Jesse's Café Américain Thu 2010-04-01 11:50 EDT

Brown's Bottom Is an Enormous Issue In the UK: Was This a Bailout of the Multinational Bullion Banks Involving the NY Fed?

Jesse

The bottom referred to, of course, is the bottom of the gold price, and the sale of approximately 400 tonnes of the UK's gold at the bottom of the market...There is also a credible speculation that the sale was designed to benefit a few of the London based bullion banks which were heavily short the precious metals, and were looking for a push down in price and a boost in supply to cover their positions and avoid a default. The unlikely names mentioned were AIG, which was trading heavily in precious metals, and the House of Rothschild. The terms of the bailout was that once their positions were covered, they were to leave the LBMA, the largest physical bullion market in the world...long before AIG crafted its enormous positions in CDS with the likes of Goldman Sachs, requiring a bailout by young Tim and the NY Fed, it was engaging in massive short positions in the metals markets, especially silver, and may have required a bailout by England to preserve the integrity of the LBMA....the gold sale provided a front-running opportunity for that most rapaciously well-connected of Wall Street Banks, Goldman Sachs.

Bailout; Brown s bottom; Enormous Issue; Jesse's Café Américain; Multinational Bullion Banks Involving; NY Fed; UK.

Jesse's Café Américain Thu 2010-04-01 08:44 EDT

The Monetary Base During the Great Depression and Today

Jesse

...I always allow that deflation and inflation are policy decisions, at some point a threshold can be passed, and the likelihood of one event or the other becomes more compelling. The US is at that crossroads wherein it must change, or go down the painful path of selective monetary default, of a degree different than a hyperinflation, more similar to that which was seen in the former Soviet Union, than the monetary implosion of a Weimar. One can watch the growth of the traditional or even innovative money supply figures, and be reassured at their nominal levels, only to misunderstand that money has a character and quantity of backing, that can erode as surely as the supply of money can increase, to produce a type of inflation that comes upon a nation quickly, like a thief in the night. It will bear the appearance of stagflation, because it is caused by a degeneration of the productive economy coupled with a disproportionately increasing money supply...

Great Depression; Jesse's Café Américain; monetary base.

Jesse's Café Américain Tue 2010-03-09 17:42 EST

Are Traders Demanding US Credit Default Swaps Payable in Gold?

Jesse

...I have a great deal of respect and admiration for Janet Tavakoli and her knowledge in this area. If she is seeing a new demand for Credit Default Swaps on the US payable in gold I would credit it since this is her area of expertise and industry connections...if the existence of CDS on the default or downgrade of US sovereign debt payable in gold bullion be true, who would be in a position to stand behind these Credit Default Swaps with any reliability, and what buyer would be in a position to make such a demand of a credible source?

Credit Default Swaps Payable; gold; Jesse's Café Américain; Traders Demand.

The Money Game Tue 2010-03-09 17:38 EST

Speculators Bid Up AMBAC CDS, As Fears Of A Municipal Default Wave Proliferate

Here's the latest from DebtWire: The CDS market is signaling increased fears that Ambac operating company Ambac Assurance will enter receivership within the year as fear of a municipal bond crisis spreads...

AMBAC CDS; fears; Money game; Municipal Default Wave Proliferate; Speculative bid.

The Full Feed from HuffingtonPost.com Tue 2010-03-09 17:30 EST

Janet Tavakoli: Washington Must Ban U.S. Credit Derivatives as Traders Demand Gold

Janet Tavakoli

Congress should act immediately to abolish credit default swaps on the United States, because these derivatives will foment distortions in global currencies and gold. Failure to act now will only mean the U.S. will be forced to act after these "financial weapons of mass destruction" levy heavy casualties. These obligations now settle in euros, but the end game is to settle them in gold. This is so ripe for speculative manipulation that you might as well cover the U.S. map with a bull's-eye...

Ban U.S. Credit Derivatives; com; full Feeds; HuffingtonPost; Janet Tavakoli; Traders Demand Gold; WASHINGTON.

Bruce Krasting Tue 2010-03-09 17:10 EST

Some Thoughts on Fannie's Horrible Year

Bruce Krasting

Fannie Mae released it's annual and 4th Q numbers after the close on Friday and during one hell of a messy snowstorm. FNM posted a loss of $16.3b for the quarter and $74.4b for the year. An unmitigated disaster. The timing of the release suggests that they were hoping that no one would notice how bad the last twelve months were. There was nothing particularly new in the most recent quarter, just more bad news. What is happening at Fannie is also happening at Freddie Mac and to a different extent at FHA. There are some trends that I think are worth noting...they have moved to restrict lending to better borrowers...all three of the D.C. mortgage lenders are pulling on the credit reins...It will be harder to get a mortgage in one month from today and even harder to get one six moths from today. For me the implications of this are very obvious. Broad RE values will have to go lower, high-end homes will suffer the most in percentage drops...the biggest seller of RE over the past 24 months in America has been the federal government...The vast majority of defaults come because borrowers are underwater. Falling RE prices are the number one contributor to the default cycle...

Bruce Krasting; Fannie's Horrible Year; thought.

