naked capitalism Thu 2010-09-16 17:05 EDT

Elizabeth Warren on Way to Being Sidelined as Head of Consumer Protection Agency, Relegated to ``Advisor'' Role

The body language of the Administration has been clear from the outset on the question of whether Elizabeth Warren would get its nomination to head of the new financial services consumer protection agency. Despite the occasional public remark regarding her undeniable competence, which really amounted to damning her with faint praise, Team Obama has never been on board with the idea...The reality is that the Administration was never going to appoint her; the only question is whether she can be kept in their orbit and not be a net negative as far as their dubious priorities are concerned...the Warren marginalization isn't about personalities, although the powers that be love to pigeonhole thorns in their side that way. The clashes reflect fundamental differences in philosophy. Geithner, the Administration that stands behind him, and Dodd all are staunch defenders of our rapacious financial services industry, even though they make occasional moves to disguise that fact. Warren, by contrast, is clearly a skeptic, and a dangerous one to boot, because she understands the abuses well and is able to communicate effectively with the public. Expect Warren to be pushed further to the sidelines, just as Paul Volcker has been (oh, and pulled out of mothballs when the Administration desperately needed to create the appearance it really might be tough on banks)...

advisors; consumers protection Agency; Elizabeth Warren; Head; naked capitalism; relegation; role; sidelined; way.

naked capitalism Wed 2010-09-08 17:27 EDT

Economic consequences of speculative side bets -- The case of naked CDS

Yeon-Koo Che and Rajiv Sethi

...We argue that the existence of naked credit default swaps has significant effects on the terms of financing, the likelihood of default, and the size and composition of investment expenditures. And we identify three mechanisms through which these broader consequences of speculative side bets arise: collateral effects, rollover risk, and project choice...the existence of zero-sum side bets on default has major economic repercussions. These contracts induce investors who are optimistic about the future revenues of borrowers, and would therefore be natural purchasers of debt, to sell credit protection instead. This diverts their capital away from potential borrowers and channels it into collateral to support speculative positions. As a consequence, the marginal bond buyer is less optimistic about the borrower's prospects, and demands a higher interest rate in order to lend. This can result in an increased likelihood of default, and the emergence of self-fulfilling paths in which firms are unable to rollover their debt, even when such trajectories would not arise in the absence of credit derivatives. And it can influence the project choices of firms, leading not only to lower levels of investment overall but also in some cases to the selection of riskier ventures with lower expected returns...

Case; economic consequences; naked capitalism; Naked CDS; speculative side bets.

Thu 2010-08-19 16:04 EDT

The AIG Bailout Scandal

William Greider

The government's $182 billion bailout of insurance giant AIG should be seen as the Rosetta Stone for understanding the financial crisis and its costly aftermath. The story of American International Group explains the larger catastrophe not because this was the biggest corporate bailout in history but because AIG's collapse and subsequent rescue involved nearly all the critical elements, including delusion and deception. These financial dealings are monstrously complicated, but this account focuses on something mere mortals can understand--moral confusion in high places, and the failure of governing institutions to fulfill their obligations to the public. Three governmental investigative bodies have now pored through the AIG wreckage and turned up disturbing facts--the House Committee on Oversight and Reform; the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, which will make its report at year's end; and the Congressional Oversight Panel (COP), which issued its report on AIG in June. The five-member COP, chaired by Harvard professor Elizabeth Warren, has produced the most devastating and comprehensive account so far. Unanimously adopted by its bipartisan members, it provides alarming insights that should be fodder for the larger debate many citizens long to hear--why Washington rushed to forgive the very interests that produced this mess, while innocent others were made to suffer the consequences. The Congressional panel's critique helps explain why bankers and their Washington allies do not want Elizabeth Warren to chair the new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau...

AIG bailout scandal.

