The Big Picture Sun 2009-10-11 16:08 EDT

Kaptur & Johnson on Bill Moyers

Former International Monetary Fund chief economist Simon Johnson and US Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-OH) report on the state of the economy... MARCY KAPTUR: Think about what these banks have done. They have taken very imprudent behavior, irresponsible. They have really gambled, all right? And in many cases, been involved in fraudulent activity. And then when they lost, they shifted their losses to the taxpayer. So, if you look at an instrumentality like the F.H.A., the Federal Housing Administration. They used to insure one of every 50 mortgages in the country. Now it's one out of four. MARCY KAPTUR: Because what they're doing is they're taking their mistakes and they're dumping them on the taxpayer. So, you and I, and the long term debt of our country and our children and grandchildren. It's all at risk because of their behavior. We aren't reigning them in. The laws of Congress passed last year in terms of housing, were hollow. ... SIMON JOHNSON: And Rahm Emanuel, the President's Chief of Staff has a saying. He's widely known for saying, `Never let a good crisis go to waste'. Well, the crisis is over, Bill. The crisis in the financial sector, not for people who own homes, but the crisis for the big banks is substantially over. And it was completely wasted. The Administration refused to break the power of the big banks, when they had the opportunity, earlier this year. And the regulatory reforms they are now pursuing will turn out to be, in my opinion, and I do follow this day to day, you know. These reforms will turn out to be essentially meaningless.

Big Picture; Bill Moyers; Johnson; Kaptur.

Willem Buiter's Maverecon Sat 2009-10-10 14:00 EDT

Expect little and you may yet be disappointed

Willem Buiter

...the most disappointing development this year was the performance of president Barack Obama and his administration - and my expectations were modest to begin with...On the fiscal side, Barack Obama is presiding over the biggest peace-time government deficits and public debt build-up ever. According to my back-of-the-envelope calculations there is about a 10 percent of GDP gap between the medium and longer-term spending plans of the Obama administration and the taxes the Congress is willing and able to impose. The reality that you cannot run a West-European welfare state (with decent quality health care, decent pre-school, primary and secondary school education for all), rebuild America's crumbling infrastructure, invest in the environment and fulfill your post-imperial global strategic ambitions while raising 33 percent of GDP in taxes, has not yet dawned on the Obama administration or on the American people at large...Clearly, the qualities one needs to get elected to high office in western democracies are not qualities that are likely to be helpful once you have achieved high office and are expected to govern and lead. To survive the selection process to become president you have to be able to stitch together a coalition of special interests that can provide sufficient financial and sweat equity resources to win this grueling race to the top. Once you get there, you should shed the unfortunate baggage you accumulated on your way up and govern in the interest of all the people. Few can do that. Apparently Obama is not one of them.

disappointment; expectations; Willem Buiter's Maverecon.

The Economic Populist - Speak Your Mind 2 Cents at a Time Sat 2009-10-10 13:14 EDT

Unofficial Economic Policy: Re-Inflate the Bubble

...the Administration and the Democratically-controlled congress are dead set on re-inflating the housing bubble. There are two proposals at play: 1) extending the first-time homebuyer tax credit and 2) Increasing the loan limit amounts for Fannie, Freddie and FHA.

bubble; economic populist; Mind 2 Cents; re-inflate; speaking; Time; Unofficial Economic Policy.

naked capitalism Sun 2009-09-20 09:48 EDT

Guest Post: ``Assessing the Recent Performance of the Fed''

Richard Alford, former economist at the New York Fed

...the current Fed: 1) actively promoted the asset bubbles which precipitated the most costly business downturn since the Great depression; 2) passively sat by ignoring its regulatory and supervisory responsibilities allowing the growth of imbalances that led to the worst business downturn since the Great depression...the economic and financial imbalances that built up between 2000 and 2007 will generate the opportunity costs in terms of lost output and idle and misallocated resources that will exceed the costs inherent in the economic and financial imbalances reflected in the most expensive anti-inflation fight ever fought by the Fed (1980-1983). The US financial system remains on life support. Furthermore, the Fed has played a part in allocating credit and in engineering redistributions of wealth on a scale that is likely to on the same scale as the redistribution of wealth from the household sector to government during the inflation ridden 1970s. The independence of the Fed has been compromised. Many in the Congress want to audit the Fed and limit its ability to make loans in future emergencies. The Fed is seen by many as an agency of the Treasury.

assessment; Fed; Guest Post; naked capitalism; recent perform.

