zero hedge - on a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero Fri 2010-07-23 11:01 EDT

Charting The Second Half Economic Slowdown

Goldman's Jan Hatzius...summarizes all the adverse trends that continue to not be priced into stocks. He notes that while the inventory cycle has boosted growth, this artificial rise is now losing steam. Key headwinds facing the economy are that fiscal policy, which has been expansionary, has now become to restrictive; that there has been no overshoot in layoffs for a mean reversion expectation; that the labor market multiplier is very much limited; that while capital spending is just modestly above replacement levels, the large output gap suggests spending should be subdued; the housing overhang is still huge and house prices have further to fall; that there are risks to US from European crisis; that inflation is dropping (and non-existent) even as utilization is low everywhere, which creates a major deflation risk; that the scary budget deficit will destroy any hope for future fiscal stimulus as public debt is surging out of control; lastly, with Taylor-implied Fed rates expected to be negative, the Fed's monetary policy arsenal is non-existent...

chart; dropped; economic slowdown; long; survival rate; Timeline; zero; Zero Hedge.

naked capitalism Mon 2010-07-19 17:07 EDT

Is the SEC Settlement Really a Win for Goldman?

Tom Adams and Yves Smith

...Conventional wisdom in the financial media is that the settlement announced by the SEC over its lawsuit on a Goldman 2007 Abacus CDO is a home run for Goldman. But a closer reading suggests that Goldman's victory is qualified, and the enthusiastic press response is in large measure due to the firm's skillful manipulation of perceptions...it is hard to see how anything in the settlement, if affirmed, would be negative for private parties considering lawsuits against sellers of CDOs...we imagine potential CDO investors will be mightily encouraged that Goldman ended up returning the full amount of investment to the one true third party investor in the deal -- IKB...An investor considering bringing an action against a bank that sold them a CDO that failed (meaning virtually all 2006 and 2007 ``mezzanine'' CDOs) would probably be encouraged that a bank was required to pay such a large amount for making inaccurate statements about the true nature of the CDO...Plaintiffs who sue CDO sellers have good reason to be optimistic...The settlement thus tarnishes the popular myth that the subprime shorts were insightful outsiders who executed ``the greatest trade ever''...the SEC has demonstrated that investors in such a CDO can win a recovery as a result of such inaccurate statements.

Goldman; naked capitalism; SEC Settlement Really; Wins.

New Economic Perspectives Fri 2010-07-16 14:28 EDT

Goldman Vampire Squid Gets Bitch Slapped: JP Morgan Bitch Slaps the Dow; and Geithner Tries to Bitch Slap Elizabeth Warren

L. Randall Wray

Ok here were three pieces of news today. First, Goldman Sachs was fined $550 Million for duping customers...For Goldman it was a tiny slap on the wrist--it still controls the Obama administration, with its moles, Timmy Geithner and Larry Summers still in charge of fiscal policy, thus prepared to funnel whatever money is necessary to prop up their firm--and the fine amounts to just 14 days of Goldman's earnings...The other remaining investment bank, JP Morgan announced that its profits rose by 76%. Funny thing is that in all banking categories, JP Morgan's results were horrendous...the profits supposedly came from ``trading''. In reality they mostly came from reducing ``loan loss reserves''...Our favorite Timmy has weighed in on Elizabeth Warren...Timmy Geithner (let me repeat that: Timmy! Geithner!) the most incompetent and conflicted public official since ``heck-uv-a-job'' Brownie has dared to oppose Ms. Warren to lead the new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau...Actually I agree with Timmy. Elizabeth Warren ought to be gunning for Timmy's job. Fire Geithner. Now. Elizabeth Warren for Treasury Secretary! And in 2012, Warren for President...Time for a new face in the White House. Elizabeth is our man, or woman.

Bitch Slap Elizabeth Warren; bitch slaps; Dow; Geithner trying; Goldman Vampire squid; JP Morgan Bitch Slaps; New Economic Perspectives.

zero hedge Wed 2010-05-19 11:37 EDT

Guest Post: Goldman's CDOs Had Nothing to Do With the Real Estate Bubble

David Fiderer

If Goldman Sachs wanted to reduce its exposure to subprime mortgage investments, why didn't it simply sell the assets it owned? Two reasons: First, those large sales would have sent a signal that something was terribly, terribly wrong, and thereby pushed prices down further. That's how supply and demand normally works. Second, Goldman professed to be market maker, which uses its trading book to instill confidence. It ostensibly bought, sold and inventoried mortgage securities to provide stability and liquidity to the marketplace. Of course, we now know that such market confidence was entirely misplaced. To sidestep these issues, Goldman and other major banks found a solution that subverted the laws of supply and demand, and escaped the price discovery of a transparent marketplace. They fabricated synthetic CDOs, such as Abacus 2007 AC-1. These toxic assets, invented out of thin air, made the meltdown worse than it otherwise would have been...