Wed 2010-08-04 20:58 EDT

Knives Out for Elizabeth Warren >> naked capitalism

Yves Smith

It should come as no surprise that a financial services industry powerful enough to water down meaningful reform in the US and internationally (Basel III rules were weakened to allow, for instance, that mortgage servicing rights be included in regulatory capital calculations) would probably have its way in blocking the nomination of Elizabeth Warren as head of the new consumer finance protection agency. Let's face it: the plan to deep six the consumer watchdog was set when it was changed from being an independent body as originally proposed and instead moved into the Fed, the most bank friendly and arguably the least industry expert of the US bank regulators. It might have had a hope of being effective had it been housed at the FDIC, which does not like cleaning up bank messes and therefore is less prone to swallow industry BS than the other Federal bank overseers, but it is now clearly meant to be a mere election time talking point...

Elizabeth Warren; knives; naked capitalism.

New Deal 2.0 Sun 2010-07-25 16:20 EDT

Will Criminals Exploit Cap and Trade?

Marshall Auerback

...the carbon trading proposals embodied in the Obama Administration's cap and trade proposals are misguided. Money laundering is very easy when you have an opaque pricing structure with little in the way of regulatory protections. It's the environmental equivalent of credit default swaps. Worse, the cap and trade system doesn't work...Carbon Trading Schemes amount to nothing more than a privatization of the atmosphere...the criminals can have a field day...

0; Criminals Exploit Cap; new dealing 2; trading.

Sat 2010-07-24 16:13 EDT

Disequilibria: A Constant State Of Instability >> The Shadow Banking System

RueTheDay

What we saw from mid-2007 through early-2009 was a run on the shadow banking system. There were two primary channels by which the shadow banking system operated: the Money Market/Commercial Paper Channel and the Repo Channel...we have largely unregulated [money market funds (MMMFs)] taking deposits (largely withdrawable on demand and usually checkable) and making the equivalent of loans, in other words, acting as banks. Except that the MMMFs were not subject to much in the way of prudential regulation beyond some broad parameters that dictated what investments they could buy, did not have access to FDIC deposit insurance, and did not have lender of last resort access to the Fed's discount window. They were a disaster waiting to happen...Repos also became a very popular mechanism for raising funds in the pre-crisis days, with MMMFs becoming large buyers of repos (lenders) and the broker dealers becoming both buyers and sellers (borrowers and lenders)...during the crisis...the classic maturity mismatch situation...concerns about the quality of commercial paper...triggered by the collapse of Lehman...Without the traditional protection of deposit insurance and lender of last resort financing by the Fed, it turned into a full blown panic...Any meaningful financial reform must bring the shadow banking system out of the shadows. It must be treated as banking, and its institutions regulated as banks...

constant state; Disequilibria; instability; Shadow banks Systems.

New Deal 2.0 Sat 2010-07-24 15:59 EDT

The Trouble with Tim's Treasury

Marshall Auerback

...The Washington Post has reported that one of the major impacts of the FinReg bill passed last week by Congress is the accretion of new power to Obama's Treasury Secretary. According to the Post, Tim Geithner stands to inherit vast power to shape bank regulations, oversee financial markets and create a consumer protection agency...``The bill not only hews closely to the initial draft he released last summer but also anoints him -- as long as he remains Treasury secretary -- as the chief of a new council of senior regulators.'' ...

0; new dealing 2; Tim's Treasury; Troubles.

naked capitalism Mon 2010-07-19 17:02 EDT

Elizabeth Warren in Treasury Crosshairs Again, Geithner Opposes Her as Head of Consumer Financial Services Protection Agency

To say there is no love lost between Treasury and Elizabeth Warren is probably putting it mildly. Treasury was gunning for her ouster in early 2009...During the period when the COP was openly and effectively critical of the TARP, there was also a full court press in the media against Warren. Warren is the obvious choice to head the otherwise-guaranteed-to-be-a-joke consumer financial services agency due to set up its shingle at the Fed. She has been a tireless consumer advocate, is trusted and well liked by the public at large, an effective communicator and a respected legal scholar, and is willing to stare down political opponents. All those qualities make her hugely threatening. Banksters and their lobbyist allies have been saying loudly and clearly that they are firmly opposed to having Warren head the new consumer agency. So, predictably, Geithner acts as their water-carrier...this Administration...may actually see loss of the Democrat majority in the House as a win (as in is finding creative ways to rationalize its fallen standing as a possible longer-term advantage). First, it allows Team Obama to blame whatever happens (or fails to happen) on the Republicans. Second, it gives the Administration plenty of air cover to become more openly corporatist (recall Clinton's famed move to the right after the 1994 mid term debacle).