The IRA Analyst Thu 2009-09-17 10:22 EDT

Back to Basis for Securitization and Structured Credit: Interview With Ann Rutledge

To get some further insight into the world of securitization and cash flows, we spoke last week to Ann Rutledge of RR Consulting...The difference between a futures contract for T-bonds and a credit default swap is that the former is a real contract for a real deliverable, whereas the CDS trades against what people think is the cash basis, but there is no cash market price to discipline and validate that derivative market. Rutledge: a contract or structure without a cash basis should not be allowed at all. You cannot have a derivative that is honest and fair to all market participants without a true cash basis. ...derivatives markets such as CDS and CDOs that have no cash basis tend to magnify speculative excesses, while derivative markets where there is a visible cash basis market to discipline investor behavior seem less unstable in terms of systemic risk. Rutledge: If the cash market were visible and could be examined by all participants, then it would give away the ability of the dealer banks to tax participants in the market and extract these abnormal returns. So how do we fix the problem... Rutledge: These originators play this game over and over again and they don't get caught, in part because we do not have a common, standardized set of definitions for governing the most basic aspects of the securitization process. The buyers don't do the work and the accounting framework is a counterparty-oriented framework, not one that is focused on the underlying assets. So banks like Countrywide and WaMu originated and sold some truly hideous structures during the bubble, but the buyers only diligence was reliance upon recourse to these banks. It costs maybe 50bp for a buyer to get the data and grind the numbers to really diligence a securitization based on cash flows, even a complex CDO. But the cost to the buyer and the system of not doing the diligence is an order or magnitude bigger. If the Congress, the SEC and the FASB, and the financial regulators only do one thing this year when it comes to reforming the world of structured credit, then it should be to impose by law and regulation common standards for the definitions used in the marketplace.

Ann Rutledge; basis; interview; IRA Analyst; securitizations; structured credit.

Jesse's Café Américain Sun 2009-08-30 11:59 EDT

US Equity Markets Look Dangerously Wobbly As Insiders Sell In Record Numbers

Jesse

"Investors Intelligence's latest survey of advisory services showed an impressive 51% bullish and a meager 19% bearish...the spread hasn't been that wide since November 2007." Alan Abelson, Barrons, Aug. 29, 2009Next week we move into September, the riskiest month of the year for financial markets, with the federals escalating preparations for a flu pandemic, while Congress considers legislation... ``selling by corporate insiders in August has surged to $6.1 billion, the highest amount since May 2008. The ratio of insider selling to insider buying hit 30.6, the highest level since TrimTabs began tracking the data in 2004.''

Equity Markets Look Dangerously Wobbly; Insider sell; Jesse's Café Américain; record number.

The Big Picture Wed 2009-08-26 16:02 EDT

Hoenig: Let Big U.S. Banks Fail

Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig, the host for the annual Jackson Hole Fed confab, is utterly against bailouts, and thinks ``Too Big To Fail'' is a losing strategy. As I noted previously, ``Real capitalists nationalize; faux capitalists look for the free lunch.'' Bernanke has urged Congress to back part of Hoenig's proposal for dealing with faltering [...]

Big Picture; Hoenig; Let Big U.S. Banks Fail.

Jesse's Café Américain Thu 2009-08-20 16:46 EDT

The Next Wave of the Financial Crisis Is Coming (And Why)

Jesse

These excerpts from the most recent TARP Congressional Oversight Panel Report make the risks in the US financial system abundantly clear.Do you think that the Congress has the will and the ability to act on their recommendation, with the men currently in positions of power on the key Committees? Do you believe that the Obama Administration is capable of reforming itself and effecting genuine

comes; Financial Crisis; Jesse's Café Américain; wave.

