The Economic Populist - Speak Your Mind 2 Cents at a Time Sun 2010-02-07 18:20 EST

Is Residential Real Estate a Ticking Time Bomb?

...First is the latest SIGTARP report saying the Government has become the mortgage market with U.S. taxpayers shouldering the risk. From the SIGTARP report we have a 100% government mortgage market at this point...Fannie and Freddie now have an unlimited bailout and it is estimated they have lost $400 billion dollars. The plan is to purchase $1.25 trillion mortgage backed securities from these two GSEs until the end of March...The number of homeowners who are strategically walking away from their mortgages is up to 10% this year...All of the above free money, the government pouring in trillions of dollars to prop up the housing market. Yet while price declines have slowed, prices are still declining and the above simply cannot go on forever. In fact one thing isn't going on forever. The Fed will stop buying MBSes at the end of March, 2010. So, when our government created illusion does pop, do we then have the real housing bubble implosion?

economic populist; Mind 2 Cents; residential real estate; speaking; ticking time bomb; Time.

zero hedge Fri 2010-01-29 16:36 EST

Guest Post: Government Spending, Bank Lending And Inflation

Submitted by Kletus Klump In his latest weekly commentary, Inflation Myth and Reality, Dr. John Hussman makes the argument that changes-in federal government spending dictate the future path of inflation. As shown below, his data set covers the period from 1951 through 2008 and there appears to be a decent correlation. However, his data set is incomplete in 2 respects: 1. It does not include the Great Depression years and 2. It does not include data on bank lending. The relationship between government spending and future inflation was vastly different during the years of 1932 to 1941. The correlation between the 2 series for this time period is negative 0.25. The factor causing this is change in mortgage-loan growth...fears of government-spending-induced extended inflation in terms of time and magnitude are not a concern until the lending mechanism improves.

bank lending; government spending; Guest Post; Inflation; Zero Hedge.

zero hedge Fri 2010-01-15 17:46 EST

Is The Mysterious "Direct Bidder" Simply China Executing 'Quantitative Easing' On Behalf Of The Federal Reserve?

...we make the claim that the Fed has now informally offloaded the Treasury portion of Quantitative Easing to China, which does so via the elusive Direct Bid. It also explains why the Fed has generically been much less worried about TSY purchases under Q.E. (a mere $300 billion out of a total $1.7 trillion in monetization). It does beg the question of just how much Chinese holdings of US Debt truly are, as this number is likely hundreds of billions higher than the disclosed $799 billion...if there is indeed an implicit understanding between Bernanke and his Chinese colleagues, it means that not only the housing market (via Agency and MBS security purchases), but the Treasury market as well, are both manipulated beyond recognition and implies that broad securities are massively overvalued due to the stealth purchasing of core "riskless" assets by the US and China, as investors look higher in the cap structure for yield. Lastly, implications for world trade are great, as Asian countries will have to deal not only with the Chinese behemoth, which will constantly seek to keep its currency as low as possible, thus exacerbating the rest of Asia's foreign trade balances, but that of the US itself. The immediate implication is that China (or the US for that matter) will likely not reflate their currencies out of their own volition any time in the foreseeable future. Look for a much weaker dollar in the coming months.

behalf; Direct bidders; Federal Reserve; mysteriously; Quantitative Easing; Simply China Executing; Zero Hedge.

zero hedge Mon 2009-12-28 15:12 EST

Quantitative Easing Has Been A Monetary Failure; Persistent Deflation Means More Fed Intervention Coming Soon

As more and more pundits discuss the spectre of inflation, with gold flying to all time highs which many explain as an inflation hedge, not to mention stock price performance which is extrapolating virtual hyperinflation, the market "truth" as determined by Fed Fund futures and options is, and continues to be, diametrically opposite...Bernanke is very likely about to unleash Quantitative Easing 2: If the $1.7 trillion already thrown at the problem has not fixed it, you can bet that the Chairman will not stop here. Furthermore, as the Fed has the best perspective on the economy, which is certainly far worse than is represented, the Fed has to act fast before things escalate even more out of control. Which is why Zero Hedge is willing to wager that not only will the agency/MBS program not expire in March as it is supposed to, but that a parallel QE process will likely begin very shortly. The end result of all these actions, of course, is that the value of the dollar is about to plummet: when Bernanke announces that not only will he not end QE but that he will launch another version of the program, expect the dollar to take off on its one way path to $2 = €1. And when that happens, look for global trade to cease completely. In its quest to continue bailing out the banking system and rolling the trillions of toxic loans it refuses to accept are worthless (for if it did, equity values in the banking system would go, to zero immediately), the Fed will promptly resume destroying not only the US middle class, but the entire system of global trade built through many years of globalization. Look for America to end up in an insulated liquidity bubble in a few short years, trading exclusively with its vassal master: the People's Republic of China.

