zero hedge Sun 2010-05-09 09:45 EDT

The Day The Market Almost Died (Courtesy Of High Frequency Trading)

A year ago, before anyone aside from a hundred or so people had ever heard the words High Frequency Trading, Flash orders, Predatory algorithms, Sigma X, Sonar, Market topology, Liquidity providers, Supplementary Liquidity Providers, and many variations on these, Zero Hedge embarked upon a path to warn and hopefully prevent a full-blown market meltdown. On April 10, 2009, in a piece titled "The Incredibly Shrinking Market Liquidity, Or The Black Swan Of Black Swans" we cautioned "what happens in a world where the very core of the capital markets system is gradually deleveraging to a point where maintaining a liquid and orderly market becomes impossible: large swings on low volume, massive bid-offer spreads, huge trading costs, inability to clear and numerous failed trades. When the quant deleveraging finally catches up with the market, the consequences will likely be unprecedented, with dramatic dislocations leading the market both higher and lower on record volatility." Today, after over a year of seemingly ceaseless heckling and jeering by numerous self-proclaimed experts and industry lobbyists, we are vindicated...absent the last minute intervention of still unknown powers, the market, for all intents and purposes, broke. Liquidity disappeared. What happened today was no fat finger, it was no panic selling by one major account: it was simply the impact of everyone in the HFT community going from port to starboard on the boat, at precisely the same time...It is time for the SEC to do its job and not only ban flash trading as it said it would almost a year ago, but get rid of all the predatory aspects of high frequency trading, which are pretty much all of them...HFT killed over 12 months of hard fought propaganda by the likes of CNBC which has valiantly tried to restore faith in our broken capital markets. They have now failed in that task too. After today investors will have little if any faith left in the US stocks, assuming they had any to begin with. We need to purge the equity market structure of all liquidity-taking parasitic players. We must start today with High Frequency Trading...

courtesy; day; dies; high frequency trade; Market; Zero Hedge.

zero hedge Sun 2010-05-09 09:25 EDT

Dissecting The Crash

Here are two accounts dissecting in detail the events from yesterday. One is from Dan Hinckley at Wild Analytics, the second from Dan O'Brien. ...The idea that it was a 'fat finger' error is ludicrous; unless the fat finger hit every market in the world virtually simultaneously. Liquidity simply left the world financial markets for about four minutes this afternoon. The bids just vanished...In one second more or less someone (and yes, under these circumstances, human beings take control of the machines) made the decision to pull the bids on every equity in the S&P, every financial futures contract, every FX contract in every market in the world. This kind of thing just doesn't happen in a pure auction environment; there just isn't a tight enough communication link between the parties to allow the decisions to propagate within the same second -- even with HFT algorithms. No. Some human made the decision to pull the bids; all of them, all at once. If that is not a condemnation of the concentration of financial power and the systematic risk it engenders I don't know what is...How does all of this happen? Well, you can thank the Federal Reserve... 1) The Fed prints fake money out of thin air... 2) Large banks and hedge funds borrow money from the Fed at near-ZERO interest rates... 3) These institutions buy Treasuries with a guaranteed 4% return, thus guaranteeing the banks massive and risk-free profits on the backs of the middle class (remember, you're not allowed to earn an interest rate on your savings accounts!)... 4) These institutions then swap Treasuries with the Fed for cash... 5) These same institutions (banks) then take the cash and gun the stock market higher with its FREE MONEY from the government...I meant free money from you. By the way, were you asked to vote on this? Frankly, it's better than free money - they're being PAID to do this... 6) Banks pay the very clown-posse that cause the 2008 crash (and today's) the largest bonuses...EVER...with your tax dollars.

Crash; dissecting; Zero Hedge.

naked capitalism Thu 2010-04-22 18:57 EDT

More Evidence of Lack of Competitiveness of Many Chinese Exporters

...From Bloomberg: The profits of China's makers of household appliances, automobiles and cell phones may plunge by between 30 percent and 50 percent if the Chinese currency were to strengthen by 3 percent, according to a state media report. Small and medium-size exporters with low price-negotiating powers will face losses and may even go out of business, according to the Xinhua News Agency's Economic Information Daily newspaper, citing the results of a ``stress test.'' ... Richard Kline: ...Not that it matters at all for US manufacturing whether the renminbi notches up or not. Because wealth enterprises in the US don't really give a damn about their host country. Low-value added assembly will simply flow to Vietnam, Bangaladesh, back to Mexico, or the like. An industrial policy presupposes a political policy. And the malefactors of great wealth have complete control of US governmental policy, as we see, and not the least interest in investing in their host country. Great wealth here is parasitical, in a word. Fuddling about with currency rates won't change the political equation at all.

