naked capitalism Sun 2010-10-10 13:23 EDT

Jim Quinn: Consumer Deleveraging = Commercial Real Estate Collapse

...Retailers expanding into an oversaturated retail market in the midst of a Depression, when anyone without rose colored glasses can see that Americans must dramatically cut back, are committing a fatal mistake. The hubris of these CEOs will lead to the destruction of their companies and the loss of millions of jobs. They will receive their fat bonuses and stock options right up until the day they are shown the door. All of the happy talk from the Wall Street Journal, CNBC and the other mainstream media about commercial real estate bottoming out is a load of bull... there is absolutely no chance that commercial real estate has bottomed. There are years of pain, writeoffs and bankruptcies to go...

Commercial Real Estate Collapse; Consumer deleveraging; Jim Quinn; naked capitalism.

Sat 2010-09-25 11:02 EDT

Where is the World Economy Headed?

Michael Hudson

...financial maneuvering and debt leverage play the role that military conquest did in times past. Its aim is still to control land, basic infrastructure and the economic surplus -- and also to gain control of national savings, commercial banking and central bank policy...Indebted ``host economies'' are in a similar position to that of defeated countries. Their economic surplus is transferred abroad financially, while locally, debtors lose sovereignty over their own financial, economic and tax policy. Public infrastructure is sold off to foreign buyers, on credit and therefore paying interest and fees that are expensed as tax-deductible and paid to foreigners. The Washington Consensus applauds this pro-rentier policy. Its neoliberal ideology holds that the most efficient path to wealth is to shift economic planning out of the hands of government into those of bankers and money managers in charge of privatizing and financializing the economy. Almost without anyone noticing, this view is replacing the classical law of nations based on the idea of sovereignty over debt and financial policy, tariff and tax policy...Bankers in the North look upon any economic surplus -- real estate rent, corporate cash flow or even the government's taxing power or ability to sell off public enterprises -- as a source of revenue to pay interest on debts...The original liberals -- from Adam Smith and the Physiocrats through John Stuart Mill and even Winston Churchill -- urged that the tax system be based on the economic rent of land so as to keep down the price of housing (and hence labor's cost of living). The Progressive Era followed this principle by aiming to keep natural monopolies such as transportation, communication and even banks (or at least, free credit creation) in the public domain. But the post-1980 world has encouraged private owners to buy them on credit and extract economic rent, thereby shifting the tax burden onto labor, industry and agriculture -- while concentrating wealth, first on credit and then via the enormous recent public bailouts of this failed financial debt pyramiding and deregulation...At issue is the concept of free markets. Are they to be free from monopoly and special privilege, or free for the occupying financial invaders and speculators?...

World Economy Headed.

Christopher Whalen Sat 2010-09-25 09:52 EDT

Double dip or global deflation?

Christopher Whalen

...Let's start with the term ``recession,'' which itself reflects the assumption that economic growth is always positive and the trend line is always upward sloping. While many economists in the U.S. remain convinced that this is an accurate descriptor, what Americans and many other people of the world need to consider is whether the assumption that the economy will grow endlessly is reasonable...much of what Americans think was real growth supported by real income and real work was, in fact, the result of deficit spending and reckless monetary expansion by the Fed, first under Alan Greenspan and now Ben Bernake...some of the leading experts in the housing sector believe that the U.S. is less than 25% through the restructuring of defaulted loans on commercial and residential real estate, and that the backlog is growing...Just as the housing sector and the related debt was the driver of the U.S. economy over the past several decades, I believe that the deflation of the housing market could spell an equally drastic period of shrinkage in economic activity in the U.S. and around the world...

Christopher Whalen; double dip; Global deflation.

naked capitalism Fri 2010-09-17 18:52 EDT

Why Do We Keep Indulging the Fiction That Banks Are Private Enterprises?

