Jesse's Café Américain Tue 2010-03-09 17:51 EST

Russia Continues to Build Its Gold Reserves Ahead of the SDR Discussions

Jesse

Thanks to friend Dave at Golden Truth for this updated chart.As you know, Russia, India, China and some of the BRIC-like countries will continue to push hard for a gold and silver content in the new formulation of the SDR this year. The US and UK are vehemently opposed...One cannot have a common currency with uncommon fiscal policies and laws. While there is some room for discretion, it is sorely tried in changing economic conditions and social attitudes...This is why a one world currency, except for international trade only and at the discretion of trading partners, is so dangerous. One cannot maintain their sovereign freedom when someone else controls the supply of their money: either you cheat or you submit. All serious economists understand this; too few of the voting public do...This is the fallacy of the US dollar as the reserve currency for the world. It 'worked' as even Mr. Greenspan noted, as long as the US dollar was able to demonstrate the objective stability of an external gold standard relative to other currencies. That lasted for a few years, and the rest is foreign policy and currency wars. The time for its replacement is long past. The BRIC's understand this, and are playing their hands accordingly...

building; gold reserves; Jesse's Café Américain; Russia continues; SDR Discussions.

China Financial Markets Thu 2010-03-04 08:47 EST

Stuck in neutral -- what Japan's rebalancing can teach us

Michael Pettis

...A few days ago I read a good article (``Stuck on Neutral'') about Japan [from] the Economist...about Japan's post-1989 rebalancing, ...discusses why, in spite of every attempt, Japan has not been able supposedly to rebalance the economy and achieve any real growth during the two lost decades after 1990. Private consumption never took off to drive economic growth...After many years of excess investment driving growth, Japan's rebalancing process, which occurred after corporate, bank and government debt levels prevented the investment party from continuing, locked the country into many years of slow growth because it had to grind through years of debt-fueled overinvestment...it doesn't matter what individual policies we take to boost consumption if these polices don't in the aggregate represent a real transfer of income to the household sector, as they did not in Japan...Japan's experience suggests one of the risks China faces...Chinese household consumption will undoubtedly rise as a share of Chinese GDP over the next decade or two, but the process nonetheless can be disappointing for growth. It depends on lots of other moving parts, most importantly perhaps the change in investment and the speed with which income is transferred to households. And the change in investment might depend on debt capacity constraints and the extent of earlier overinvestment.

China Financial Markets; Japan's rebalancing; neutral; stuck; teach.

naked capitalism Sun 2010-02-28 13:13 EST

Das: Mark to Make Believe -- Still Toxic After All These Years!

Satyajit Das

n 2007, as the credit crisis commenced, paradoxically, nobody actually defaulted. Outside of sub-prime delinquencies, corporate defaults were at a record low. Instead, investors in high quality (AAA or AA) rated securities, that are unlikely to suffer real losses if held to maturity, faced paper -- mark-to-market (``MtM'') -- losses. In modern financial markets, market values drive asset values, profits and losses, risk calculations and the value of collateral supporting loans. Accounting standards, both in the U.S.A. and internationally, are now based on theoretically sound market values that are problematic in practice. The standards emerged from the past financial crisis where the use of ``historic cost'' accounting meant that losses on loans remained undisclosed because they continued to be carried at face value. The standards also reflect the fact that many modern financial instruments (such as derivatives) can only be accounted for in MtM framework. MtM accounting itself is flawed. There are difficulties in establishing real values of many instruments. It creates volatility in earnings attributable to inefficiencies in markets rather than real changes in financial position...