Chinese exports; competitions; evidence; lack; naked capitalism.

naked capitalism Mon 2010-04-19 18:46 EDT

Soros, Galbraith and Stiglitz on resisting inevitability in Greece

However, for now, it is Greece which is on everyone's mind...Kevin de Bruxelles says: ...I have to give credit to Angela Merkel. She is holding a pretty strong hand and it is now clear we are down to two choices for the endgame. The bailout solution will be international, in other words not limited to the Eurozone, and the amounts donated will be proportional to the risk each country holds. Or Greece simply defaults, probably first on their Anglo-Saxon debt (in return for low interest loans from Germany and France!), and each country then just bails out their respective banking system.

Galbraith; Greece; naked capitalism; resisting inevitability; Soros; Stiglitz.

Fri 2010-04-09 08:08 EDT

charles hugh smith-The Contrarian Trade of the Decade: the U.S. Dollar

charles hugh smith

The majority of economic observers seem convinced that the dollar is doomed, and not in some distant future...But perhaps this thinking is wrong on virtually every important count...While the Federal Reserve successfully goosed money supply in their massive "quantitative easing" campaign, money supply is no longer expanding at a fast clip...It seems the money "created" by the Federal Reserve and lent to private banks at near-zero interest rates is simply sitting in the banks as reserves to offset their continuing horrendous losses. As a result, it is not flowing into the economy, and thus it cannot trigger inflation...Indeed, as has often been noted by Mish and others, this is what has happened in Japan for the past two decades: the central bank shovels money into private banks, who either engage in "carry trade" activities (borrowing at near-zero interest and then moving the money overseas to earn a decent yield elsewhere for easy profits) or they stash the funds to offset their ongoing losses in defaulted/impaired portfolios...

Charles Hugh Smith; Contrarian Trade; decades; U.S. dollar.

naked capitalism Fri 2010-03-19 19:57 EDT

NY Fed Under Geithner Implicated in Lehman Accounting Fraud Allegation

Quite a few observers, including this blogger, have been stunned and frustrated at the refusal to investigate what was almost certain accounting fraud at Lehman. Despite the bankruptcy administrator's effort to blame the gaping hole in Lehman's balance sheet on its disorderly collapse, the idea that the firm, which was by its own accounts solvent, would suddenly spring a roughly $130+ billion hole in its $660 balance sheet, is simply implausible on its face. Indeed, it was such common knowledge in the Lehman flailing about period that Lehman's accounts were sus that Hank Paulson's recent book mentions repeatedly that Lehman's valuations were phony as if it were no big deal. Well, it is folks, as a newly-released examiner's report by Anton Valukas in connection with the Lehman bankruptcy makes clear. The unraveling isn't merely implicating Fuld and his recent succession of CFOs, or its accounting firm, Ernst & Young, as might be expected. It also emerges that the NY Fed, and thus Timothy Geithner, were at a minimum massively derelict in the performance of their duties, and may well be culpable in aiding and abetting Lehman in accounting fraud and Sarbox violations...

Geithner Implicated; Lehman Accounting Fraud Allegation; naked capitalism; NY Fed.

THE PRAGMATIC CAPITALIST Tue 2010-03-09 18:04 EST

GURU OUTLOOK: PAOLO PELLEGRINI

TPC

This week's Guru Outlook brings you Paolo Pellegrini. Although he is not the most well known of investment gurus Pellegrini has built quite a name for himself in recent years...He says we are essentially papering over the problems with more debt. We are simply adding more debt to a debt-laden world while China adds more exports to a saturated market. He says the problems in Europe are a harbinger of these continuing issues. Thus far the massive stimulus has been successful in jumpstarting the global economy, but is nothing more than a temporary respite from the longer-term structural problems that remain...

GURU OUTLOOK; Paolo Pellegrini; pragmatic capitalists.

Sun 2010-02-28 13:43 EST

"Sultans of Swap" by Gordon T Long, FSU Editorial 02/24/2010

...When asked why there are $605 Trillion derivatives outstanding (1) how do you articulate an answer to this horrendous and almost unimaginable number? The US is the largest economy in the world but tallies only 2.3% in comparison. Global bank reserves amount to only 1.2% of this accumulation. The gargantuan size appears to defy all logic...we discover the Sultans of Swap. The Bond Vigilantes are of a previous era. They are dead -- RIP. Through the magic mix of Credit Default Swaps, Dynamic Hedging and Interest Rate Swaps the Sultans of Swaps effectively control interest rate spreads. Through Regulatory Arbitrage they extort tremendous political sway globally. They live in the world of risk free spreads. Low interest rates simply attract more volume for their concoctions. We have had an explosion in Money Supply globally as the charts (right) indicate. The parabolic rise matches the increase in these derivative products along with their ability to turn Interest Rate Swaps into high powered bank lending...Everything is based on tax payers paying, GDP expanding and interest rates staying low...