Jesse's Café Américain Thu 2009-08-20 16:44 EDT

The Next Wave of the Financial Crisis Is Coming (And Why)

Jesse

These excerpts from the most recent TARP Congressional Oversight Panel Report make the risks in the US financial system abundantly clear.Do you think that the Congress has the will and the ability to act on their recommendation, with the men currently in positions of power on the key Committees? Do you believe that the Obama Administration is capable of reforming itself and effecting genuine

comes; Financial Crisis; Jesse's Café Américain; wave.

Jesse's Café Américain Thu 2009-08-20 16:42 EDT

The Next Wave of the Financial Crisis Is Coming (And Why)

Jesse

These excerpts from the most recent TARP Congressional Oversight Panel Report make the risks in the US financial system abundantly clear.Do you think that the Congress has the will and the ability to act on their recommendation, with the men currently in positions of power on the key Committees? Do you believe that the Obama Administration is capable of reforming itself and effecting genuine

comes; Financial Crisis; Jesse's Café Américain; wave.

Jesse's Café Américain Thu 2009-08-20 16:36 EDT

The Next Wave of the Financial Crisis Is Coming (And Why)

Jesse

These excerpts from the most recent TARP Congressional Oversight Panel Report make the risks in the US financial system abundantly clear.Do you think that the Congress has the will and the ability to act on their recommendation, with the men currently in positions of power on the key Committees? Do you believe that the Obama Administration is capable of reforming itself and effecting genuine

comes; Financial Crisis; Jesse's Café Américain; wave.

Jesse's Café Américain Thu 2009-08-20 16:35 EDT

The Next Wave of the Financial Crisis Is Coming (And Why)

Jesse

These excerpts from the most recent TARP Congressional Oversight Panel Report make the risks in the US financial system abundantly clear.Do you think that the Congress has the will and the ability to act on their recommendation, with the men currently in positions of power on the key Committees? Do you believe that the Obama Administration is capable of reforming itself and effecting genuine

comes; Financial Crisis; Jesse's Café Américain; wave.

Jesse's Café Américain Thu 2009-08-20 16:34 EDT

The Next Wave of the Financial Crisis Is Coming (And Why)

Jesse

These excerpts from the most recent TARP Congressional Oversight Panel Report make the risks in the US financial system abundantly clear.Do you think that the Congress has the will and the ability to act on their recommendation, with the men currently in positions of power on the key Committees? Do you believe that the Obama Administration is capable of reforming itself and effecting genuine

comes; Financial Crisis; Jesse's Café Américain; wave.

Jesse's Café Américain Thu 2009-08-20 16:29 EDT

The Next Wave of the Financial Crisis Is Coming (And Why)

Jesse

These excerpts from the most recent TARP Congressional Oversight Panel Report make the risks in the US financial system abundantly clear.Do you think that the Congress has the will and the ability to act on their recommendation, with the men currently in positions of power on the key Committees? Do you believe that the Obama Administration is capable of reforming itself and effecting genuine

comes; Financial Crisis; Jesse's Café Américain; wave.

Jesse's Café Américain Thu 2009-08-20 16:26 EDT

The Next Wave of the Financial Crisis Is Coming (And Why)

Jesse

These excerpts from the most recent TARP Congressional Oversight Panel Report make the risks in the US financial system abundantly clear.Do you think that the Congress has the will and the ability to act on their recommendation, with the men currently in positions of power on the key Committees? Do you believe that the Obama Administration is capable of reforming itself and effecting genuine

comes; Financial Crisis; Jesse's Café Américain; wave.

Jesse's Café Américain Thu 2009-08-20 16:25 EDT

The Next Wave of the Financial Crisis Is Coming (And Why)

Jesse

These excerpts from the most recent TARP Congressional Oversight Panel Report make the risks in the US financial system abundantly clear.Do you think that the Congress has the will and the ability to act on their recommendation, with the men currently in positions of power on the key Committees? Do you believe that the Obama Administration is capable of reforming itself and effecting genuine

comes; Financial Crisis; Jesse's Café Américain; wave.