naked capitalism Sat 2010-07-24 16:34 EDT

Summer Rerun: ``Unwinding the Fraud for Bubbles''

Tanta at Calculated Risk

This post first appeared on March 27, 2007. ...Telling the difference between the victims and the victimizers, the predators and the prey, and the fraudulent and the defrauded, is getting a lot harder when you have borrowers not required to make down payments able to lie about their incomes in order to buy a home the seller is overpricing in order to take an illegal kickback. The lender is getting defrauded, but the lender is the one who offered the zero-down stated-income program, delegated the drawing up of the legal documents and the final disbursement of funds to a fee-for-service settlement agent, and didn't do enough due diligence on the appraisal to see the inflation of the value. Legally, of course, there's a difference between lender as co-conspirator and lender as mark, utterly failing to exercise reasonable caution, but it's small comfort when the losses rack up. With tongue only partially in cheek, I'm about to suggest a third category of fraud: Fraud for Bubbles...My theory of the Fraud for Bubbles is, in a nutshell, that it isn't that lenders forgot that there are risks. It is that the miserable dynamic of unsound lending puffing up unsustainable real estate prices, which in turn kept supporting even more unsound lending, simply masked fraud problems sufficiently, and delayed the eventual ``feedback'' mechanisms sufficiently, that rampant fraud came to seem ``affordable.'' So many of the business practices that help fraud succeed--thinning backoffice staff, hiring untrained temps to replace retiring (and pricey) veterans, speeding up review processes, cutting back on due diligence sampling, accepting more and more copies, faxes, and phone calls instead of original ink-signed documents--threw off so much money that no one wanted to believe that the eventual cost of the fraud would eat it all up, and possibly more...

bubble; fraud; naked capitalism; summer reruns; unwinds.

New Economic Perspectives Mon 2010-05-24 10:52 EDT

The Coming European Debt Wars

Michael Hudson

Government debt in Greece is just the first in a series of European debt bombs that are set to explode. The mortgage debts in post-Soviet economies and Iceland are more explosive. Although these countries are not in the Eurozone, most of their debts are denominated in euros. Some 87% of Latvia's debts are in euros or other foreign currencies, and are owed mainly to Swedish banks, while Hungary and Romania owe euro-debts mainly to Austrian banks. So their government borrowing by non-euro members has been to support exchange rates to pay these private sector debts to foreign banks, not to finance a domestic budget deficit as in Greece...No one wants to accept the fact that debts that can't be paid, won't be. Someone must bear the cost as debts go into default or are written down, to be paid in sharply depreciated currencies...The question is, who will bear the loss?...There is growing recognition that the post-Soviet economies were structured from the start to benefit foreign interests, not local economies. For example, Latvian labor is taxed at over 50% (labor, employer, and social tax) -- so high as to make it noncompetitive, while property taxes are less than 1%, providing an incentive toward rampant speculation...Future relations between Old and New Europe will depend on the Eurozone's willingness to re-design the post-Soviet economies on more solvent lines -- with more productive credit and a less rentier-biased tax system that promotes employment rather than asset-price inflation that drives labor to emigrate...

Coming European Debt Wars; New Economic Perspectives.

zero hedge Sat 2010-05-22 13:41 EDT

Albert Edwards: Europe Is On The Edge Of A Deflationary Precipice That Will, Paradoxically, Usher In 20-30% Inflation

A few days ago we pointed out that the latest Japanese GDP deflator came at multi-decade lows, this despite years of printing, pumping and other -ings. Today, Albert Edwards takes the observation of rampant regional deflation and concludes precisely what we have long claimed, that once rampant deflation is finally acknowledged by central bankers everywhere, and they are now running out for time, their only natural response to preserve the system will be to do what Japan has been doing for decades (successfully, they will claim) and respond with the most extreme round of monetization ever seen, "inevitably driving us towards out ultimate destination - 1970's style 20-30% inflation."...