Goldman's CDOs; Guest Post; real estate bubble; Zero Hedge.

zero hedge Sun 2010-05-09 09:15 EDT

Where Was Goldman's Supplementary Liquidity Provider Team Yesterday? A Recap Of Goldman's Program Trading Monopoly

In addition to having said many things about HFT in general in the last year, over the past 12 months Zero Hedge has focused a lot of attention specifically on Goldman's dominance of the NYSE's Program Trading platform, where in addition to recent entrant GETCO, it has been to date an explicit monopolist of the so-called Supplementary Liquidity Provider program, a role which affords the company greater liquidity rebates for, well providing liquidity (more on this below), and generating who knows what other possible front market-looking, flow-prop integration (presumably legal) benefits. Yesterday, Goldman's SLP function was non-existent. One wonders - was the Goldman SLP team in fact liquidity taking, or to put it bluntly, among the main reasons for the market collapse...Readers are welcome to go back through our archives and acquaint themselves with the NYSE's SLP program, with Goldman's domination of program trading, with Goldman's domination of dark trading venues via the Sigma X suite, with Goldman's domination of flow trading via Redi X, and with Goldman's domination of virtually every vertical of the capital markets, which would be terrific if monopolies were encouraged in the US...We have long claimed that Goldman is the de facto monopolist of the NYSE's program trading platform. As such, it is certainly the case that Goldman was instrumental in either a) precipitating yesterday's crash or b) not providing the critical liquidity which it is required to do, when the time came...

Goldman's Program Trading Monopoly; Goldman's Supplementary Liquidity Provider Team; Recap; Zero Hedge.

Sun 2010-02-07 10:10 EST

Web of Debt - THE BATTLE OF THE TITANS: JPMORGAN VS. GOLDMAN SACHS

Ellen Brown

The late Libertarian economist Murray Rothbard wrote that U.S. politics since 1900, when William Jennings Bryan narrowly lost the presidency, has been a struggle between two competing banking giants, the Morgans and the Rockefellers. The parties would sometimes change hands, but the puppeteers pulling the strings were always one of these two big-money players...In 2000, the Rockefellers and the Morgans joined forces, when JPMorgan and Chase Manhattan merged to become JPMorgan Chase Co. Today the battling banking titans are JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, an investment bank that gained notoriety for its speculative practices in the 1920s...Goldman's superpower status comes from something more than just access to the money spigots of the banking system. It actually has the ability to manipulate markets...But Goldman Sachs has been caught in this blatant market manipulation so often that the JPMorgan faction of the banking empire has finally had enough.

battle; debt; Goldman Sachs; JPMorgan; titans; Web.

zero hedge Wed 2010-02-03 20:00 EST

AIG: Collusion Of Epic Proportions Between Goldman's US Treasury Branch And Goldman Sachs Proper

David Fiderer

Must read piece from David Fiderer, first published on Huffington Post How Paulson's People Colluded With Goldman To Destroy AIG And Get A Backdoor Bailout

AIG; collusion; epic proportions; Goldman Sachs Proper; Goldman's; Treasury Branch; Zero Hedge.

naked capitalism Sun 2010-01-03 10:58 EST

On Goldman's (and Now Morgan Stanley's) Deceptive Synthetic CDO Practices (aka Screwing Their Customers)

Goldman is trying to diffuse the increasingly harsh light being turned on its dubious practices in the collateralized debt obligation market, with the wattage turned up considerably last week by a story in the New York Times that described how a synthetic CDO program called Abacus was the means by which Goldman famously went ``net short'' subprime....Goldman wanted its Abacus trades to fail. That was the most profitable course of action for them (note the Times clearly states that that was the role of the Abacus trades and Goldman has not disputed that claim). They were net short, this was no mere hedge of a long position but a trading bet. And those CDOs did turn out to be big turkeys...

aka Screwing; customer; Deceptive Synthetic CDO Practices; Goldman's; Morgan Stanley's; naked capitalism.

Jesse's Café Américain Thu 2009-11-19 10:48 EST

Tavakoli on Goldman's Lies of Omission

Jesse

Janet Tavakoli asks, Did Goldman Lie? One is tempted to ask, 'were their lips moving?' But why the bluff? Why did Goldman have to pretend it was not concerned at all about AIG, even as the phone records show they were involved in intense and continuing discussions at the highest levels in the bailouts, with a unique and privileged presence in discussions with the government and the Fed in which their own man was the Chairman of the NY Fed. And as someone asked, Why pick on Goldman? Well, they seem to be at the center of everything.