Sun 2010-02-28 13:43 EST

"Sultans of Swap" by Gordon T Long, FSU Editorial 02/24/2010

...When asked why there are $605 Trillion derivatives outstanding (1) how do you articulate an answer to this horrendous and almost unimaginable number? The US is the largest economy in the world but tallies only 2.3% in comparison. Global bank reserves amount to only 1.2% of this accumulation. The gargantuan size appears to defy all logic...we discover the Sultans of Swap. The Bond Vigilantes are of a previous era. They are dead -- RIP. Through the magic mix of Credit Default Swaps, Dynamic Hedging and Interest Rate Swaps the Sultans of Swaps effectively control interest rate spreads. Through Regulatory Arbitrage they extort tremendous political sway globally. They live in the world of risk free spreads. Low interest rates simply attract more volume for their concoctions. We have had an explosion in Money Supply globally as the charts (right) indicate. The parabolic rise matches the increase in these derivative products along with their ability to turn Interest Rate Swaps into high powered bank lending...Everything is based on tax payers paying, GDP expanding and interest rates staying low...

FSU Editorial 02/24/2010; Gordon T Long; sultans; Swap.

Sun 2010-02-28 13:32 EST

GEAB N°42 is available! Second half of 2010: Sudden intensification of the global systemic crisis -- Strengthening of five fundamental negative trends

Marie-Helene Caillol

LEAP/E2020 is of the view that the effect of States' spending trillions to <<; counteract the crisis >> will have fizzled out. These vast sums had the effect of slowing down the development of the systemic global crisis for several months but, as anticipated in previous GEAB reports, this strategy will only have ultimately served to clearly drag States into the crisis caused by the financial institutions. Therefore our team anticipates, in this 42nd issue of the GEAB, a sudden intensification of the crisis in the second half of 2010, caused by a double effect of a catching up of events which were temporarily <<; frozen >> in the second half of 2009 and the impossibility of maintaining the palliative remedies of past years...The sudden intensification of the global systemic crisis will be characterised by the acceleration and/or strengthening of five fundamental negative trends: . the explosion of the bubble in public deficits and a corresponding increase in state defaults . the fatal impact of the Western banking system with mounting debt defaults and the wall of debt coming to maturity . the inescapable rise in interest rates . the increase in issues causing international tension . a growing social insecurity.

2010; available; fundamental negative trends; GEAB N°42; Global systemic crisis; strengthen; Sudden intensification.

naked capitalism Sun 2010-02-28 13:23 EST

Rogoff Foresees A Wave of Sovereign Debt Defaults

Kenneth Rogoff, former IMF chief economist warned that a series of sovereign debt defaults is likely to be in the offing...Rogoff is far from alone in seeing sovereign defaults as likely, but so far, the chorus of concern comes mainly from analysts and investors rather than well-known economists (Willem Buiter was notable exception in that regard). One correspondent said that one of his sources, with impeccable contacts, anticipates 12 sovereign debt defaults in the EU...

naked capitalism; Rogoff Foresees; sovereign debt Default; wave.

naked capitalism Sun 2010-02-28 13:13 EST

Das: Mark to Make Believe -- Still Toxic After All These Years!

Satyajit Das

n 2007, as the credit crisis commenced, paradoxically, nobody actually defaulted. Outside of sub-prime delinquencies, corporate defaults were at a record low. Instead, investors in high quality (AAA or AA) rated securities, that are unlikely to suffer real losses if held to maturity, faced paper -- mark-to-market (``MtM'') -- losses. In modern financial markets, market values drive asset values, profits and losses, risk calculations and the value of collateral supporting loans. Accounting standards, both in the U.S.A. and internationally, are now based on theoretically sound market values that are problematic in practice. The standards emerged from the past financial crisis where the use of ``historic cost'' accounting meant that losses on loans remained undisclosed because they continued to be carried at face value. The standards also reflect the fact that many modern financial instruments (such as derivatives) can only be accounted for in MtM framework. MtM accounting itself is flawed. There are difficulties in establishing real values of many instruments. It creates volatility in earnings attributable to inefficiencies in markets rather than real changes in financial position...

Das; Make-Believe; marked; naked capitalism; toxic; years.

naked capitalism Sun 2010-02-28 13:08 EST

Martin Wolf is Very Gloomy, and With Good Reason

Martin Wolf, the Financial Times' highly respected chief economics editor, weighs in with a pretty pessimistic piece tonight. This makes for a companion to Peter Boone and Simon Johnson's Doomsday cycle post from yesterday...With the private sector debt overhang as great as it is, I doubt there is a way out of our mess that does not involve a period of debt restructuring and writeoffs. That process, no matter how adeptly handled, results in dislocation and has a chilling effect on bystanders...Swedish Lex interestingly sees another possible brake that may become operative prior to another bubble/bust cycle. He believes that the EU has much less tolerance for underwriting zombie banks than the US. The EuroBanks have written off less in the way of losses than their US peers, are also exposed to any EU sovereign debt defaults, and yet the biggest are still crucial parts of the international capital markets infrastructure (and therefore still tightly coupled to the very biggest US/UK firms). While any EU sovereign debt defaults could morph into a full blown crisis, the EU responses to the joint sovereign/bank debt overhang could lead to more radical changes in EU banking rules and practices that could blow back to the very biggest US banks in unexpected ways.

gloomy; good reason; Martin Wolf; naked capitalism.

