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Fall Topic in The Credit Debacle Catalog

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zero hedge Mon 2009-10-26 09:28 EDT

How The Federal Reserve Bailed Out The World

The Bank of International Settlements [BIS] just released a major paper titled "The US dollar shortage in global banking and the international policy response" which goes on to demonstrate just how it happened that Fed chief Ben Bernanke in essence bailed out the entire developed world, which was facing an unprecedented dollar shortage crisis due to the sudden implosion of FX swap lines and other mechanisms which until that point were critical in maintaining the dollar funding shortfall for virtually every foreign Central Bank...When the financial system almost imploded in the fall of 2008, one of the primary responses by the Federal Reserve was the issuance of an unprecedented amount of FX liquidity lines in the form of swaps to foreign Central Banks. The number went from practically zero to a peak of $582 billion on December 10, 2008. The number of swaps outstanding was almost directly inversely correlated with the value of the dollar...what happened is that short-term sources to sustain the massive dollar funding mismatch disappeared virtually overnight, and CBs were suddenly facing a toxic spiral of selling increasingly more worthless assets merely to satisfy currency funding needs in an environment where all of a sudden nobody was willing to provide FX swap lines...had the Fed not stepped in, the rest of the world...would have simply collapsed as the $6.5 trillion dollar funding gap closed in on itself, causing a indiscriminate selling off of all dollar denominated assets. The implosion of the basis trade would have seemed like a picnic compared to what was about to ensue had the Fed not stepped in to perpetuate the Fiat banking way of life.

Federal Reserve bail; world; Zero Hedge.

naked capitalism Thu 2009-10-15 17:12 EDT

Hyperinflation, national bankruptcy, dollar crash and other exaggerations

Marc Faber, Martin Wolf... George Soros' comments on dollar weakness: ``The dollar is a very weak currency except all the others.'' Right now, there is no alternative to the dollar. Some people are fleeing U.S. assets if they can. But the alternatives are limited and this limits how far the dollar will fall. And this is unfortunate because the monetary system now in place is in need of change. Without it, we are likely to see nationalistic policy responses to economic weakness, which will induce conflict.

dollar crash; exaggerated; Hyperinflation; naked capitalism; nationalized bankruptcy.

Calculated Risk Mon 2009-10-12 09:56 EDT

More on Problems at the FHA and Quote of the Day

``I don't think it's a bad thing that the bad loans occurred. It was an effort to keep prices from falling too fast. That's a policy.'' Barney Frank, chairman of the House Financial Services Committee on recent FHA lending.The quote is from David Streitfeld and Louise Story's article in the NY Times: U.S. Mortgage Backer May Need Bailout, Experts Say

Calculated Risk; day; FHA; problem; quote.

naked capitalism Sun 2009-10-11 17:06 EDT

Asian Countries Intervene to Prop Up Greenback (Dollar Bind Edition)

An unannounced but evidently coordinated effort to arrest or at least slow the fall of the dollar is underway. The Financial Times indicated that Asian central banks were aggressive dollar buyers on Thursday, but the information came via currency traders rather than an official pronouncement. Thailand, Malaysia and Taiwan made substantial purchases; Hong Kong and Singapore also intervened today. The action may also have a secondary objective of rejiggering their currency values versus China's, since China repegged the renminbi against the dollar...

Asian Countries Intervene; Dollar Bind Edition; greenback; naked capitalism; prop.

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Thu 2009-09-17 09:47 EDT

Consumer Credit Contracts Record $21.6 Billion

U.S. Consumer Credit Falls by a Record $21.6 Billion. U.S. consumer credit plunged more than five times as much as forecast in July as banks restricted lending terms and job losses made Americans reluctant to borrow. Consumer credit fell by a record $21.6 billion, or 10 percent at an annual rate, to $2.5 trillion, according to a Federal Reserve report released today in Washington. Credit dropped by $15.5 billion in June, more than previously estimated. Credit fell for a sixth month, the longest series of declines since 1991.

21; 6; Consumer Credit Contracts Record; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis.

Thu 2009-09-17 09:31 EDT

Why capitalism fails - The Boston Globe

Mainstream economics rediscovers Hyman Minsky; ``Instability,'' he wrote, ``is an inherent and inescapable flaw of capitalism.''...Minsky drew his own, far darker, lessons from Keynes's landmark writings, which dealt not only with the problem of unemployment, but with money and banking...Minsky argued that Keynes's collective work amounted to a powerful argument that capitalism was by its very nature unstable and prone to collapse. Far from trending toward some magical state of equilibrium, capitalism would inevitably do the opposite. It would lurch over a cliff...Minsky spent the last years of his life, in the early 1990s, warning of the dangers of securitization and other forms of financial innovation, but few economists listened. Nor did they pay attention to consumers' and companies' growing dependence on debt, and the growing use of leverage within the financial system... Minsky...argued for a ``bubble-up'' approach, sending money to the poor and unskilled first. The government - or what he liked to call ``Big Government'' - should become the ``employer of last resort,'' he said, offering a job to anyone who wanted one at a set minimum wage. It would be paid to workers who would supply child care, clean streets, and provide services that would give taxpayers a visible return on their dollars. In being available to everyone, it would be even more ambitious than the New Deal, sharply reducing the welfare rolls by guaranteeing a job for anyone who was able to work. Such a program would not only help the poor and unskilled, he believed, but would put a floor beneath everyone else's wages too, preventing salaries of more skilled workers from falling too precipitously, and sending benefits up the socioeconomic ladder.

