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sustained Topic in The Credit Debacle Catalog

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zero hedge Mon 2009-10-26 09:28 EDT

How The Federal Reserve Bailed Out The World

The Bank of International Settlements [BIS] just released a major paper titled "The US dollar shortage in global banking and the international policy response" which goes on to demonstrate just how it happened that Fed chief Ben Bernanke in essence bailed out the entire developed world, which was facing an unprecedented dollar shortage crisis due to the sudden implosion of FX swap lines and other mechanisms which until that point were critical in maintaining the dollar funding shortfall for virtually every foreign Central Bank...When the financial system almost imploded in the fall of 2008, one of the primary responses by the Federal Reserve was the issuance of an unprecedented amount of FX liquidity lines in the form of swaps to foreign Central Banks. The number went from practically zero to a peak of $582 billion on December 10, 2008. The number of swaps outstanding was almost directly inversely correlated with the value of the dollar...what happened is that short-term sources to sustain the massive dollar funding mismatch disappeared virtually overnight, and CBs were suddenly facing a toxic spiral of selling increasingly more worthless assets merely to satisfy currency funding needs in an environment where all of a sudden nobody was willing to provide FX swap lines...had the Fed not stepped in, the rest of the world...would have simply collapsed as the $6.5 trillion dollar funding gap closed in on itself, causing a indiscriminate selling off of all dollar denominated assets. The implosion of the basis trade would have seemed like a picnic compared to what was about to ensue had the Fed not stepped in to perpetuate the Fiat banking way of life.

Federal Reserve bail; world; Zero Hedge.

The Big Picture Wed 2009-10-14 11:36 EDT

Andy Xie: Here We Go Again

Former Morgan Stanley Analyst Andy Xie explains why China is a potential bubble: [Consider] the US Savings and Loans crisis of the late 1980s and early 1990s. The US Federal Reserve kept monetary policy loose to help the banking system. The dollar went into a prolonged bear market. During the descent, Asian economies that pegged their currencies to the dollar could increase money supply and lending without worrying about devaluation, but the money couldn't leave home due to the dollar's poor outlook, so it went into asset markets. When the dollar began to rebound in 1996, Asian economies came under tightening pressure that burst their asset bubbles. The collapsing asset prices triggered capital outflows that reinforced asset deflation. Asset deflation destroyed their banking systems. In short, the US banking crisis created the environment for a credit boom in Asia. When US banks recovered, Asian banks collapsed. Is China heading down the same path? There are many anecdotes to support the comparison. Property prices in Southeast Asia became higher than those in the US, but ``experts'' and government officials had stories to explain it, even though their per capita income was one-tenth that of the US. Their banks also commanded huge market capitalizations, as financial markets extended their growth ad infinitum. The same thing is happening in China today. When something seems too good to be true, it is. World trade -- the engine of global growth -- has collapsed. Employment is still contracting throughout the world. There are no realistic scenarios for the global economy to regain high and sustainable growth. China is an export-driven economy. Bank lending can support the economy for a short time, however, stocks are as expensive as during the heydays of the last bubble. Like all previous bubbles, this one, too, will burst.

Andy Xie; Big Picture; Go.

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Mon 2009-10-12 09:22 EDT

One Hand Clapping Theory Analyzed

Numerous people have asked me to comment on Chris Martenson's article The Sound of One Hand Clapping - What Deflationists May Be Missing. Chris Writes: ...``Trillions in probable and provable losses quietly exist, out of sight, on the balance sheets of the Federal Reserve and other financial institutions. If they ever come out of hiding and onto the books, I think the deflationists will be proven correct beyond all doubt. But let me ask this: What prevents the authorities from simply storing them out of sight forever?...I am now wondering if they cannot keep this up indefinitely.'' ...In a credit based economy, the odds of a sustainable rebound without bank credit expanding, and consumers participating is not very good. Even if one mistakenly assumes that the recent rally is a result of pretending, should we count on sustained success now more so than a measurement of stock prices in April of 1930, or any of Japans' four 50% rallies? I think not. Pretending cannot accomplish much other than prolonging the agony for decades. This is the message of Japan. Moreover, the US is arguably is worse shape than Japan because our problems are unsustainable consumer debt, high unemployment, and massive retail sector overcapacity. Those are structural problems that no amount of pretending in the world can possibly cure. In due time, the market will focus on those problems.

hand clapping theory analyzed; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis.