20 30; Albert Edwards; deflationary precipice; edge; Europe; Inflation; paradox; usher; Zero Hedge.

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Fri 2009-12-18 09:52 EST

China Faces Crash Scenario

Michael Shedlock

Problems in China continue to mount. Money supply is growing rampantly out of control, property prices are in a bubble, exports are weak, commodity speculation is pervasive, and GDP growth is more of a mirage than real...I side with Andy Xie who states ``China's asset markets are a Ponzi scheme''...Various Chinese asset bubbles are guaranteed to pop, but as I have said many times, the timing of such events is unknown. In this case however, I am more apt to believe sooner, rather than later.

China Faces Crash Scenario; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis.

The Guardian World News Wed 2009-11-25 10:31 EST

What was really behind the crash?

John Cassidy

In an exclusive extract from his new book, John Cassidy explains why the huge salaries of Wall Street bosses created a culture that helped trigger the financial crisis...In the wake of last year's crash, even some top bankers have conceded that Wall Street remuneration schemes lead to excessive risk-taking...But without direct government involvement, the effort to reform Wall Street compensation won't survive the next market upturn. For although the financial sector as a whole has an interest in controlling rampant short-termism and irresponsible risk-taking, individual firms have an incentive to hire away star traders from any rivals that have introduced pay limits. Compensation reforms, therefore, are bound to break down. In this case, as in many others, the only way to reach a socially desirable outcome is to enforce compliance. And the only body that can do that is the government.

Crash; Guardian World News; really.

naked capitalism Fri 2009-10-23 09:50 EDT

Guest Post: The Ongoing Cover Up of the Truth Behind the Financial Crisis May Lead to Another Crash

George Washington of Washington's Blog

William K. Black -- professor of economics and law, and the senior regulator during the S & L crisis -- says that that the government's entire strategy now -- as during the S&L crisis -- is to cover up how bad things are (''the entire strategy is to keep people from getting the facts'')...PhD economist Dean Baker made a similar point, lambasting the Federal Reserve for blowing the bubble, and pointing out that those who caused the disaster are trying to shift the focus as fast as they can...Economist Thomas Palley says that Wall Street also has a vested interest in covering up how bad things are...The media has largely parroted what the White House and Wall Street were saying...One of the foremost experts on structured finance and derivatives -- Janet Tavakoli -- says that rampant fraud and Ponzi schemes caused the financial crisis. University of Texas economics professor James K. Galbraith agrees...Congress woman Marcy Kaptur says that there was rampant fraud leading up to the crash...Black and economist Simon Johnson also state that the banks committed fraud by making loans to people that they knew would default, to make huge profits during the boom, knowing that the taxpayers would bail them out when things went bust.

Crash; Financial Crisis; Guest Post; lead; naked capitalism; Ongoing Cover; truth.

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Thu 2009-10-08 15:29 EDT

Competitive Currency Debasement - A Look at Rampant Monetary Expansion In China

Michael Shedlock

The Chinese central banks' printing and respective Chinese bank lending make us look like amateurs. Chinese central bank assets and the money supply are up 25-26% annualized YTD...nearly everyone is absolutely sure the Renminbi would soar if China allowed it to float. Conceivably it could crash...Neither the G-20 nor G-7 did anything to address the massive global imbalances. Something critical is going to blow sky high, when and what remains to be seen.

China; Competitive Currency Debasement; looking; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis; Rampant Monetary Expansion.

Jesse's Café Américain Mon 2009-09-14 12:03 EDT

Moral Hazard and Economic Donkeys

Jesse

Simon Johnson on moral hazard: the corruption of the capitalist system introduced by a Fed (the Economic Donkeys) that recklessly exercises a function as 'lender of last resort,' in conjunction with a political environment (less sophisticated Economic Donkeys) that can be politely described as being driven by 'regulatory capture' rather than the less euphemistic 'rampant corruption.'

Economic Donkeys; Jesse's Café Américain; moral hazard.