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returns Topic in The Credit Debacle Catalog

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Jesse's Café Américain Sun 2009-09-20 11:07 EDT

Stock Market Rally: Shenanigans Abounding

...The US markets in general have every mark of a maturing Ponzi scheme...Bonds, stocks, metals, sugar, cocoa, and oil are all moving higher, while the dollar sinks. Is the dollar funding a new carry trade?...We remain guardedly 'optimistic' on the markets for next year ONLY because of the Fed's and Treasury's willingness to continue to debase the dollar to cover the massive unrealized losses in the banks' portfolios, even as they return to manipulating markets in business as usual. Inflation is good for financial assets, and we think another bubble is in the cards, at least for now given Obama's unwillingness to reform, unless some exogenous event or actor intervenes...

Jesse's Café Américain; Shenanigans Abounding; stock market rally.

The IRA Analyst Thu 2009-09-17 10:22 EDT

Back to Basis for Securitization and Structured Credit: Interview With Ann Rutledge

To get some further insight into the world of securitization and cash flows, we spoke last week to Ann Rutledge of RR Consulting...The difference between a futures contract for T-bonds and a credit default swap is that the former is a real contract for a real deliverable, whereas the CDS trades against what people think is the cash basis, but there is no cash market price to discipline and validate that derivative market. Rutledge: a contract or structure without a cash basis should not be allowed at all. You cannot have a derivative that is honest and fair to all market participants without a true cash basis. ...derivatives markets such as CDS and CDOs that have no cash basis tend to magnify speculative excesses, while derivative markets where there is a visible cash basis market to discipline investor behavior seem less unstable in terms of systemic risk. Rutledge: If the cash market were visible and could be examined by all participants, then it would give away the ability of the dealer banks to tax participants in the market and extract these abnormal returns. So how do we fix the problem... Rutledge: These originators play this game over and over again and they don't get caught, in part because we do not have a common, standardized set of definitions for governing the most basic aspects of the securitization process. The buyers don't do the work and the accounting framework is a counterparty-oriented framework, not one that is focused on the underlying assets. So banks like Countrywide and WaMu originated and sold some truly hideous structures during the bubble, but the buyers only diligence was reliance upon recourse to these banks. It costs maybe 50bp for a buyer to get the data and grind the numbers to really diligence a securitization based on cash flows, even a complex CDO. But the cost to the buyer and the system of not doing the diligence is an order or magnitude bigger. If the Congress, the SEC and the FASB, and the financial regulators only do one thing this year when it comes to reforming the world of structured credit, then it should be to impose by law and regulation common standards for the definitions used in the marketplace.

Ann Rutledge; basis; interview; IRA Analyst; securitizations; structured credit.

Thu 2009-09-17 09:31 EDT

Why capitalism fails - The Boston Globe

Mainstream economics rediscovers Hyman Minsky; ``Instability,'' he wrote, ``is an inherent and inescapable flaw of capitalism.''...Minsky drew his own, far darker, lessons from Keynes's landmark writings, which dealt not only with the problem of unemployment, but with money and banking...Minsky argued that Keynes's collective work amounted to a powerful argument that capitalism was by its very nature unstable and prone to collapse. Far from trending toward some magical state of equilibrium, capitalism would inevitably do the opposite. It would lurch over a cliff...Minsky spent the last years of his life, in the early 1990s, warning of the dangers of securitization and other forms of financial innovation, but few economists listened. Nor did they pay attention to consumers' and companies' growing dependence on debt, and the growing use of leverage within the financial system... Minsky...argued for a ``bubble-up'' approach, sending money to the poor and unskilled first. The government - or what he liked to call ``Big Government'' - should become the ``employer of last resort,'' he said, offering a job to anyone who wanted one at a set minimum wage. It would be paid to workers who would supply child care, clean streets, and provide services that would give taxpayers a visible return on their dollars. In being available to everyone, it would be even more ambitious than the New Deal, sharply reducing the welfare rolls by guaranteeing a job for anyone who was able to work. Such a program would not only help the poor and unskilled, he believed, but would put a floor beneath everyone else's wages too, preventing salaries of more skilled workers from falling too precipitously, and sending benefits up the socioeconomic ladder.

Boston Globe; Capitalism Failed.

naked capitalism Wed 2009-08-26 16:18 EDT

Guest Post: A Plunge in Foreign Net Capital Inflows Preceded the Break in US Financial Markets

Served by Jesse of Le Café Américain The peak of foreign capital inflows into the US was clearly seen in the second quarter of 2007, just before the crisis in the US that has rocked its banking system and driven it deeply into recession. Are the two events connected? Had the US become a Ponzi scheme that began to collapse when new investment began to wane, and the growth of returns could not be maintained? Watch the dollar and the Treasury and Agency Debt auctions for any further signs of capital flight, which is when those net inflows of foreign capital turn negative. And if for some reason the unlikely happens and it gains momentum, the dollar and bonds and stocks can all go lower in unison, and there...

break; financial market; Foreign Net Capital Inflows Preceded; Guest Post; naked capitalism; plunge.