Fed Intervention Coming; Monetary Failure; Persistent Deflation Means; Quantitative Easing; Zero Hedge.

zero hedge Mon 2009-12-28 15:05 EST

Guest Post: Deficit Doubles for Government's Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp.

TraderMark

...let's take a look at the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp - another Ponzi scheme in a country now running a series of them, full tilt, concurrently. Also known as "prosperity". The PBGC bailout will just be a pebble versus what could be faced in the greater pension system as a whole... $1 trillion?

deficit double; Government's Pension Benefit Guaranty Corp; Guest Post; Zero Hedge.

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Mon 2009-12-21 19:32 EST

Fictional Reserve Lending And The Myth Of Excess Reserves

Michael Shedlock

...The chart shows an unprecedented amount of excess reserves, almost $1.2 trillion. According to Money Multiplier Theory (MMT) and Fractional Reserve Lending, this amount may be lent out as much as 10 times over and when it does, massive inflation will result. The above hypotheses regarding "Excess Reserves" are wrong for five reasons. 1) Lending comes first and what little reserves there are (if any) come later. 2) There really are no excess reserves. 3) Not only are there no excess reserves, there are essentially no reserves to speak of at all. Indeed, bank reserves are completely "fictional". 4) Banks are capital constrained not reserve constrained. 5) Banks aren't lending because there are few credit worthy borrowers worth the risk.

excess reserves; Fictional Reserve Lending; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis; myth.

Unqualified Reservations Fri 2009-12-18 10:03 EST

Expiring liquidity facilities: bad plan, Stan

Mencius Moldbug

I predict: serious financial disturbances will occur on or before February 1, 2010. Or soon thereafter...I also have a serious - ie, verifiable - prediction. I predict that before the end of 2010, probably well before the end of 2010, possibly even before the beginning of 2010, the Fed will be forced to renew these facilities or others like them. In other words, I predict that its attempt to kick the liquidity junk will not succeed. In the end, I believe all these "temporary" facilities will become substantively permanent - just like the original LF, deposit insurance.

Bad plans; Expiring liquidity facilities; Stan; Unqualified Reservations.

naked capitalism Tue 2009-12-08 18:26 EST

Guest Post: Woman Who Invented Credit Default Swaps [Blythe Masters] is One of the Key Architects of Carbon Derivatives, Which Would Be at the Very CENTER of Cap and Trade

...If the government allows massive carbon derivatives trading with as little oversight as over the CDS market, taxpayers will end up spending many trillions bailing out the giant banks and propping up the economy when the carbon market bubble bursts...(1) the giant banks will make a killing on carbon trading, (2) while the leading scientist crusading against global warming says it won't work, and (3) there is a very high probability of massive fraud and insider trading in the carbon trading markets.

Blythe Masters; capped; carbon derivatives; center; Guest Post; invented credit default swaps; key architect; naked capitalism; trading; Woman.

Tue 2009-12-01 22:52 EST

Harvard ignored warnings about investments - The Boston Globe

It happened at least once a year, every year. In a roomful of a dozen Harvard University financial officials, Jack Meyer, the hugely successful head of Harvard's endowment, and Lawrence Summers, then the school's president, would face off in a heated debate. The topic: cash and how the university was managing - or mismanaging - its basic operating funds. Through the first half of this decade, Meyer repeatedly warned Summers and other Harvard officials that the school was being too aggressive with billions of dollars in cash, according to people present for the discussions, investing almost all of it with the endowment's risky mix of stocks, bonds, hedge funds, and private equity. Meyer's successor, Mohamed El-Erian, would later sound the same warnings to Summers, and to Harvard financial staff and board members. ... But the warnings fell on deaf ears, under Summers's regime and beyond. And when the market crashed in the fall of 2008, Harvard would pay dearly, as $1.8 billion in cash simply vanished. Indeed, it is still paying, in the form of tighter budgets, deferred expansion plans, and big interest payments on bonds issued to cover the losses.