FSU Editorial 02/24/2010; Gordon T Long; sultans; Swap.

Mon 2010-02-08 17:08 EST

The Bernanke Disaster: The Road to Debt Peonage

Michael Hudson

...On the political front, his reappointment is being cited as yet another proof that the Democrats care more for bankers than for American families and employees. As a result, it will do what seemed unfathomable a year ago: enable GOP candidates to strike the pose of FDR-type saviors of the embattled middle class. No doubt another decade of abject GOP economic failure would simply make the corporate Democrats appear once again to be the alternative. And so it goes... For Bernanke, the current financial system (or more to the point, the debt overhead) is to be saved so that the redistribution of wealth upward will continue...Meanwhile, the government is permitting corporate tollbooth to be erected across our economy -- and un-taxing this revenue so that it can be capitalized into financialized wealth paying only a 15 per cent tax rate on capital gains...Financial and fiscal policy thus reinforce each other in a way that polarizes the economy between the financial sector and the ``real'' economy.

Bernanke Disaster; DEBT peonage; Road.

The Economic Populist - Speak Your Mind 2 Cents at a Time Sun 2010-02-07 18:20 EST

Is Residential Real Estate a Ticking Time Bomb?

...First is the latest SIGTARP report saying the Government has become the mortgage market with U.S. taxpayers shouldering the risk. From the SIGTARP report we have a 100% government mortgage market at this point...Fannie and Freddie now have an unlimited bailout and it is estimated they have lost $400 billion dollars. The plan is to purchase $1.25 trillion mortgage backed securities from these two GSEs until the end of March...The number of homeowners who are strategically walking away from their mortgages is up to 10% this year...All of the above free money, the government pouring in trillions of dollars to prop up the housing market. Yet while price declines have slowed, prices are still declining and the above simply cannot go on forever. In fact one thing isn't going on forever. The Fed will stop buying MBSes at the end of March, 2010. So, when our government created illusion does pop, do we then have the real housing bubble implosion?

economic populist; Mind 2 Cents; residential real estate; speaking; ticking time bomb; Time.

zero hedge Fri 2010-01-15 17:46 EST

Is The Mysterious "Direct Bidder" Simply China Executing 'Quantitative Easing' On Behalf Of The Federal Reserve?

...we make the claim that the Fed has now informally offloaded the Treasury portion of Quantitative Easing to China, which does so via the elusive Direct Bid. It also explains why the Fed has generically been much less worried about TSY purchases under Q.E. (a mere $300 billion out of a total $1.7 trillion in monetization). It does beg the question of just how much Chinese holdings of US Debt truly are, as this number is likely hundreds of billions higher than the disclosed $799 billion...if there is indeed an implicit understanding between Bernanke and his Chinese colleagues, it means that not only the housing market (via Agency and MBS security purchases), but the Treasury market as well, are both manipulated beyond recognition and implies that broad securities are massively overvalued due to the stealth purchasing of core "riskless" assets by the US and China, as investors look higher in the cap structure for yield. Lastly, implications for world trade are great, as Asian countries will have to deal not only with the Chinese behemoth, which will constantly seek to keep its currency as low as possible, thus exacerbating the rest of Asia's foreign trade balances, but that of the US itself. The immediate implication is that China (or the US for that matter) will likely not reflate their currencies out of their own volition any time in the foreseeable future. Look for a much weaker dollar in the coming months.

behalf; Direct bidders; Federal Reserve; mysteriously; Quantitative Easing; Simply China Executing; Zero Hedge.

Tue 2009-12-01 22:52 EST

Harvard ignored warnings about investments - The Boston Globe

It happened at least once a year, every year. In a roomful of a dozen Harvard University financial officials, Jack Meyer, the hugely successful head of Harvard's endowment, and Lawrence Summers, then the school's president, would face off in a heated debate. The topic: cash and how the university was managing - or mismanaging - its basic operating funds. Through the first half of this decade, Meyer repeatedly warned Summers and other Harvard officials that the school was being too aggressive with billions of dollars in cash, according to people present for the discussions, investing almost all of it with the endowment's risky mix of stocks, bonds, hedge funds, and private equity. Meyer's successor, Mohamed El-Erian, would later sound the same warnings to Summers, and to Harvard financial staff and board members. ... But the warnings fell on deaf ears, under Summers's regime and beyond. And when the market crashed in the fall of 2008, Harvard would pay dearly, as $1.8 billion in cash simply vanished. Indeed, it is still paying, in the form of tighter budgets, deferred expansion plans, and big interest payments on bonds issued to cover the losses.