Thu 2009-07-30 00:00 EDT

Second Vermont Republic

a nonviolent citizens' network and think tank opposed to the tyranny of Corporate America and the U.S. government, and committed to the peaceful return of Vermont to its status as an independent republic and more broadly the dissolution of the Union. Thomas H. Naylor

Vermont Republic.

Fri 2009-07-24 00:00 EDT

naked capitalism: Guest Post: Is Inflation Inevitable?

Van R. Hoisington and Lacy H. Hunt ``betting on inflation as a portfolio strategy will be as bad a bet in the next decade as it has been over the disinflationary period of the past twenty years when Treasury bonds produced a higher total return than common stocks''

Guest Post; inflation inevitably; naked capitalism.

Rick Bookstaber Thu 2009-04-02 00:00 EDT

Rick Bookstaber: Measuring the value-added of hedge funds

capital-weighted annualized returns measures hedge fund value-added; large hedges funds have on net lost money for their investors since inception

Hedge funds; measured; Rick Bookstaber; value-added.

Wed 2009-04-01 00:00 EDT

Pictured: The credit crunch tent city which has returned to haunt America

| Mail Online

credit crunch tent city; haunts America; Picture; returns.

Wed 2009-04-01 00:00 EDT

Jesse's Café Américain: Volcker's Vision of a Return to Narrow Banking

Jesse's Café Américain: Volcker's Vision of a Return to Narrow Banking

Jesse's Café Américain; narrow banking; returns; Volcker's Vision.

Tue 2009-01-06 00:00 EST

Jesse's Café Américain: US Treasuries and our Horribly Distorted International Currency Exchange Mechanism

Jesse's Café Américain: US Treasuries and our Horribly Distorted International Currency Exchange Mechanism; ``The key to recovery is the median real hourly wage, not the further expansion of credit and the perpetuation of an economic system based on an inefficient drag on economic growth by percentage-taking banks and rent-seeking elites who add little or no productive value.''; James Grant: Insight: Return-free risk

Horribly Distorted International Currency Exchange Mechanism; Jesse's Café Américain; Treasury.

Tue 2008-09-23 00:00 EDT

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis: Nationalization of AIG: Treasury to get 80% stake in return for $85 billion

80; 85; AIG; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis; nation; returns; stake; Treasury.

Tue 2008-09-09 00:00 EDT

FT.com | Willem Buiter's Maverecon | If it's broke, fix it - but how?

FT.com | Willem Buiter's Maverecon | If it's broke, fix it - but how? 2008-04-18; ``The worst outcome of the current financial crisis would be a return to the status quo ante that produced the pathologies, anomalies and contradictions that are its root causes.''

broke; com; Fix; FT; Willem Buiter's Maverecon.

Sun 2008-08-24 00:00 EDT

The return of global inflation

by Martin Hutchinson (Prudent Bear); "Almost all the world has abandoned proper anti-inflationary discipline and is destined to suffer a period of high inflation and recession in the coming years...Only a few countries like Brazil have taken the inflationary threat sufficiently seriously and will thus be in a position to continue expanding even while the rest of the world endures recession"

global inflation; returns.

Wed 2008-05-21 00:00 EDT

Winter (Economic & Market) Watch >> Berserker Funds in Commodities

Winter (Economic & Market) Watch >> Berserker Funds in Commodities; Michael Masters testifies on commodity speculation; "f investors (or whatever) held a stable currency with accurately rated (rather than bogus) investment grade financial instruments, with a positive real rate of return, against a truthful inflation number, would they be loaded to the gills with everything from grains to oil to cattle?"

Berserkers Funds; Commodities; economic; Market; watch; winter.

Thu 2008-04-17 00:00 EDT

naked capitalism: Why Companies Aren't Fighting Climate Change

energy conservation yields big returns

company; Fighting Climate Change; naked capitalism.

Mon 2008-01-07 00:00 EST

Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment: Minding the Hinges on Pandora's Box - January 7, 2008

"increasingly enthusiastic about the emerging 'dispersion' in valuations"; distinguish alpha, beta, risk free returns; alpha responsible for majority of the returns in the Strategic Growth Fund over time

2008; hinges; Hussman Funds; January 7; mind; Pandora's Box; weekly market comments.

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