Tue 2010-10-12 16:01 EDT

billy blog >> Blog Archive >> Iceland ... another neo-liberal casuality

...For a real world example of the benefits of adopting a floating, sovereign, currency we can look to Argentina....At the time of the 2001 crisis, the government realised it had to adopt a domestically-oriented growth strategy. One of the first policy initiatives taken by newly elected President Kirchner was a massive job creation program that guaranteed employment for poor heads of households. Within four months, the Plan Jefes y Jefas de Hogar (Head of Households Plan) had created jobs for 2 million participants which was around 13 per cent of the labour force. This not only helped to quell social unrest by providing income to Argentina's poorest families, but it also put the economy on the road to recovery. Conservative estimates of the multiplier effect of the increased spending by Jefes workers are that it added a boost of more than 2.5 per cent of GDP. In addition, the program provided needed services and new public infrastructure that encouraged additional private sector spending. Without the flexibility provided by a sovereign, floating, currency, the government would not have been able to promise such a job guarantee. Argentina demonstrated something that the World's financial masters didn't want anyone to know about. That a country with huge foreign debt obligations can default successfully and enjoy renewed fortune based on domestic employment growth strategies and more inclusive welfare policies without an IMF austerity program being needed. And then as growth resumes, renewed FDI floods in...sovereign governments are not necessarily at the hostage of global financial markets. They can steer a strong recovery path based on domestically-orientated policies -- such as the introduction of a Job Guarantee -- which directly benefit the population by insulating the most disadvantaged workers from the devastation that recession brings...

Billy Blog; blogs Archive; Iceland; neo-liberal casuality.

Credit Writedowns Sat 2010-05-22 20:55 EDT

MMT: Yes Virginia, There is a Difference Between Greece and the US

Marshall Auerback

...The cries of the deficit hawks grow louder: Repent all ye fiscal profligates, before the ``day of reckoning'' comes. Let's dial down the Biblical hysteria a wee bit while there's still time for rational debate. The market's recent response to the intensifying pressures in the euro zone suggests that investors are beginning to differentiate between countries that are sovereign issuers of currency, such as the US or Japan, and non-sovereign issuers, such as Greece or any other nations in the euro zone...That the US has the reserve currency is an irrelevant consideration here. The key distinction remains user vs. creator. The euro zone nations are part of the former; Canada, Australia, the UK, Japan and the US are representatives of the latter...Using ``PIIGS'' countries as analogues to the US or the UK, as Rogoff, Ferguson and countless other commentators do, is wrong. Their faulty analysis comes as a result of the deficit critics' failure to distinguish between the monetary arrangements of sovereign and non-sovereign nations. Any sovereign government (none within the EMU enjoy that status any longer) can deal with a collapse in revenue and an increase in outlays from a financial perspective without invoking the sort of deadlocks that are now crippling the EMU zone...Trying to engineer a reduction in the deficit via austerity programs (or freezes or whatever else one might like to call them) at a time when private spending is still insufficient to maintain adequate real GDP growth is a recipe for disaster. It will increase the deficit...

credit writedowns; different; Greece; MMT; Virginia.

Sun 2010-05-16 15:59 EDT

billy blog >> Blog Archive >> Doublethink

Yesterday I read an article by Noam Chomsky -- Rustbelt rage -- which documents the decline of the American dream and extends the malaise to Chinese workers. The hypothesis is that the workers in each country signed up for what they thought was a social contract where if they worked hard they would enjoy secure retirements. Then the meltdown undermines their jobs and they are forced to live on pitiful pensions. And while they watch the top-end-of-town enjoying the benefits of billions of bailout money from government the beneficiaries of these bailouts are leading the charge to take the pensions of the workers and turn them into ``financial products'' (privatised social security). This raises the concept of doublethink (a term coined by George Orwell) -- which ``means the power of holding two contradictory beliefs in one's mind simultaneously, and accepting both of them''...I see a lot of that in the mainstream economics debate...whatever suits their political agenda on any particular day. There is no consistency in their attacks -- they shift and slither and creep as facts get in the way.

Billy Blog; blogs Archive; Doublethink.

