dimelab dimelab: shrinking the gap between talk and action.

argument Topic in The Credit Debacle Catalog

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Jesse's Café Américain Thu 2010-01-07 19:07 EST

Class Warfare American Style

Matt Taibbi's reaction to the ZeroHedge story with regard to Turbo Tim's lifting of the government support on Christmas Eve for the GSE's was exactly my own. You can read it in its entirety here. What he does not overtly say is that this is class warfare, and it is becoming worse in the US than at any time since the 1930's. And the outcome of this will be a fundamental test of the US commitment to its republic. The media stokes the viewing public into emotionally-based and virulently distracting arguments about liberal versus conservative, while the gentried class skins them all alive.

Class Warfare American Style; Jesse's Café Américain.

zero hedge Tue 2010-01-05 19:26 EST

Roubini Blasts "The Barbarous Relic," Recommends Spam Over Gold

In a headline piece on roubini.com, Nouriel Roubini writes an extended article slamming both gold bugs, and the so-called gold bubble, which he believes is far too volatile, and which, contrary to ever increasing claims to the opposite, will likely not get to the mythical price of $2000/ounce, and instead will head lower. The argument presented, as is widely the case, boils down to the trifecta of i)gold having no industrial utility, ii) no intrinsic value (no associated cash flow streams) and iii) costing an arm and a leg to store. While Roubini's thesis is attractive on the surface (if somewhat Keynesian and thus often reiterated by mainstream Economists), we present some counter arguments to Roubini's thesis.

barbaric relic; gold; Recommends Spam; Roubini blast; Zero Hedge.

zero hedge Thu 2009-12-17 10:37 EST

Is Selling US CDS A Risk-Free Way To Short The Dollar?

There has been much conjecture on whether using CDS is an effective way to hedge against US default risk. Many theoreticians, especially those of the post-March lows variety, have sprung up and are speculating that buying Credit Default Swaps on the US is ultimately a futile and pointless endeavor. The main argument: a US default would likely mean that interconnected dealers won't recognize contracts on a US default event, as they themselves will be out of business. Even if they continued to exist, like cockroaches in a postapocalyptic world, the collateral which backs derivatives is mostly US Treasurys: the same obligations that would end up being massively impaired...the US CDS seller syndicate could easily be one of the key sources of dollar short funding: with sellers pocketing euros and immediately going to market and selling dollars...a dollar-short unwind would probably have repercussions in the US CDS market. Not only would the dollar spike, but paradoxically US credit risk would probably widen dramatically...any unwind at the heart of the prevalent risk trade now: the massive dollar carry, would impact virtually every investment product, quite possibly in self-referential feedback loops. If correct, it merely shows how much more the Fed has at stake in keeping the dollar depressed than merely getting mom and pop to buy Amazon at $130/share. Losing control of the carry trade will be the systemic equivalent of allowing Lehman's book to be marked-to-market: a potentially complete collapse in systemic confidence, which would have such far ranging implications as the $300 trillion interest rate derivative market. And when sudden volatility reaches this product universe which is 6 times bigger than world GDP, the events from last year will seem like a dress rehearsal.

CDS; Dollar; Risk-Free Way; sell; short; Zero Hedge.

naked capitalism Wed 2009-11-11 13:50 EST

Guest Post: Big Banks Are NOT More Efficient

I have repeatedly pointed out that big banks are not more efficient than smaller banks. For example, I previously noted that an article in Fortune concluded: The largest banks often don't show the greatest efficiency...``They actually experience diseconomies of scale,''...James Kwak has done some sleuthing and discovered that even Fed economists don't buy the bigger-is-more-efficient argument...

big banks; efficiency; Guest Post; naked capitalism.

naked capitalism Tue 2009-10-27 12:37 EDT

Why is Zero Hedge claiming the Fed is intervening in equities markets?

I just came across a post on Zero Hedge called ``An Overview Of The Fed's Intervention In Equity Markets Via The Primary Dealer Credit Facility.'' Now, that's a mouthful. As far as I can discern, the post's purpose is to expose alleged equities market manipulation by the Federal Reserve. However, I found the argument rather conspiratorial. And despite claims of an alleged smoking gun, there is no evidence in the post that that Federal Reserve is manipulating anything except interest rates. And the Fed made clear that that was what it intended to do.

equity markets; Fed; intervening; naked capitalism; Zero Hedge claiming.

Wed 2009-10-14 12:45 EDT

Who Needs Big Banks? >> The Baseline Scenario

...The American Dream is for people, not companies. And people dream of working hard, being successful, making money, and having an impact on the world...This whole argument, that global companies need massive banks, is one of those things that sound plausible until you actually start thinking about them.

Baseline Scenario; Needs Big Banks.

Dr. Housing Bubble Blog Tue 2009-10-13 20:03 EDT

No Country for Old Jobs: 10 Charts Showing the Fragile Recovery. Home Sales, Buying versus Renting, Unemployment, and Real Economy Data.

...Until jobs start showing up, any talk of a rebounding housing market is moot especially with this entire artificial stimulus still bouncing around the economy. And collapsing tax revenues are not a good sign. I don't buy the jobless recovery argument and the government tends to agree. If all is well, why is the U.S. government and Fed buying $1.25 trillion in agency debt to lower mortgage rates, putting in place an $8,000 tax credit, boosting car sales with gimmicks, encouraging risky low money down loans with FHA insured products, and extending unemployment insurance to a record 92 weeks in states like California? Do these things sounds like policies of a booming economy?