Consumer Financial Services Protection Agency; Elizabeth Warren; Geithner opposes; Head; naked capitalism; Treasury Crosshairs.

New Economic Perspectives Fri 2010-07-16 14:28 EDT

Goldman Vampire Squid Gets Bitch Slapped: JP Morgan Bitch Slaps the Dow; and Geithner Tries to Bitch Slap Elizabeth Warren

L. Randall Wray

Ok here were three pieces of news today. First, Goldman Sachs was fined $550 Million for duping customers...For Goldman it was a tiny slap on the wrist--it still controls the Obama administration, with its moles, Timmy Geithner and Larry Summers still in charge of fiscal policy, thus prepared to funnel whatever money is necessary to prop up their firm--and the fine amounts to just 14 days of Goldman's earnings...The other remaining investment bank, JP Morgan announced that its profits rose by 76%. Funny thing is that in all banking categories, JP Morgan's results were horrendous...the profits supposedly came from ``trading''. In reality they mostly came from reducing ``loan loss reserves''...Our favorite Timmy has weighed in on Elizabeth Warren...Timmy Geithner (let me repeat that: Timmy! Geithner!) the most incompetent and conflicted public official since ``heck-uv-a-job'' Brownie has dared to oppose Ms. Warren to lead the new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau...Actually I agree with Timmy. Elizabeth Warren ought to be gunning for Timmy's job. Fire Geithner. Now. Elizabeth Warren for Treasury Secretary! And in 2012, Warren for President...Time for a new face in the White House. Elizabeth is our man, or woman.

Bitch Slap Elizabeth Warren; bitch slaps; Dow; Geithner trying; Goldman Vampire squid; JP Morgan Bitch Slaps; New Economic Perspectives.

Thu 2010-06-03 17:42 EDT

World Order, Failed States and Terrorism, Part 3: The Business of Private Security

Henry C K Liu

...Social order is the main component of domestic security. Social security is the foundation of social order. Henry J Aaron of the Brookings Institution calls the US Social Security system "the great monument of 20th-century liberalism". Privatization of social security is not a solution; it is an oxymoron. It merely turns social security into private security. Neo-liberal economics theory promotes as scientific truth an ideology that is irrationally hostile to government responsibility for social programs. Based on that ideology, neo-liberal economists then construct a mechanical system of rationalization to dismantle government and its social programs in the name of efficiency through privatization. Privatization of social security is a road to government abdication, the cause of failed statehood...In the era of financial globalization, nations are faced with the problem of protecting their economies from financial threats. The recurring financial crises around the world in recent decades clearly demonstrated that most governments have failed in this critical state responsibility. The economic benefits associated with the unregulated transfer of financial assets, such as cash, stocks and bonds, across national borders are frequently not worth the risks, as has been amply demonstrated in many countries whose economies have been ravaged by external financial forces. Cross-border capital flows have become an increasingly significant part of the globalized economy over recent decades. The US depends on it to finance its huge and growing trade deficit. More than $2.5 trillion of capital flowed around the world in 2004, with more than $1 trillion flowing into just the US. Different types of capital flows, such as foreign direct investment, portfolio investment, and bank lending, are driven by different investor motivations and country characteristics, but one objective stands out more than any other: capital seeks highest return through lowest wages. The United States is not only losing jobs to lower-wage economies, the inflow of capital also forces stagnant US wages to fall in relation to rising asset values.

business; failed state; Part 3; private security; terror; World ordering.

naked capitalism Tue 2010-06-01 20:06 EDT

When Will Europe Have Its Wile E. Coyote Moment?