Fri 2010-03-19 20:42 EDT

Breaking the chain: The antitrust case against Wal-Mart

Barry C. Lynn (Harper's Magazine, July 2006)

...It is now twenty-five years since the Reagan Administration eviscerated America's century-long tradition of antitrust enforcement. For a generation, big firms have enjoyed almost complete license to use brute economic force to grow only bigger. And so today we find ourselves in a world dominated by immense global oligopolies that every day further limit the flexibility of our economy and our personal freedom within it...what should concern us today even more is a mirror image of monopoly called ``monopsony.'' Monopsony arises when a firm captures the ability to dictate price to its suppliers, because the suppliers have no real choice other than to deal with that buyer. Not all oligopolists rely on the exercise of monopsony, but a large and growing contingent of today's largest firms are built to do just that...today we have one of the best illustrations of monopsony pricing power in economic history: Wal-Mart...Wal-Mart has grown so powerful that it can turn even its largest suppliers, and entire oligopolized industries, into extensions of itself...the firm is also one of the world's most intrusive, jealous, fastidious micromanagers, and its aim is nothing less than to remake entirely how its suppliers do business, not least so that it can shift many of its own costs of doing business onto them. In addition to dictating what price its suppliers must accept, Wal-Mart also dictates how they package their products, how they ship those products, and how they gather and process information on the movement of those products...Rather than speed up the random motion and serendipitous collisions that have for so long propelled the American economy, Wal-Mart and other monopsonists are slowly freezing our economy into an ever more rigid crystal that holds each of us ever more tightly in place, and that every day is more liable to collapse from some sudden shock. To defend Wal-Mart for its low prices is to claim that the most perfect form of economic organization more closely resembles the Soviet Union in 1950 than twentieth-century America...

Antitrust case; break; chain; Wal-Mart.

naked capitalism Fri 2010-03-19 16:42 EDT

Indefensible Men

From the December 2009 issue of The Baffler (no online version of this article available). For those not familiar with The Baffler, this is the revival of a magazine of business and culture edited by Thomas Frank that had previously been published from 1988 to 2007. This issue was called ``Margin Call'' and included articles by Matt Taibbi, Naomi Klein, Michael Lind. I believe readers will find this piece to be relevant. Enjoy! Since inequalities of privilege are greater than could possibly be defended rationally, the intelligence of privileged groups is usually applied to the task of inventing specious proofs for the theory that universal values spring from, and that general interests are served by, the special privileges which they hold. Reinhold Niebuhr, Moral Man and Immoral Society

Indefensible Men; naked capitalism.

Calculated Risk Wed 2010-01-13 12:01 EST

HAMP Loan Modifications and the Fifth Amendment

CalculatedRisk

...The homedebtor enjoyed some initial success arguing a non-judicial foreclosure was a violation of due process...The homedebtors are named Huxtable and Agnew. Interestingly, Agnew is also listed as the "lead attorney" for the plaintiffs. The plaintiffs defaulted in late 2007, and the bank began a non-judicial foreclosure process in late 2008. The plaintiffs filed suit in federal court to stop the foreclosure, naming as defendants Timothy Geithner, the FHFA the lender and the servicer. The plaintiffs were allegedly denied a HAMP modification, and they claim the government and the bank violated the plaintiffs' right to "due process under the Fifth Amendment for failing to create rules implementing HAMP that comport with due process."...The judge refused to dismiss the case because the plaintiffs might be able to prove the government has "insinuated itself into a position of interdependence" with the bank.

amendment; Calculated Risk; HAMP Loan Modifications.

naked capitalism Fri 2009-11-20 09:42 EST

Einhorn: First, Let's Kill All the Credit Default Swaps

David Einhorn, who enjoys his considerable reputation for hard-fought battles against firms with shaky finances and dubious accounting (Alliance Capital and Lehman), has taken aim at a new and equally deserving target: credit default swaps...CDS are a means of extortion...CDS speculators win if companies die...a credit default swaps clearinghouse is not a viable solution...CDS serve the interests of the financial sector at the expense of the real economy...

Credit Default Swap; Einhorn; Let's Kill; naked capitalism.