Boston Globe; Harvard ignored warnings; investment.

zero hedge Thu 2009-11-19 10:42 EST

Fannie Mae Seriously Delinquent Rate Hockeysticks to 4.45% From 1.57% In Prior Year

The FNM "seriously delinquent" rate has gone parabolic, increasing by roughly 5% sequentially and just under 300% YoY. As mere text will simply not do this metric justice, please enjoy this chart of the dataset from Blytic. It tells you all you need to know about the Fed's containment of the housing problem. The August seriously delinquent single-family number comprised of a 2.87% non-credit enhanced delinquencies and a very bothersome 11.52%, consisting of credit enhanced loans. The deterioration of FNM's book however did not stop it from increasing the size of its book. In September Fannie's total book of business hit $3.242 trillion, up from $3.229 trillion in August and $3.079 trillion in the prior year.

1; 4; 45; 57; Fannie Mae Seriously Delinquent Rate Hockeysticks; prior years; Zero Hedge.

naked capitalism Tue 2009-10-27 12:45 EDT

More on Banks Engaging in Mortgage Fraud

Hoisted from comments: I am a lawyer who has been involved in corporate finance for over 25 years...the securitization industry 5-10 years ago made a collective choice to ignore the terms of contracts, state and local laws and legal convesntions developed over hundreds of years. Why? Because they could. Our legal system and conventions were built on the assumption that most businesses would choose to follow them. Instead, the securitization industry simply developed a cost/benefit approach to following the law and adhering to contracts. It worked quite well becaseu most individuals just aren't equipped to read and enforce their mortgage agreements or fully understand the law.

banking engage; mortgage fraud; naked capitalism.

zero hedge Mon 2009-10-26 09:28 EDT

How The Federal Reserve Bailed Out The World

The Bank of International Settlements [BIS] just released a major paper titled "The US dollar shortage in global banking and the international policy response" which goes on to demonstrate just how it happened that Fed chief Ben Bernanke in essence bailed out the entire developed world, which was facing an unprecedented dollar shortage crisis due to the sudden implosion of FX swap lines and other mechanisms which until that point were critical in maintaining the dollar funding shortfall for virtually every foreign Central Bank...When the financial system almost imploded in the fall of 2008, one of the primary responses by the Federal Reserve was the issuance of an unprecedented amount of FX liquidity lines in the form of swaps to foreign Central Banks. The number went from practically zero to a peak of $582 billion on December 10, 2008. The number of swaps outstanding was almost directly inversely correlated with the value of the dollar...what happened is that short-term sources to sustain the massive dollar funding mismatch disappeared virtually overnight, and CBs were suddenly facing a toxic spiral of selling increasingly more worthless assets merely to satisfy currency funding needs in an environment where all of a sudden nobody was willing to provide FX swap lines...had the Fed not stepped in, the rest of the world...would have simply collapsed as the $6.5 trillion dollar funding gap closed in on itself, causing a indiscriminate selling off of all dollar denominated assets. The implosion of the basis trade would have seemed like a picnic compared to what was about to ensue had the Fed not stepped in to perpetuate the Fiat banking way of life.

Federal Reserve bail; world; Zero Hedge.

naked capitalism Fri 2009-10-23 09:20 EDT

Paul Volcker, Mervyn King, Glass Steagall, and the Real TBTF Problem

Paul Volcker wants to roll the clock back and restore Glass Steagall, the 1933 rule that separated commercial banking from investment banking, but Team Obama is politely ignoring him. Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank of England, is giving a more strident version of the same message...I think Volcker is wrong, but not for reasons one might expect...The problem is that we have had a thirty year growth in securitization. A lot of activities that were once done strictly on bank balance sheets are merely originated by banks and are sold into capital markets...you could in theory go back to having much more on balance sheet intermediation (finance speak for ``dial the clock back 35 years and have banks keep pretty much all their loans''). Conceptually, that is a tidy solution, but it has a massive flaw: it would take a simply enormous amount of equity to provide enough equity to all those banks with their vastly bigger balance sheets. We're having enough trouble recapitalizing the banking system we have...I have yet to see anything even remotely approaching a realistic discussion of how to deal with too big too fail firms, and we have been at this for months. My knowledge of the industry is not fully current, but even so, the difficulties are far greater than I have seen acknowledged anywhere. That pretty much guarantees none of the proposals are serious, and nothing will be done on this front. That further implies the system will have to break down catastrophically before anything effective can be done. I really hope I am wrong on this one.

Glass Steagall; Mervyn King; naked capitalism; Paul Volcker; Real TBTF Problem.