Boston Globe; Harvard ignored warnings; investment.

zero hedge Mon 2009-11-30 11:15 EST

Fannie Mae Reports Massive Q3 Loss, Asks For Another $15 Billion From Government As It Is Set To Become Largest US Landlord

The latest particular does of lunacy and economic calamity coming out of the intellectual midgets at Fannie and the FHA should be sufficient to push the market well into 1,100 territory tomorrow. FNM's loss for Q3 is $18.9 billion, up from $14.8 billion in Q2, a time when the market was up a good 15%: ever wonder who keeps on subsidizing those gain? That's right - you. Credit-related expenses increased to $22 billion in Q3 from $18.8 billion in Q2. Oh, and Fannie now wants another $15 billion rescue from the Treasury (which is having some troubles with getting that pesky debt ceiling raised to one googol) so it can continue with its plan of keeping shadow inventory away from the market, rent foreclosed houses to their owners at staggeringly low rates, and continue the pretence that bank's balance sheets are well capitalized...

15; asks; becoming largest; Fannie Mae Reports Massive Q3 Loss; government; landlord; set; Zero Hedge.

zero hedge Wed 2009-11-25 12:13 EST

Two Opposing Amendments Emerge That Seek To Either Perpetuate The Fed's Secrecy, Or Overturn It

As the time to make or break the Fiat Money Overlords (no, not Chrysler), aka the Successor to the Second Bank of The United States which President Andrew Jackson managed to disassemble in 1832, yet which came back with a vengeance in 1913 under the guise of the Federal Reserve, approaches, two independent amendments emerged today: one drafted by Fed transparency proponents Ron Paul and Alan Grayson (found here) and one by Bank of America and Citigroup's favorite Congressman, North Carolina democrat Mel Watt (found here). As a reminder, here is a list of the Congressman's top contributors and sources of money in 2007-2008, which may explain some of his motivations: #1 Bank of America;#2 Wachovia Corp;#3 American Express;#4 American Bankers Assn.

Fed's Secrecy; Opposing Amendments Emerge; overturn; perpetual; seek; Zero Hedge.

naked capitalism Wed 2009-11-25 11:37 EST

Marc Faber: ``I don't think that you'll see gold below $1,000 per ounce probably ever''

Edward Harrison of Credit Writedowns

...cash is now trash with zero interest rates. So holding cash means underperforming. Bonds present an unfavourable risk/reward. Therefore, commodities and precious metals look attractive. One must also have equities exposure. Interestingly, he makes a fairly explicit statement in favour of peak oil from about 1:40 in the second video below. The world is adding less in oil reserves than it consumes. That necessarily means a tighter supply/demand dynamic, especially given the demand in emerging economies for oil.

000; 1; Marc Faber; naked capitalism; ounce probably; see gold; Think.

zero hedge Wed 2009-11-25 10:10 EST

Shadow Banking Topology

A new paper by the IMF provides much needed insights into the nature of Asset Backed Commercial Paper (ABCP) conduits, which amounted to $1.2 trillion in June 2007, a subset of the broader Commercial Paper shadow asset class (which as Bill Dudley discussed a week ago, hit a peak of $2.3 trillion), and the product's role in funding imbalances (and maturity mismatch) at global banks courtesy of the shadow banking system. However, the most useful observation of the paper's addenda include insights into the global shadow banking system's holdings, as well as its changing composition over time, the collapse of the ABS securitization market whose reincarnation via TALF is critical for preventing the CRE market's implosion in 2012, and lastly a comprehensive overview of the entire shadow banking system...

Shadow Banking Topology; Zero Hedge.

Bruce Krasting Thu 2009-11-19 10:52 EST

FHFA's DeMarco Speaks - Ouch!