Thu 2009-11-19 19:43 EST

Jesse's Café Américain: Willem Buiter Apparently Does Not LIke Gold, and Why Remains a Mystery

Dr. Willem Buiter of the London School of Economics, and advisor to the Bank of England, has written a somewhat astonishing broadsheet attacking of all things, gold. I have enjoyed his writing in the past. And although he does tend to cultivate and relish the aura of eccentric maverick, it is generally appealing, and his writing has been pertinent and reasoned, if unconventional. That is what makes this latest piece so unusual. It is a diatribe, more emotional than factual, with gaping holes in theoretical underpinnings and historical example.

Jesse's Café Américain; likely gold; mysteriously; remains; Willem Buiter Apparently.

zero hedge Thu 2009-11-19 10:42 EST

Fannie Mae Seriously Delinquent Rate Hockeysticks to 4.45% From 1.57% In Prior Year

The FNM "seriously delinquent" rate has gone parabolic, increasing by roughly 5% sequentially and just under 300% YoY. As mere text will simply not do this metric justice, please enjoy this chart of the dataset from Blytic. It tells you all you need to know about the Fed's containment of the housing problem. The August seriously delinquent single-family number comprised of a 2.87% non-credit enhanced delinquencies and a very bothersome 11.52%, consisting of credit enhanced loans. The deterioration of FNM's book however did not stop it from increasing the size of its book. In September Fannie's total book of business hit $3.242 trillion, up from $3.229 trillion in August and $3.079 trillion in the prior year.

1; 4; 45; 57; Fannie Mae Seriously Delinquent Rate Hockeysticks; prior years; Zero Hedge.

zero hedge Tue 2009-11-03 19:57 EST

Guest Post: Systemic Risk is All About Innovation and Incentives: Ed Kane

Edward J. Kane vi Chris Whalen

...we present the views of our friend and mentor Ed Kane of Boston College, who argues that the problem with the financial regulatory framework is not the law, regulation nor even the regulators, but rather the confluence of poorly aligned incentives and financial innovation... The financial crisis of 2007-2009 is the product of a regulation-induced short-cutting and near elimination of private counterparty incentives to perform adequate due diligence along the chain of transactions traversed in securitizing and re-securitizing risky loans (Kane, 2009a). The GLBA [Gramm-Leach-Bliley Financial Modernization Act of 1999] did make it easier for institutions to make themselves more difficult to fail and unwind. But it did not cause due-diligence incentives to break down in lending and securitization, nor did it cause borrowers and lenders to overleverage themselves. Still, the three phenomena share a common cause. Excessive risk-taking, regulation-induced innovation, and the lobbying pressure that led to the GLBA trace to subsidies to risk-taking that are protected by the political and economic challenges of monitoring and policing the safety-net consequences of regulation-induced innovation. These challenges and the limited liability that their stockholders and counterparties enjoy make it easy for clever managers of large institutions to extract implicit subsidies to leveraged risk-taking from national safety nets (Kane, 2009b)...To reduce the threat of future crises, the pressing task is not to rework bureaucratic patterns of financial regulation, but to repair defects in the incentive structure under which private and government supervisors manage a nation's financial safety net.

Ed Kane; Guest Post; incentives; innovation; systemic risk; Zero Hedge.

The Realignment Project Tue 2009-09-22 09:00 EDT

Public Virtues -- Part 3 (Institutional Continuity)

The Realignment Project

...all companies have to focus on the short-term. But the same is not true for the public sector....public institutions are not bound by the business cycle...government can act as the ultimate venture capitalist, making investments that might not pay off for decades to come, and it's a role that only the public sector can play...American governments at all levels have enjoyed huge success as extreme long-term venture capitalists in infrastructure and technology.

Institutional continues; Part 3; public virtues; Realignment Project.