... Big finance has an unlimited credit line with governments around the globe. ``Most subsidized industry in the world'' is inadequate to describe this relationship. Banks are now in the permanent role of looters, as described in the classic Akerlof/Romer paper. They run highly leveraged operations, extract compensation based on questionable accounting and officially-subsidized risk-taking, and dump their losses on the public at large...The usual narrative, ``privatized gains and socialized losses'' is insufficient to describe the dynamic at work. The banking industry falsely depicts markets, and by extension, its incumbents as a bastion of capitalism. The blatant manipulations of the equity markets shows that financial activity, which used to be recognized as valuable because it supported commercial activity, is whenever possible being subverted to industry rent-seeking. And worse, these activities are state supported...banks can no longer meaningfully be called private enterprises, yet no one in the media will challenge this fiction...

bank; fiction; Keep Indulging; naked capitalism; private enterprise.

zero hedge - on a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero Thu 2010-08-19 16:25 EDT

Commercial Real Estate Lobby Ask For Taxpayer Aid To Help Recapitalize Banks Saddled With Billions In Underwater CRE Loans

The problem that nobody is talking about, yet everyone continues keeping a close eye on, namely the trillions in commercial real estate under water, is quietly starting to reemerge. In the attached letter from the Commercial Real Estate lobby, it reminds politicians that the hundreds of billions in loans that mature in the next several years won't roll on their own, and we see the first inkling of the lobby asking congress for much more taxpayer aid, in this case in the form of Shelley Berkley's proposed legislation...

billions; Commercial Real Estate Lobby Ask; dropped; Help Recapitalize Banks Saddled; long; survival rate; taxpayer aid; Timeline; Underwater CRE Loans; zero; Zero Hedge.

Satyajit Das's Blog - Fear & Loathing in Financial Products Thu 2010-08-19 16:16 EDT

Grecian Derivative

Satyajit Das

...In the 1990s, Japanese companies and investors pioneered the use of derivatives to hide losses...Since then, the use of derivatives to disguise debt and arbitrage regulations and accounting rules has increased...Italy used a currency swap against an existing Yen 200 billion bond ($1.6 billion) to lock in profits from the depreciation of the Yen. The swap was done at off-market rates...the swap was really a loan where Italy had accepted an off-market unfavourable exchange rate and received cash in return...A key element of the recent Greek debt problems has been the use of derivative transactions to disguise the true level of its borrowing...More recently, similar structures have emerged in Latvia...This follows a series of revelation regrading the use of derivatives by municipal authorities in the U.S., Italy, German, Austria and France where complex bets on interest rates were used to provide funding or cosmetically lower borrowing costs. Many of these transactions resulted in substantial losses and are now in dispute...Normal commercial transactions can be readily disguised using derivatives exacerbating risks and reducing market transparency. Current proposals to regulate derivatives do not focus on this issue...

fears; financial products; Grecian Derivative; loath; Satyajit Das's Blog.

Sat 2010-08-07 20:18 EDT

Wall Street's Big Win | Rolling Stone Politics

Matt Taibbi

...Obama and the Democrats boasted that the bill is the "toughest financial reform since the ones we created in the aftermath of the Great Depression" -- a claim that would maybe be more impressive if Congress had passed any financial reforms since the Great Depression, or at least any that didn't specifically involve radically undoing the Depression-era laws...What it was, ultimately, was a cop-out, a Band-Aid on a severed artery. If it marks the end of anything at all, it represents the end of the best opportunity we had to do something real about the criminal hijacking of America's financial-services industry. During the yearlong legislative battle that forged this bill, Congress took a long, hard look at the shape of the modern American economy -- and then decided that it didn't have the stones to wipe out our country's one --dependably thriving profit center: theft...Dodd-Frank was never going to be a meaningful reform unless these two fateful Clinton-era laws -- commercial banks gambling with taxpayer money, and unregulated derivatives being traded in the dark -- were reversed...Republican and Democratic leaders were working together with industry insiders and deep-pocketed lobbyists to prevent rogue members like Merkley and Levin from effecting real change...Geithner acted almost like a liaison to the financial industry, pushing for Wall Street-friendly changes on everything...Without the Volcker rule and the --Lincoln rule, the final version of finance reform is like treating the opportunistic symptoms of AIDS without taking on the virus itself. In a sense, the failure of Congress to treat the disease is a tacit admission that it has no strategy for our economy going forward that doesn't involve continually inflating and reinflating speculative bubbles...

Rolling Stone political; Wall Street's Big Win.

naked capitalism Wed 2010-08-04 20:59 EDT

Getting Ugly on the Commercial Real Estate Front

It wasn't all that long ago that the media and banking industry commentators would worry about the coming train wreck in commercial real estate. But peculiarly, that topic has more or less receded from view...But as predicted, the decay in the commercial real estate loans continues at an impressive pace...

commercial real estate front; naked capitalism; ugly.