10 Charts Showing; Buying versus Renting; country; Dr. Housing Bubble Blog; Fragile recovery; home Sale; old job; Real Economy Data; unemployment.

Tue 2009-10-06 21:14 EDT

TraderFeed: Featured Book Look: Dear Mr. Buffett by Janet Tavakoli

Only when the tide goes out do you discover who's been swimming naked," Warren Buffett once observed. Janet Tavakoli's book Dear Mr. Buffett is less about the Oracle From Omaha than the various naked swimmers in the recent financial markets. The essence of her argument is that the recent financial turmoil is not the result of unpredictable black swan events; rather, it is the consequence of out and out malfeasance on the part of those who take risk and those who are charged with regulating it.

Featured Book Look; Janet Tavakoli; Mr. Buffett; TraderFeed.

Jesse's Café Américain Tue 2009-09-22 09:15 EDT

Confessions of a 'Flationary Agnostic

I have no particular allegiance to either the hyperinflation or the deflationary camps. Both outcomes are possible, but not yet probable. Rather than being a benefit, occupying the middle ground too often just puts one in the middle, being able to see the merits in both arguments and possibilities, and being unwilling to ignore the flaws in each argument...The growth rate of dollars is slowing at the same time that the 'demand' for dollars, the velocity of money and the creation of new commercial credit, is slowing. GDP is negative, and the growth rate of money supply is still positive, and rather healthy. This is not a monetary deflation, but rather the signs of an emerging stagflation fueled by slow real economic activity and monetization, or hot money, from the Fed. The monetary authority is trying to lead the economic recovery through unusual monetary growth. All they are doing is creating more malinvestment, risk addiction, and asset bubbles...Using money as a 'tool' to stimulate or retard economic activity is a dangerous game indeed, fraught with unintended consequences and unexpected bubbles and imbalances, with a spiral of increasingly destabilizing crises and busts. The Obama Administration bears a heavy responsibility for this because of their failure to reform the system and restore balance to the economy in any meaningful way.

confessed; Flationary Agnostic; Jesse's Café Américain.

Thu 2009-09-17 09:31 EDT

Why capitalism fails - The Boston Globe

Mainstream economics rediscovers Hyman Minsky; ``Instability,'' he wrote, ``is an inherent and inescapable flaw of capitalism.''...Minsky drew his own, far darker, lessons from Keynes's landmark writings, which dealt not only with the problem of unemployment, but with money and banking...Minsky argued that Keynes's collective work amounted to a powerful argument that capitalism was by its very nature unstable and prone to collapse. Far from trending toward some magical state of equilibrium, capitalism would inevitably do the opposite. It would lurch over a cliff...Minsky spent the last years of his life, in the early 1990s, warning of the dangers of securitization and other forms of financial innovation, but few economists listened. Nor did they pay attention to consumers' and companies' growing dependence on debt, and the growing use of leverage within the financial system... Minsky...argued for a ``bubble-up'' approach, sending money to the poor and unskilled first. The government - or what he liked to call ``Big Government'' - should become the ``employer of last resort,'' he said, offering a job to anyone who wanted one at a set minimum wage. It would be paid to workers who would supply child care, clean streets, and provide services that would give taxpayers a visible return on their dollars. In being available to everyone, it would be even more ambitious than the New Deal, sharply reducing the welfare rolls by guaranteeing a job for anyone who was able to work. Such a program would not only help the poor and unskilled, he believed, but would put a floor beneath everyone else's wages too, preventing salaries of more skilled workers from falling too precipitously, and sending benefits up the socioeconomic ladder.

Boston Globe; Capitalism Failed.

naked capitalism Mon 2009-09-14 12:13 EDT

Guest Post: We Can't Break Up the Giant Banks, Can We? Yes We Can!

Top economists and financial experts believe that the economy cannot recover unless the big, insolvent banks are broken up in an orderly fashion. Arguments by defenders of the too-big-to-fails are shown unpersuasive.

break; giant bank; Guest Post; naked capitalism.

Thu 2009-02-26 00:00 EST

Market Skeptics: *****Hyperinflation will begin in China and destroy the dollar*****

by Eric deCarbonnel; interesting but dubious argument; mish comments;

Begins; China; destroyed; Dollar; Hyperinflation; Markets Skeptical.

Fri 2009-01-16 00:00 EST

AlterNet: The Right Wing's Latest Argument Against Public Health Care -- We'd Like It Too Much

by Lindsay Beyerstein; Cato Institute, wherein Michael F. Cannon argues that blocking Obama's health plan is the key to GOP survival...once people start getting good health care from the government at a price they can afford, they want to keep re-electing the politicians who make that possible.''

AlterNet; public health care; Right Wing's Latest Argument.

Mon 2008-05-19 00:00 EDT

Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment: Poor Fundamentals with Borderline Market Action - May 19, 2008

appeasement defined; 2003 arguments against war, in favor of diplomacy

19; 2008; Borderline Market Action; Hussman Funds; poor fundamentals; weekly market comments.

Thu 2008-03-27 00:00 EDT

naked capitalism: The Failure of Finance

"Cassandra has given an argument for my gut instinct that if the credit crisis cannot be arrested...the path we are on is deflationary rather than inflationary"

failure; finance; naked capitalism.

Mon 2007-11-19 00:00 EST

naked capitalism: Fed's Gary Stern Makes Lame Arguments Against Increased Credit Market Regulation

Fed's Gary Stern Makes Lame Arguments; Increased Credit Market Regulation; naked capitalism.

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