THE PRAGMATIC CAPITALIST Wed 2010-02-10 11:22 EST

AN INSIDER'S VIEW OF THE REAL ESTATE TRAIN WRECK

TPC

The first time I spoke with real estate entrepreneur Andy Miller was in late 2007, when I asked him to serve on the faculty of a Casey Research Summit...what most intrigued me about Andy was that he had been almost alone among his peer group in foreseeing the coming end of the real estate bubble, and in liquidating essentially all of his considerable portfolio of projects near the top...he remains deeply concerned about the outlook for real estate...the United States home mortgage market has been nationalized without anybody noticing...If government support goes away, and it will go away, where will that leave the home market? It leaves you with a catastrophe...eventually the bond market is going to gag on the government-sponsored paper...commercial properties are not performing and that values have gone down, although I've got to tell you, the denial is still widespread, particularly in the United States and on the part of lenders sitting on and servicing all these real estate portfolios...The current volume of defaults is already alarming. And the volume of commercial real estate defaults is growing every month...When you hit that breaking point, unless there's some alternative in place, it's going to be a very hideous picture for the bond market and the banking system...second quarter 2010 is a guess...the FDIC and the Treasury Department have decided that rather than see 1,000 or 2,000 banks go under and then create another RTC to sift through all the bad assets, they'll let the banking system warehouse the bad assets. Their plan is to leave the assets in place, and then, when the market changes, let the banks deal with them. Now, that's horribly destructive...it's exactly a Japanese-style solution...The entire U.S. residential mortgage market has in effect been nationalized, but there wasn't any act of Congress, no screaming and shouting, no headlines in the Wall Street Journal or the New York Times...That's a template for what they could do with the commercial loan market.

insider's view; pragmatic capitalists; Real Estate Train Wreck.

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Sun 2010-02-07 18:15 EST

Nonperforming Loans in China Rise to "Trillions of Renminbi"

Michael Shedlock

Inquiring minds are questioning the solvency of the Chinese banking system. Please consider China Defaulting Loans Soar, Insolvency Lawyer Says. Non-performing loans in China have risen into the ``trillions of renminbi'' because of poor lending practices, an insolvency lawyer said...The US, led by Hillary Clinton and president Obama, is putting enormous pressure on China to float the RMB, in expectation that it would rise and US exports would soar. I believe that if China floated the RMB on the Forex markets, it might crash.

China rises; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis; nonperforming loans; renminbi; trillion.

Wed 2010-02-03 19:45 EST

Bankruptcy Judge Invalidates Securitization Payment Structure >> HousingWire

A federal bankruptcy court judge in New York ruled earlier this week that long-held assumptions about payments owed to a counterparty in securitization deals cannot be enforced under US Bankruptcy Code, in a decision set to upend the securitization market. The decision was handed down by Judge James Peck, the judge overseeing the Lehman Brothers bankruptcy proceedings, who said that certain contractual provisions in a Lehman collateralized default obligation (CDO) are unenforceable under Chapter 11.

Bankruptcy Judge Invalidates Securitization Payment Structure; HousingWire.

Clusterfuck Nation Sun 2010-01-31 11:40 EST

Marching Toward Zombieland

James Howard Kunstler

...The questions lately revolve around whether the nation is destroying itself by inflation or deflation - by the willful destruction of the value of our currency to evade the repayment of debt, or by the hapless destruction of households, companies, and governments by default and bankruptcy. It's a fire-or-ice debate. Either way the nation is going down as a viable enterprise. The fiction that we can return to a Crate-and-Barrel credit card orgy has sustained the false of heart and mind for some months now, but even that pleasant reverie will come to an end as the foreclosures mount. Only remember, men living in their cars who have lost nearly everything else will still have guns.

Clusterfuck Nation; March; Zombieland.

Calculated Risk Wed 2010-01-13 12:01 EST

HAMP Loan Modifications and the Fifth Amendment

CalculatedRisk

...The homedebtor enjoyed some initial success arguing a non-judicial foreclosure was a violation of due process...The homedebtors are named Huxtable and Agnew. Interestingly, Agnew is also listed as the "lead attorney" for the plaintiffs. The plaintiffs defaulted in late 2007, and the bank began a non-judicial foreclosure process in late 2008. The plaintiffs filed suit in federal court to stop the foreclosure, naming as defendants Timothy Geithner, the FHFA the lender and the servicer. The plaintiffs were allegedly denied a HAMP modification, and they claim the government and the bank violated the plaintiffs' right to "due process under the Fifth Amendment for failing to create rules implementing HAMP that comport with due process."...The judge refused to dismiss the case because the plaintiffs might be able to prove the government has "insinuated itself into a position of interdependence" with the bank.

amendment; Calculated Risk; HAMP Loan Modifications.