Sat 2010-07-24 16:13 EDT

Disequilibria: A Constant State Of Instability >> The Shadow Banking System

RueTheDay

What we saw from mid-2007 through early-2009 was a run on the shadow banking system. There were two primary channels by which the shadow banking system operated: the Money Market/Commercial Paper Channel and the Repo Channel...we have largely unregulated [money market funds (MMMFs)] taking deposits (largely withdrawable on demand and usually checkable) and making the equivalent of loans, in other words, acting as banks. Except that the MMMFs were not subject to much in the way of prudential regulation beyond some broad parameters that dictated what investments they could buy, did not have access to FDIC deposit insurance, and did not have lender of last resort access to the Fed's discount window. They were a disaster waiting to happen...Repos also became a very popular mechanism for raising funds in the pre-crisis days, with MMMFs becoming large buyers of repos (lenders) and the broker dealers becoming both buyers and sellers (borrowers and lenders)...during the crisis...the classic maturity mismatch situation...concerns about the quality of commercial paper...triggered by the collapse of Lehman...Without the traditional protection of deposit insurance and lender of last resort financing by the Fed, it turned into a full blown panic...Any meaningful financial reform must bring the shadow banking system out of the shadows. It must be treated as banking, and its institutions regulated as banks...

constant state; Disequilibria; instability; Shadow banks Systems.

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Fri 2010-07-16 18:59 EDT

Expect Second-Half Housing and Durable Goods Crash

Michael Shedlock

Those who think manufacturing is going to lead the way to a sustainable recovery need to think again. Data suggest durable goods sales are about to collapse...if consumers are not going to be buying appliances (or cars according recent surveys), and if commercial real estate is going to remain in the dumps, technology spending is likely unsustainable, and states will be laying off workers to balance budgets, pray tell where is the second half growth or jobs coming from? Here's a hint: Don't expect miracles from further stimulus either. The current Congress is not much in the mood and the next Congress is likely to be downright hostile to significantly more deficit spending. All things considered, earnings estimates and the stock market are both priced well beyond perfection, as are forward GDP estimates.

Durable Goods Crash; expectations; Housing; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis.

Tue 2010-06-01 16:23 EDT

billy blog >> Blog Archive >> In the spirit of debate ...

Bill Mitchell

Readers of my blog often ask me about how modern monetary theory sits with the views of the debt-deflationists (and specifically my academic colleague Steve Keen). Steve and I have collaborated in the last few days to foster some debate between us on a constructive level with the aim of demonstrating that the common enemy is mainstream macroeconomics and that progressive thinkers should target that school of thought rather than looking within...hopefully, this initiative will broaden the debate and bring more people up to speed on where the real enemy of full employment lies...The modern monetary system is characterised by a floating exchange rate (so monetary policy is freed from the need to defend foreign exchange reserves) and the monopoly provision of fiat currency. The monopolist is the national government. Most countries now operate monetary systems that have these characteristics...the monetary unit defined by the government has no intrinsic worth...The viability of the fiat currency is ensured by the fact that it is the only unit which is acceptable for payment of taxes and other financial demands of the government.The analogy that mainstream macroeconomics draws between private household budgets and the national government budget is thus false. Households, the users of the currency, must finance their spending prior to the fact. However, government, as the issuer of the currency, must spend first (credit private bank accounts) before it can subsequently tax (debit private accounts)... Taxation acts to withdraw spending power from the private sector but does not provide any extra financial capacity for public spending...As a matter of national accounting, the federal government deficit (surplus) equals the non-government surplus (deficit). In aggregate, there can be no net savings of financial assets of the non-government sector without cumulative government deficit spending...contrary to mainstream economic rhetoric, the systematic pursuit of government budget surpluses is necessarily manifested as systematic declines in private sector savings...Unemployment occurs when net government spending is too low. As a matter of accounting, for aggregate output to be sold, total spending must equal total income (whether actual income generated in production is fully spent or not each period). Involuntary unemployment is idle labour unable to find a buyer at the current money wage. In the absence of government spending, unemployment arises when the private sector, in aggregate, desires to spend less of the monetary unit of account than it earns. Nominal (or real) wage cuts per se do not clear the labour market, unless they somehow eliminate the private sector desire to net save and increase spending. Thus, unemployment occurs when net government spending is too low to accommodate the need to pay taxes and the desire to net save...Unlike the mainstream rhetoric, insolvency is never an issue with deficits. The only danger with fiscal policy is inflation which would arise if the government pushed nominal spending growth above the real capacity of the economy to absorb it...government debt functions as interest rate support via the maintenance of desired reserve levels in the commercial banking system and not as a source of funds to finance government spending...there is no intrinsic reason for...