The IRA Analyst Mon 2009-09-21 17:23 EDT

Exposure at Default: As Banks Shrink, So Does the Economy

...before Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and the other G-20 finance ministers set about to raise capital levels, they need to understand that the earnings of the banking industry are going to be impaired for years as the cost of resolving failed banks is repaid. Restoring solvency is the first issue for many banks, then we can talk about increased capital and restrictions on risk taking equally. And as the banking industry shrinks defensively in order to conserve capital and fund liabilities impaired by realized losses, the credit available to the US economy also shrinks. You can't have economic growth without credit growth...Bottom line is that deflation is still the chief threat to the US economy, driven by a relentless contraction in bank and nonbank credit. Until we see a restoration of the market for nonbank finance and a sustained turn in the EAD of the large bank peer group, which accounts for almost 70% of the entire US industry balance sheet, we do not believe that any economic recovery will be meaningful in terms of jobs or asset prices.

Banks Shrink; default; economy; exposure; IRA Analyst.

Minyanville Sun 2009-09-20 11:17 EDT

Our Marionette Economy

This morning in the Wall Street Journal Wells Fargo CEO John Stumpf is quoted saying ``If it's not a government program it's basically not getting done.'' While Stumpf's comment was targeted to the mortgage market and associated with a plea for Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) to raise their size limits so as to be able to pick up more jumbo mortgages I believe he nailed the current state of our economy: ``If it's not a government program it's basically not getting done.''...But to me, there's a fundamental flaw to the notion that the government can create a sustainable economic recovery...I kept coming back to a comment from Bennet Sedacca: ``They (the government) can make 'em bounce, but they can't make 'em fly.''

Marionette Economy; Minyanville.

Jesse's Café Américain Sun 2009-09-13 12:28 EDT

H&S Top and "Iron Cross" on Weekly Dollar Chart Targets 66

The weekly chart on the US Dollar Index has rather awful technicals, as it has dropped to a recent low, and set the 'iron cross' in the moving averages that is generally the hallmark of a sustained decline...The ultimate objective of this formation remains 66. It is difficult to square this with a technical outlook that includes a major decline in the US equity indices, since the pairs have been running inversely, that is, dollar down, and stocks up.

H; Iron Cross; Jesse's Café Américain; s Top; Weekly Dollar Chart Targets 66.

Jesse's Café Américain Fri 2009-09-04 18:58 EDT

Stiglitz on the Financial Crisis

Joe Stiglitz describes the current financial crisis and prospective recovery quite well, and the conclusions he draws are remarkably similar to our own which is gratifying. It's good to hear these things from a distinguished Nobel laureate, and not just from your humble Propriétaire, while puttering over his daily bread. Bloomberg Stiglitz Says U.S. Economic Recovery May Not Be `Sustainable' By Michael McKee Sept. 4 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy faces a ``significant chance'' of contracting again after emerging from its worst recession since the 1930s, Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz said. ``It's not clear that the U.S. is recovering in a sustainable way,'' Stiglitz, a Columbia University professor, told reporters yesterday in New York.

Financial Crisis; Jesse's Café Américain; Stiglitz.

naked capitalism Fri 2009-09-04 18:45 EDT

Stiglitz Doubts Recovery Can Be Sustained

Joseph Stiglitz takes issue with the view of economists (well, economists surveyed by Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal, which not surprisingly have a Pollyannish optimistic streak) that the economy is in or on the verge of a recovery. ``In most quarters, there is a feeling we should move away from the dollar system. The question is do we do it in an orderly way, or a chaotic way,'' Stiglitz said. ``The size of the deficit and the size of the balance sheet of the Fed have just increased the anxiety and the desire that something be done...'' Between the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of Lehman Brothers was ``the short period of American triumphalism, where we dominated the global scene. That period is over,'' Stiglitz said.

naked capitalism; Stiglitz Doubts Recovery; sustained.