Bruce Krasting

FHFA's Acting Director Edward DeMarco provided written testimony to the Senate today. I would give his presentation a B+. There is little room for optimism in this story. Mr. DeMarco did not gloss that fact over. A few snips from that speech: -From July 2007 through the first half of 2009--combined losses at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac totaled $165 billion. In the first half of 2009, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac together reported net losses of $47 billion. -Since the establishment of the conservatorships, the combined losses at the two Enterprises depleted all their capital and required them to draw $96 billion. The combined support from the federal government exceeds $1 trillion. -The short-term outlook for the Enterprises remains troubled and likely will require additional draws...

Bruce Krasting; FHFA's DeMarco Speaks; Ouch.

zero hedge Thu 2009-11-19 10:42 EST

Fannie Mae Seriously Delinquent Rate Hockeysticks to 4.45% From 1.57% In Prior Year

The FNM "seriously delinquent" rate has gone parabolic, increasing by roughly 5% sequentially and just under 300% YoY. As mere text will simply not do this metric justice, please enjoy this chart of the dataset from Blytic. It tells you all you need to know about the Fed's containment of the housing problem. The August seriously delinquent single-family number comprised of a 2.87% non-credit enhanced delinquencies and a very bothersome 11.52%, consisting of credit enhanced loans. The deterioration of FNM's book however did not stop it from increasing the size of its book. In September Fannie's total book of business hit $3.242 trillion, up from $3.229 trillion in August and $3.079 trillion in the prior year.

1; 4; 45; 57; Fannie Mae Seriously Delinquent Rate Hockeysticks; prior years; Zero Hedge.

naked capitalism Tue 2009-10-27 12:18 EDT

Guest Post: Capitalism, Socialism or Fascism?

George Washington of Washington's Blog

What is the current American economy: capitalism, socialism or fascism? ...Nouriel Roubini writes ``We're essentially continuing a system where profits are privatized and...losses socialized.'' Nassim Nicholas Taleb says ``the government is socializing all these losses by transforming them into liabilities for your children and grandchildren and great-grandchildren.'' Nobel prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz calls it ``socialism for the rich'' ...leading journalist Robert Scheer writes: ``What is proposed is not the nationalization of private corporations but rather a corporate takeover of government. The marriage of highly concentrated corporate power with an authoritarian state that services the politico-economic elite at the expense of the people is more accurately referred to as ``financial fascism'''' ...Italian historian Gaetano Salvemini argued in 1936 that fascism makes taxpayers responsible to private enterprise, because ``the State pays for the blunders of private enterprise... Profit is private and individual. Loss is public and social'' ...one of the best definitions of fascism -- the one used by Mussolini -- is the ``merger of state and corporate power`` ...Nobel prize-winning economist George Akerlof co-wrote a paper in 1993 describing the causes of the S&L crisis and other financial meltdowns...[Looting is the] common thread [when] countries took on excessive foreign debt, governments had to bail out insolvent financial institutions, real estate prices increased dramatically and then fell, or new financial markets experienced a boom and bust...Our theoretical analysis shows that an economic underground can come to life if firms have an incentive to go broke for profit at society's expense (to loot) instead of to go for broke (to gamble on success). Bankruptcy for profit will occur if poor accounting, lax regulation, or low penalties for abuse give owners an incentive to pay themselves more than their firms are worth and then default on their debt obligations ...Whether we use the terminology regarding socialism-for-the-giants (''socialized losses''), of fascism (''public and social losses''), or of looting (''left the government holding the bag for their eventual and predictable losses''), it amounts to the exact same thing. [kleptocracy] Great comments, including Joseph: Three core ideas characterize the myth of our society: 1. Free market; 2. Capitalism; 3. Democracy. The conceptual error that people make is to think that they are compatible, or indeed represent aspect of the same thing. In fact they are all deeply antagonistic towards each other. It is the miracle of post-war society that we managed to hold them in balance for so long. That balance has now been destroyed. A simple example of the contradiction, and the one that the over-socialised right finds most confusing, is the contradiction between capitalism and the market. Capitalism is a system of ownership; the market is a system of distribution. The perfect world for the capitalist is one in which they are price setters in terms of the commodities they produce and labour they employ -- ie a state of monopoly. Each individual capitalist seeks the destruction of the market. What has occurred over the past year is not corruption; it is the triumph of capitalism. The market and democracy have been defeated. Not socialism, not fascism,...

capitalism; Fascism; Guest Post; naked capitalism; social.