Billy Blog; blogs Archive; Debate; Spirit.

THE PRAGMATIC CAPITALIST Wed 2010-02-10 11:22 EST

AN INSIDER'S VIEW OF THE REAL ESTATE TRAIN WRECK

TPC

The first time I spoke with real estate entrepreneur Andy Miller was in late 2007, when I asked him to serve on the faculty of a Casey Research Summit...what most intrigued me about Andy was that he had been almost alone among his peer group in foreseeing the coming end of the real estate bubble, and in liquidating essentially all of his considerable portfolio of projects near the top...he remains deeply concerned about the outlook for real estate...the United States home mortgage market has been nationalized without anybody noticing...If government support goes away, and it will go away, where will that leave the home market? It leaves you with a catastrophe...eventually the bond market is going to gag on the government-sponsored paper...commercial properties are not performing and that values have gone down, although I've got to tell you, the denial is still widespread, particularly in the United States and on the part of lenders sitting on and servicing all these real estate portfolios...The current volume of defaults is already alarming. And the volume of commercial real estate defaults is growing every month...When you hit that breaking point, unless there's some alternative in place, it's going to be a very hideous picture for the bond market and the banking system...second quarter 2010 is a guess...the FDIC and the Treasury Department have decided that rather than see 1,000 or 2,000 banks go under and then create another RTC to sift through all the bad assets, they'll let the banking system warehouse the bad assets. Their plan is to leave the assets in place, and then, when the market changes, let the banks deal with them. Now, that's horribly destructive...it's exactly a Japanese-style solution...The entire U.S. residential mortgage market has in effect been nationalized, but there wasn't any act of Congress, no screaming and shouting, no headlines in the Wall Street Journal or the New York Times...That's a template for what they could do with the commercial loan market.

insider's view; pragmatic capitalists; Real Estate Train Wreck.

Jesse's Café Américain Fri 2010-01-29 16:27 EST

Morgan Paying Out 62% of Revenues in Bonuses and Pay While Average Families Face 'Years of Pain'

Jesse

One has to wonder how much of that 'revenue' is merely the result of artificial mark to market accounting and prop desk speculation, and not real cash flow from commercial banking operations.That is not the pay method for a bank. That's a hedge fund. And that would be all very well and good if they were a hedge fund and responsible for their own failures and successes, but they are obtaining the discount window and federal guarantees and subsidies from the taxpayers as though they were a commercial bank...if the bankers keep taking 50+% of all the cash that touches their hands from the public subsidy, then what trickles down to the people won't accomplish anything. Years of zombie-like stagflation look to be the prognosis...The economic hitmen and the corrupt politicians are taking their pay, and the people and their children and most likely grandchildren will be stuck with unpayable debts. Just like a third world nation, which is what the US will look like when they get done cutting health, infrastructure, education, and basic services to pay for this.

62; Average Families Face; bonus; Jesse's Café Américain; Morgan pay; pain; pay; Revenues; years.

naked capitalism Fri 2010-01-29 16:22 EST

Fed Secrecy Claims Bogus, Redacted AIG Bailout Details Already Public

...The SEC agreed to let AIG keep Maiden Lane III information secret until 2018, since it ``qualifies as confidential commercial or financial information.'' ...this argument is worthless. Nearly all of the deleted information can be reassembled from sources that are publicly available...An examination of our data raises troubling questions about how the Fed is valuing the Maiden Lane III assets.

Fed Secrecy Claims Bogus; naked capitalism; public; Redacted AIG Bailout Details.

Credit Writedowns Tue 2010-01-05 19:27 EST

The collapse of commercial real estate

The long-coming commercial real estate bust has arrived in the U.S. and elsewhere, a result of sky-high prices met by a severe downturn. Prices could only work in a best-case economic scenario and large busts are now coming (see my posts on Stuyvesant Town and Capmark Financial).

Collapse; commercial real estate; credit writedowns.

zero hedge Mon 2009-12-28 22:26 EST

Moody's CMBS Delinquency Tracker Hits Decade High

Yes, yes, everyone knows commercial real estate is a neutron bomb waiting to go off, and while many are yapping, nobody is doing jack. The Fed will deal with that implosion, the expectation goes, just as tidily as it dealt with the last bubble implosion...Delinquency increased 37 basis points in October, as measured by the Moody's Delinquency Tracker (DQT). The delinquency rate now stands at 4.01%, more than six times the rate seen at the same time last year. The rate has increased over 375 basis points from the low reached in July 2007, with further increases anticipated.