...The current program instead is ultimately about protecting Eurobanks from losses, and is destined to fail. John Mauldin, in his newsletters, has been featuring the work of Rob Parenteau, as featured first here on Naked Capitalism (and a source of much reader ire): that deleveraging the public sector and the private sector at the same time is impossible absent a big rise in exports. Pretty much every major economy is on a ``reduce government debt'' campaign. Many are also on a ``deleverage the private sector'' program too (which is warranted, given the amount of profligate lending that occurred). The problem, however, is that these states can't all increase exports, particularly to the degree sought...Rob Parenteau drew out the implications in an earlier post: ``...if households and businesses in the peripheral nations stubbornly defend their current net saving positions [continue to reduce debt levels], the attempt at fiscal retrenchment will be thwarted by a deflationary drop in nominal GDP. ''...This feels like 2007 all over again, with the authorities insistent that Things Will Be Fine, when a realistic assessment suggests the reverse.

Europe; naked capitalism; Wile E. Coyote Moment.

Tue 2010-06-01 14:35 EDT

World Order, Failed States, and Terrorism, Part 2: The privatization wave

Henry C K Liu

[Henry Liu considers privatization] ...privatization, a movement to abdicate government by declaring the people out of the government's protection and placing them at the mercy of the market, has since gathered much ideological support in the name of liberty...Ronald Reagan viewed government as an enemy of the people. Instead of allowing government to protect the weak from the strong, Reagan wanted to protect the strong from government...

failed state; Part 2; private wave; terror; World ordering.

naked capitalism Thu 2010-05-20 15:44 EDT

Germany's Short Selling Bans: Prudence, Populism or Bank Protection?

...Now why do the Germans in particular feel a tad nervous? Well, Germany, like the UK and Switzerland, has a banking system so large relative to its economy that it cannot credibly backstop it if it goes seriously off the rails. The problem is more acute in Germany because it does not control its own currency (as it cannot simply throw whatever it takes at the banks and if need be, ``print'' later; by contrast, the risk to the UK and Swiss banking system comes from its banks' foreign currency exposures)...The bailout plan shifted risk from the periphery to the core of Europe, and the core, upon examination, does not look too solid. Prepare yourself for a rough ride.

Banks Protected; Germany's short-selling ban; naked capitalism; population; prudence.

Electric Politics Mon 2010-03-22 14:06 EDT

False Consciousness

Werther

...Barry Lynn of the New America Foundation has written an interesting refutation of...an almost universal popular assumption in the United States that this country is much more entrepreneurial and individualistic than the purportedly lazy, pension-sponging socialists of Old Europe. Yet U.S. small business development is at the bottom of the heap of the OECD countries. Once again, our flattering self image is so wildly at variance with reality it verges on schizophrenia...Lynn argues that a key inflection point in government policy towards small business came in 1981, when the Reagan administration essentially stopped enforcing anti-monopoly and small business-protection statutes....

Electric Politics; false consciousness.

The Money Game Tue 2010-02-16 16:49 EST

Inflation Protected Bonds Murdered As PIMCO And BlackRock's Hyperinflation Fears Flounder

Investors are increasingly giving up on hyperinflation bets. For example, investors are willing to buy standard U.S. treasury bonds that pay just 3.69% yield. That doesn't leave room for much inflation...The niche market of Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS, bonds that adjust their yield to inflation) is giving up on its inflation concerns as well. As this market is too small for major central bank investment, it's far harder to argue away the lack of inflation it forecasts.

BlackRock's Hyperinflation Fears Flounder; Inflation Protected Bonds Murdered; Money game; PIMCO.

Jesse's Café Américain Wed 2010-02-03 20:13 EST

Italy Seizes Bank of America Assets In Derivatives Fraud Probe

Jesse

"more than 519 municipalities that face 990 million euros in derivatives losses"...Globalization is used as a rationale for stripping nations of their sovereign rights, and the people from their ability to rule and protect themselves in accord with their own beliefs and preferences...The US is a relative safe haven for multinational corporations that engage in various forms of fraud and market manipulation around the world, like modern day privateers. It appears unable to regulate them because of widespread political corruption and the self interest of its monied elite.

America assets; Derivatives Fraud Probe; Italy Seizes Bank; Jesse's Café Américain.

naked capitalism Fri 2009-12-18 09:43 EST

How to escape currency volatility and contagion in the globalized world of finance

Edward Harrison

The question I ask is this: now that finance is global and capital can move in and out of markets and countries on a dime, how can any country protect itself against the volatility of currency markets?

contagion; escape currency volatility; finance; globalizing world; naked capitalism.