Thu 2009-01-15 00:00 EST

naked capitalism: Guest Post: "If You Can't Tell Who The Sucker Is...."

by Cassandra Does Tokyo; normalcy; ``what we've seen in leverage and credit growth during the past 15 years is NOT normal, nor is it sustainable - neither relative to history or in absolute terms.''

Guest Post; naked capitalism; suckers; tells.

Sun 2008-11-23 00:00 EST

Winter (Economic & Market) Watch >> Observation on the Crack Up Boom Crash

Winter (Economic & Market) Watch >> Observation on the Crack Up Boom Crash; ``a Mad Max speculative boom created false demand, and now there is a Panic liquidation...the pieces will be picked up, and more sustainable, balanced and less speculative growth will be maintained.''

Boom Crash; crack; economic; Market; Observations; watch; winter.

Tue 2008-09-23 00:00 EDT

The Perilous Price of Oil - The New York Review of Books

The Perilous Price of Oil, by George Soros - The New York Review of Books; ``prices in financial markets do not necessarily tend toward equilibrium...There is a two-way, reflexive interplay between biased market perceptions and the fundamentals, and that interplay can carry markets far from equilibrium. Every sequence of boom and bust, or bubble, begins with some fundamental change, such as the spread of the Internet, and is followed by a misinterpretation of the new trend in prices that results from the change. Initially that misinterpretation reinforces both the trend and the misinterpretation itself; but eventually the gap between reality and the market's interpretation of reality becomes too wide to be sustainable.''

books; New York Review; Oil; Perilous Price.

Tue 2008-09-02 00:00 EDT

naked capitalism: Stephen Roach: "Pitfalls in a Post Bubble World"

``root of our collective mess is sustained US overconsumption''

naked capitalism; pitfall; Post Bubble World; Stephen Roach.

Sun 2008-07-06 00:00 EDT

Jesse's Café Américain: Lessons from the Panic of 1907

Jesse's Café Américain: Lessons from the Panic of 1907: "almost all panics and crashes are preceded by sustained periods of artificial growth, not based on improvements in productivity, but by a false expansion in the money system, aided and abetted by speculators and financiers." "almost all panics and crashes involves relatively small groups of people who seem to be at the heart of the matter, and are closely interlinked into small cartels of corrupted self-dealing, involving the accumulation of enormous personal fortunes." "always the overextension of credit and excessive leverage" "A free and just society is not a prize to be won or a gift that can be bestowed; it is a recurring commitment, an enduring obligation."

1907; Jesse's Café Américain; Lessons; panic.

Thu 2008-07-03 00:00 EDT

Faustian economics:

Hell hath no limits--By Wendell Berry (Harper's Magazine); "Our true religion is a sort of autistic industrialism"; "our 'identity' is located not in the impulse of selfhood but in deliberately maintained connections"; "in the phrase 'free market,' the word 'free' has come to mean unlimited economic power for some, with the necessary consequence of economic powerlessness for others"; "we confuse limits with confinement...our human and earthly limits, properly understood, are not confinements but rather inducements to formal elaboration and elegance, to _fullness_ of relationship and meaning"; "we want to make our economic landscapes sustainably and abundantly productive, we must do so by maintaining in them a living formal complexity something like that of natural ecosystems. We can do this only by raising to the highest level our mastery of the arts of agriculture, animal husbandry, forestry, and, ultimately, the art of living."

Faustian economics.

Thu 2008-05-29 00:00 EDT

Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment: A Clue from Contango - May 27, 2008

commodity bubble unlikely to be sustained

2008; 27; Clues; Contango; Hussman Funds; weekly market comments.

Sun 2007-12-02 00:00 EST

Speech, Bernanke --Deflation-- November 21, 2002

Deflation: Making Sure "It" Doesn't Happen Here; remarks by Governor Ben S. Bernanke, 2002-11-21; policy responses available to cure deflation; "Sustained deflation can be highly destructive...and should be strongly resisted"; Helicopter Ben orgin

2002; Bernanke; deflation; November 21; speech.

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