Moody's CMBS Delinquency Tracker Hits Decade High; Zero Hedge.

zero hedge Sun 2009-11-29 12:33 EST

Fed's Bull Dudley Explains Bank Runs, Discusses Collateral Risks, Suggests Way To Prevent Systemic Collapse

An impressively comprehensive presentation by Bill Dudley before the Center for Economic Policy Studies Symposium earlier, discusses, and ties in, all the key concepts Zero Hedge has been discussing over the past several months, among these the tri-party repo system, bank runs (what and why), collateral, moral hazard, maturity mismatch, unsecured markets, Primary Dealer Credit Facility, Commercial Paper Funding Facility, and liquidity. In fact, at some points in the speech we get the feeling Mr. Dudley is indirectly refuting some of Zero Hedge's recent allegations vis-a-vis the Fed's actions and regulatory oversight. The presentation is largely devoid of bias except for some of the proposals on how to avoid future systemic meltdowns, which of course are moral hazard prevention lite and philosophy heavy.

Discusses Collateral Risks; Fed's Bull Dudley Explains Bank Runs; Prevent Systemic Collapse; suggested way; Zero Hedge.

zero hedge Wed 2009-11-25 10:10 EST

Shadow Banking Topology

A new paper by the IMF provides much needed insights into the nature of Asset Backed Commercial Paper (ABCP) conduits, which amounted to $1.2 trillion in June 2007, a subset of the broader Commercial Paper shadow asset class (which as Bill Dudley discussed a week ago, hit a peak of $2.3 trillion), and the product's role in funding imbalances (and maturity mismatch) at global banks courtesy of the shadow banking system. However, the most useful observation of the paper's addenda include insights into the global shadow banking system's holdings, as well as its changing composition over time, the collapse of the ABS securitization market whose reincarnation via TALF is critical for preventing the CRE market's implosion in 2012, and lastly a comprehensive overview of the entire shadow banking system...

Shadow Banking Topology; Zero Hedge.

naked capitalism Fri 2009-10-23 09:20 EDT

Paul Volcker, Mervyn King, Glass Steagall, and the Real TBTF Problem

Paul Volcker wants to roll the clock back and restore Glass Steagall, the 1933 rule that separated commercial banking from investment banking, but Team Obama is politely ignoring him. Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank of England, is giving a more strident version of the same message...I think Volcker is wrong, but not for reasons one might expect...The problem is that we have had a thirty year growth in securitization. A lot of activities that were once done strictly on bank balance sheets are merely originated by banks and are sold into capital markets...you could in theory go back to having much more on balance sheet intermediation (finance speak for ``dial the clock back 35 years and have banks keep pretty much all their loans''). Conceptually, that is a tidy solution, but it has a massive flaw: it would take a simply enormous amount of equity to provide enough equity to all those banks with their vastly bigger balance sheets. We're having enough trouble recapitalizing the banking system we have...I have yet to see anything even remotely approaching a realistic discussion of how to deal with too big too fail firms, and we have been at this for months. My knowledge of the industry is not fully current, but even so, the difficulties are far greater than I have seen acknowledged anywhere. That pretty much guarantees none of the proposals are serious, and nothing will be done on this front. That further implies the system will have to break down catastrophically before anything effective can be done. I really hope I am wrong on this one.

Glass Steagall; Mervyn King; naked capitalism; Paul Volcker; Real TBTF Problem.

The Baseline Scenario Thu 2009-10-08 16:52 EDT

The Problem with Securitization

James Kwak

The New York Times has a story on ``Paralysis in the Debt Markets'' which says, basically, that credit has dried up because of lack of demand for asset-backed securities. In English, that means that since no one wants to invest in securities that are made out of home mortgages, the people who originate mortgages have no place to sell the mortgages to, so they don't have any money to lend. And this is also true of commercial real estate, student loans, and so on. For example, ``A once-thriving private market in securities backed by home mortgages has collapsed, from $744 billion in 2005, at the peak of the housing boom, to $8 billion during the first half of this year.''...the private market may never recover. The boom in securitization was based on investors' willingness to believe what investment banks and credit rating agencies said about these securities.

Baseline Scenario; problem; securitizations.