Asia Times Online Sun 2009-09-13 10:25 EDT

THE BEAR'S LAIR : Possible October surprises

Martin Hutchinson

The inflation that might be expected in the United States from unprecedented expansionary monetary policies has failed to appear, while huge budget deficits have yet to produce higher interest rates. Far from being signs of a new economic paradigm, this merely means new bubbles are forming...Commodities and gold therefore are the destination of this year's hot money and are forming the new bubble...a fair-sized bubble has developed in the T-bond market...however...a modest resurgence in US inflation or difficulty in a long dated T-bond auction could cause confidence to flee the Treasury bond market and yields to leap uncontrollably upwards...the long-term costs of excessively cheap money are beginning to be seen in the US economy itself. By allowing money to remain so cheap for so long, and by running incessant payments deficits, the United States has surrendered the advantage of its superior long-established capital base, narrowing its capital cost advantage over emerging markets and exporting that capital to countries with less profligate approaches. Huge budget deficits, themselves worsening the trade deficit, merely export yet more US capital to the surplus nations. That makes it inevitable that the years ahead, in which the United States will no longer enjoy a capital advantage over its lower-wage competitors, will see highly unpleasant declines in US living standards.

Asia Times Online; BEAR'S LAIR; Possible October surprises.

zero hedge Thu 2009-09-03 09:59 EDT

Deep Thoughts From Leucadia

With Leucadia coming boldly from behind the shadows, where Ian Cumming and Joe Steinberg have always enjoyed operating, and joining Buffett in a deal over Capmark's loan-servicing and mortgage business, it makes sense to introduce readers with some of the very original thinking of the Leucadia founders (and very close friends of the mellifluously named Dick Handler). We present their most recent annual investor letter, which frequently is cited as among the best hedge fund (even though they don't like to be seen as one) strategy reading material. downloaded pdf.

Deep Thought; Leucadia; Zero Hedge.

zero hedge Thu 2009-09-03 09:59 EDT

Deep Thoughts From Leucadia

With Leucadia coming boldly from behind the shadows, where Ian Cumming and Joe Steinberg have always enjoyed operating, and joining Buffett in a deal over Capmark's loan-servicing and mortgage business, it makes sense to introduce readers with some of the very original thinking of the Leucadia founders (and very close friends of the mellifluously named Dick Handler). We present their most recent annual investor letter, which frequently is cited as among the best hedge fund (even though they don't like to be seen as one) strategy reading material. downloaded pdf.

Deep Thought; Leucadia; Zero Hedge.

zero hedge Tue 2009-09-01 19:43 EDT

Oil And Treasuries Paint A Divergent Inflation Picture, Yet Is It Even Relevant?

...bonds are reflecting a deflationary environment while commodities and stocks are betting on inflation...Yet...both stocks and bonds are potentially being manipulated to a point where they bear no reflection of the underlying assets, whose values they are purported to represent...is the debate about inflation versus deflation based on asset trends really relevant: a bizarro market dominated by animal spirits and intraday greed has ceased to indicate any long-term trends and our advice is to simply enjoy it for what it is - a ponzi casino...

Divergent Inflation Picture; Oil; relevant; Treasuries Paint; Zero Hedge.

Steve Keen's Debtwatch Sun 2009-08-30 20:48 EDT

Debtwatch No. 38: The GFC--Pothole or Mountain?

Cassander

``The Marxian view is that capitalistic economies are inherently unstable and that excessive accumulation of capital will lead to increasingly severe economic crises. Growth theory, which has proved to be empirically successful, says this is not true.'' wrote Economics Nobel Prize winner Edward C. Prescott. Prescott also claimed ``the Great Depression was a conscious choice by American workers to enjoy more leisure, in response to unspecified changes in the labour market'' Apparently debt played no role. The capitalistic economy is stable, and absent some change in technology or the rules of the economic game, the [...]

38; Debtwatch; GFC; Mountain; Potholes; Steve Keen's Debtwatch.

Fri 2008-01-04 00:00 EST

naked capitalism: "Business growth is not an end in itself"

"people could enjoy the fruits of technological progress with a mixture of increased leisure and a more congenial and relaxed working life"

business growth; ending; naked capitalism.

Mon 2007-10-08 00:00 EDT

Adam Smith - An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations - The Adam Smith Institute

(Book Five, Of the Revenue of the Sovereign or Commonwealth. Chapter III, Of Public Debts; "In great empires the people who live in the capital, and in the provinces remote from the scene of action, feel, many of them, scarce any inconveniency from the war; but enjoy, at their ease, the amusement of reading in the newspapers the exploits of their own fleets and armies."

Adam Smith; Adam Smith Institute; caused; inquiry; nation; natural; wealth.