Boston Globe; Capitalism Failed.

Jesse's Café Américain Sun 2009-09-13 10:37 EDT

China Admonishes US Monetization, Sees a Hard Fall for the Dollar Over Time

The US Federal Reserve's policy of printing money to buy Treasury debt threatens to set off a serious decline of the dollar and compel China to redesign its foreign reserve policy, according to Cheng Siwei, a top member of the Communist hierarchy...The blowback on the US dollar will be significant. Dollar losing reserve currency status.

China admonished; Dollar; Hard Fall; Jesse's Café Américain; monetize; see; Time.

Bruce Krasting Fri 2009-09-04 19:11 EDT

Debt Repudiation -- On the Table

In the Week in Review section the NY Times had a piece by David Streitfeld titled ``When Debtors Decide to Default''. I thought it was an important story. The NY Times put the issue of Debt Repudiation on the table. Exactly where it belongs. The author also contributed a new adjective to describe many of America's troubled borrowers, ``Ruthless Defaulters''. This definition comes to us from the ``lending'' side of the equation. I think that is a misguided definition by the industry. I don't think they know what they are up against. Yet...Debt repudiation is the biggest systemic risk we face...the default rate on mortgages in excess of $500k is going to explode this fall...the CC numbers would follow. Broad based debt repudiation is a distinct possibility.

Bruce Krasting; Debt Repudiation; table.

naked capitalism Fri 2009-09-04 18:45 EDT

Stiglitz Doubts Recovery Can Be Sustained

Joseph Stiglitz takes issue with the view of economists (well, economists surveyed by Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal, which not surprisingly have a Pollyannish optimistic streak) that the economy is in or on the verge of a recovery. ``In most quarters, there is a feeling we should move away from the dollar system. The question is do we do it in an orderly way, or a chaotic way,'' Stiglitz said. ``The size of the deficit and the size of the balance sheet of the Fed have just increased the anxiety and the desire that something be done...'' Between the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of Lehman Brothers was ``the short period of American triumphalism, where we dominated the global scene. That period is over,'' Stiglitz said.

naked capitalism; Stiglitz Doubts Recovery; sustained.

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Sun 2009-08-30 12:03 EDT

Greater Than One in Four FDIC Insured Institutions are Unprofitable; Bank Problem List at 15 Year High

The second quarter 2009 Quarterly Banking Profile has some interesting charts and facts that inquiring minds will be interested in.Insured Institution Performance Higher Loss Provisions Lead to a $3.7 Billion Net LossMore Than One in Four Institutions Are UnprofitableCharge-Offs and Noncurrent Loans Continue to RiseNet Interest Margins Show Modest ImprovementIndustry Assets Decline by $238 BillionThe Industry Posts a Net Loss for the Quarter The Industry Posts a Net Loss for the Quarter Burdened by costs associated with rising levels of troubled loans and falling asset values, FDIC-insured commercial banks and savings institutions reported an aggregate net loss of $3.7 billion in the second quarter of 2009. Increased expenses for bad loans were chiefly responsible for the industry's loss. Insured institutions added $66.9 billion in loan-loss provisions to their reserves... ``Conventional wisdom regarding money supply suggests there is massive pent up inflation in the works as a result of the buildup of excess reserves...The reality is excessive debt and falling asset prices have rendered the best efforts of the Fed impotent. Banks are not well capitalized, they are insolvent, unwilling and unable to lend.''

15-year high; Bank problem listings; FDIC insured institutions; greater; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis; unprofitable.

The IRA Analyst Wed 2009-08-26 15:50 EDT

Washington Fiddles as Global Deflation Rages

The surprise facing Geithner, Bernanke et al is that by Q3, the true economic deterioration in many toxic assets will be clear for all to see. ``whatever relief that financial institutions and other residents of the hold-to-maturity world believe that they will receive through the modification of fair-value accounting and other official dispensation, they will lose through deteriorating economic fundamentals and falling cash flows supporting these assets as 2009 unfolds.''

Global Deflation Rages; IRA Analyst; Washington fiddles.

Fri 2009-07-24 00:00 EDT

naked capitalism: Chinese Exports Fall Nearly 23% in April

23; April; Chinese Exports Fall; naked capitalism.

Tue 2009-06-16 00:00 EDT

Calculated Risk: Using Corporate Bonds as an Economic Predictor

``model predicts industrial production will fall another 17% by the end of the year, and the economy will lose another 7.8 million jobs on top of the 5.1 million it has shed since the recession began''

Calculated Risk; Economic Predictor; Using Corporate Bonds.

Tue 2009-04-21 00:00 EDT

naked capitalism: China Trade Surplus Falls To 1/8 Prior Month Level

1/8 Prior Month Level; China Trade Surplus Falls; naked capitalism.

Tue 2009-04-21 00:00 EDT

Housing Crash Continues, Bubble Pops

It's Still A Terrible Time To Buy; Falling House Prices Are The Solution, Not The Problem

bubble pop; housing crash continues.

Fri 2009-04-10 00:00 EDT

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Empty Restaurants, Falling Rents, Abandoned Boats, and Collapsing Auction Sales

abandoned boats; Collapsing Auction Sales; Empty Restaurants; falling rents; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis.

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