wed 2009-05-20 00:00 EDT

naked capitalism: Guest Post: Exxon Pension Fund Sues Northern Trust Alleging "Reckless, Massive Losses"

Exxon Pension Fund Sues Northern Trust Alleging; Guest Post; massive losses; naked capitalism; reckless.