Goldman's Lies; Jesse's Café Américain; omission; Tavakoli.

Thu 2009-11-19 10:26 EST

How Goldman secretly bet on the U.S. housing crash | McClatchy

Greg Gordon

In 2006 and 2007, Goldman Sachs Group peddled more than $40 billion in securities backed by at least 200,000 risky home mortgages, but never told the buyers it was secretly betting that a sharp drop in U.S. housing prices would send the value of those securities plummeting. Goldman's sales and its clandestine wagers, completed at the brink of the housing market meltdown, enabled the nation's premier investment bank to pass most of its potential losses to others before a flood of mortgage defaults staggered the U.S. and global economies. Only later did investors discover that what Goldman had promoted as triple-A rated investments were closer to junk...

Goldman Secretly Bet; McClatchy; U.S. housing crash.

Thu 2009-11-19 10:26 EST

Goldman left foreign investors holding the subprime bag | McClatchy

Greg Gordon

Goldman sold more than $57 billion in risky mortgage-backed securities during a 14-month period in 2006 and 2007, including nearly $39 billion issued from mortgages it purchased. Meanwhile, the firm peddled billions of dollars in complex deals, many of them tied to subprime mortgages, in the Caymans and other offshore locations...Goldman's traders also made huge bets that those securities would lose value by buying insurance-like contracts, called credit-default swaps, with private parties. Beginning early in 2007, they bought swaps on a London-based exchange.

Goldman left foreign investors holding; McClatchy; subprime bag.

zero hedge Tue 2009-10-27 11:25 EDT

The Manhattan Project: Did Bernanke Use The Monetary Nuclear Option?

Geoffrey Batt

...was the Fed's policy response on March 18, 2009 the financial equivalent of Fat Man and Little Boy? (The direct purchase of equities?)...did the Fed exceed its policy statement by directly buying assets not contemplated therein?...Did Bernanke, encouraged by Goldman's Hatzius, heed his own advice and monetize the equity markets?

Bernanke used; Manhattan Project; Monetary Nuclear Option; Zero Hedge.

zero hedge Mon 2009-10-12 10:13 EDT

Overview Of Goldman Sachs Electronic Trading: Part 1

Zero Hedge is starting a multi-part overview of Goldman Sachs' Electronic Trading client-focused product suite, to demonstrate just how extensively embedded in modern market architecture are Goldman's various DMA and "liquidity" facilitation schemes, and the depths of dark pool domination via Goldman's global order router, and other specific topical offerings.

Goldman Sachs Electronic Trading; overview; Part 1; Zero Hedge.

zero hedge Tue 2009-09-22 16:22 EDT

Top Goldman Lobbyist Barred From Communicating With House's Financial Services Committee

In a rare example of testicular fortitude, Barney Frank has "banished" Goldman's Michael Pease from communicating with the U.S. House of Representatives Financial Services Committee. According to Reuters, the Goldmanite, and former committee staffer, has been "asked" not to interfere with the Congressional panel for a period of 12 months. According to Barney Frank aide Steven Adamske: "Mr. Paese left our offices in September 2008, and was not allowed to communicate with any committee members or staff for a period of one year due to normal ethics restrictions that apply to all House and Senate employees. Out of an abundance of caution due to the nature of financial regulation reform, the chairman has extended Mr. Paese's recusal for another year." Pease "was the committee's deputy staff director before he quit to work for the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association as a lobbyist. Goldman hired him in April.

communications; House's Financial Services Committee; Top Goldman Lobbyist Barred; Zero Hedge.

Zero Hedge Wed 2009-08-26 15:52 EDT

The Goldman VaR Exemption Question Escalates

Tyler Durden

It seems only yesterday that Zero Hedge had some questions in regard to Goldman's VaR Fed exemption. No response was received from 85 Broad. Today it appears several Congressmen, lead by Alan Grayson, are willing to drive a sharp stick pretty deep into the hornets' nest, by sending a letter directly to Wall Street Don Ben Bernanke, demanding an explanation exactly to the question of Goldman's VaR Exemption. Posted 2009-07-27.

Goldman VaR Exemption Question Escalates; Zero Hedge.

Tue 2009-06-16 00:00 EDT

Don't Bank on It - Barrons.com

Don't Bank on It, by Alan Abelson - Barrons.com; Goldman's missing month

bank; Barrons; com.

Sun 2008-11-23 00:00 EST

Goldman's Backdoor Bailout : CJR:

Goldman's Backdoor Bailout, by Dean Starkman, CJR; A call for transparency in the taxpayer rescue of Wall Street

CJR; Goldman's Backdoor Bailout.