Jesse's Café Américain Tue 2009-09-22 09:15 EDT

Confessions of a 'Flationary Agnostic

Jesse

I have no particular allegiance to either the hyperinflation or the deflationary camps. Both outcomes are possible, but not yet probable. Rather than being a benefit, occupying the middle ground too often just puts one in the middle, being able to see the merits in both arguments and possibilities, and being unwilling to ignore the flaws in each argument...The growth rate of dollars is slowing at the same time that the 'demand' for dollars, the velocity of money and the creation of new commercial credit, is slowing. GDP is negative, and the growth rate of money supply is still positive, and rather healthy. This is not a monetary deflation, but rather the signs of an emerging stagflation fueled by slow real economic activity and monetization, or hot money, from the Fed. The monetary authority is trying to lead the economic recovery through unusual monetary growth. All they are doing is creating more malinvestment, risk addiction, and asset bubbles...Using money as a 'tool' to stimulate or retard economic activity is a dangerous game indeed, fraught with unintended consequences and unexpected bubbles and imbalances, with a spiral of increasingly destabilizing crises and busts. The Obama Administration bears a heavy responsibility for this because of their failure to reform the system and restore balance to the economy in any meaningful way.

confessed; Flationary Agnostic; Jesse's Café Américain.

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Mon 2009-09-21 14:09 EDT

Is Pent-Up Inflation From Fed Printing Waiting On Deck?

Michael Shedlock

Inquiring minds are wondering about the possibility of "pent-up" inflation from the massive expansion money supply by the Fed...Hardly. A funny thing happened to the inflation theory: Banks aren't lending and proof can be found in excess reserves at member banks. Because of rising credit card defaults, commercial real estate defaults, foreclosures, walk-aways, and other bad debts, banks need those reserves to cover future losses...banks are insolvent, unable or unwilling to lend. Moreover, tapped out consumers are unable or unwilling to borrow.

deck; Fed Printing Waiting; Inflation; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis; pent.

Bank-Implode! Sun 2009-09-20 12:22 EDT

Bank-Implode! >> Blog Archive >> Exclusive -- Wells Fargo's Commercial Portfolio is a ticking time bomb

In order to sort through the disaster that is Wells Fargo's (quote: WFC) commercial loan portfolio, the bank has hired help from outside experts to pour over the books... and they are shocked with what they are seeing. Not only do the bank's outstanding commercial loans collectively exceed the property values to which they are attached, but derivative trades leftover from its acquisition of Wachovia are creating another set of problems for the already beleaguered San Francisco-based megabank...According to sources currently working out these loans at Wells Fargo, when selling tranches of commercial mortgage-backed securities below the super senior tranche, Wachovia promised to pay the buyer's risk premium by writing credit default swap contracts against these subordinate bonds...should the junior tranches eventually default, then the bank is on the hook.

bank implode; blogs Archive; exclusive; ticking time bomb; Wells Fargo's commercial portfolio.

Taibblog Sun 2009-09-20 09:51 EDT

Will Obama listen to ex-Fed chief Paul Volcker's warnings?

Matt Taibbi

So former Fed chief Paul Volcker yesterday was spouting off about how nuts it is that certain ``too big to fail'' commercial banks that receive mountains of public money are allowed to run around acting like high-risk hedge funds...This would be meaningful if the Economic Recovery Board that Volcker runs for Obama were actually a chief policymaking center for the president. But the reality is that the Volcker group is a kind of show-pony the Obama administration kept on as a way to give consolation jobs to the more progressive economic advisers who led them through the campaign season, people like University of Chicago professor Austan Goolsbee...Obama did a bit of a bait-and-switch, hiring progressives to run his campaign and jettisoning them once he got into office. I hear about this phenomenon from different corners of the policymaking universe, from health care to defense and intelligence spending. But my sense is that the switch was most violent in the realm of economic policy...

ex-Fed chief Paul Volcker's warnings; Obama listen; Taibblog.

zero hedge Sun 2009-09-13 15:41 EDT

Mortgage Bankers Association Q2 Delinquency Rate Update

Even the traditionally optimistic MBA is starting to acknowledge the reality of accelerating deterioration within commercial real estate, as well as the delinquency pick up in multi-family loans by the Agencies...Life Insurance companies are dramatically misreporting their delinquency rates in an apparent effort to present an overoptimistic picture, with the blessing of the administration and the accountants

Mortgage Bankers Association Q2 Delinquency Rate Update; Zero Hedge.