Das; Make-Believe; marked; naked capitalism; toxic; years.

naked capitalism Sun 2010-02-28 13:08 EST

Martin Wolf is Very Gloomy, and With Good Reason

Martin Wolf, the Financial Times' highly respected chief economics editor, weighs in with a pretty pessimistic piece tonight. This makes for a companion to Peter Boone and Simon Johnson's Doomsday cycle post from yesterday...With the private sector debt overhang as great as it is, I doubt there is a way out of our mess that does not involve a period of debt restructuring and writeoffs. That process, no matter how adeptly handled, results in dislocation and has a chilling effect on bystanders...Swedish Lex interestingly sees another possible brake that may become operative prior to another bubble/bust cycle. He believes that the EU has much less tolerance for underwriting zombie banks than the US. The EuroBanks have written off less in the way of losses than their US peers, are also exposed to any EU sovereign debt defaults, and yet the biggest are still crucial parts of the international capital markets infrastructure (and therefore still tightly coupled to the very biggest US/UK firms). While any EU sovereign debt defaults could morph into a full blown crisis, the EU responses to the joint sovereign/bank debt overhang could lead to more radical changes in EU banking rules and practices that could blow back to the very biggest US banks in unexpected ways.

gloomy; good reason; Martin Wolf; naked capitalism.

THE PRAGMATIC CAPITALIST Sat 2010-02-27 23:06 EST

THE MANY MYTHS OF WARREN BUFFETT

TPC

Warren Buffett is the most glorified and respected investor of all time. And rightfully so. After all, he became the world's wealthiest man by essentially picking stocks. But Warren Buffett...formed one of the original hedge funds (The Buffett Partnership Ltd) and used his gains to one day purchase Berkshire Hathaway. His evolution into the value investor we now think of today has been long in the making. Make no mistake, Buffett is a hedge fund manager. Yes, he comes from the ilk of the oft vilified and awful hedge fund clan. Today, he hides behind the curtain of incorporation, but in many ways Buffett hasn't changed one bit since his Partnership days...

myth; pragmatic capitalists; Warren Buffett.

Fri 2010-02-26 16:26 EST

Risk taking, regulatory capture and bailouts: The doomsday cycle | vox - Research-based policy analysis and commentary from leading economists

Peter Boone and Simon Johnson

Over the last three decades, the US financial system has tripled in size, as measured by total credit relative to GDP (see Figure 1). Each time the system runs into problems, the Federal Reserve quickly lowers interest rates to revive it. These crises appear to be getting worse and worse -- and their impact is increasingly global. Not only are interest rates near zero around the world, but many countries are on fiscal trajectories that require major changes to avoid eventual financial collapse. What will happen when the next shock hits? We believe we may be nearing the stage where the answer will be -- just as it was in the Great Depression -- a calamitous global collapse. The root problem is that we have let a `doomsday cycle' infiltrate our economic system...

Bailout; commentary; doomsday cycle; leading economists; regulatory capture; research-based policy analysis; risk take; Vox.

Fri 2010-02-12 21:31 EST

The Cash Committee: How Wall Street Wins On The Hill

Ryan Grim and Arthur Delaney

...In the fall of 2008, Democrats took the White House and expanded their congressional majorities as America struggled through a financial collapse wrought by years of deregulation. The public was furious. It seemed as if the banks and institutions that dragged the economy to the brink of disaster -- and were subsequently rescued by taxpayer funds -- would finally be forced to change their ways. But it's not happening. Financial regulation's long slog through Congress has left it riddled with loopholes, carved out at the request of the same industries that caused the mess in the first place. An outraged American public is proving no match for the mix of corporate money and influence that has been marshaled on behalf of the financial sector...

Cash Committee; Hill; Wall Street wins.

THE PRAGMATIC CAPITALIST Wed 2010-02-10 11:22 EST

AN INSIDER'S VIEW OF THE REAL ESTATE TRAIN WRECK

TPC

The first time I spoke with real estate entrepreneur Andy Miller was in late 2007, when I asked him to serve on the faculty of a Casey Research Summit...what most intrigued me about Andy was that he had been almost alone among his peer group in foreseeing the coming end of the real estate bubble, and in liquidating essentially all of his considerable portfolio of projects near the top...he remains deeply concerned about the outlook for real estate...the United States home mortgage market has been nationalized without anybody noticing...If government support goes away, and it will go away, where will that leave the home market? It leaves you with a catastrophe...eventually the bond market is going to gag on the government-sponsored paper...commercial properties are not performing and that values have gone down, although I've got to tell you, the denial is still widespread, particularly in the United States and on the part of lenders sitting on and servicing all these real estate portfolios...The current volume of defaults is already alarming. And the volume of commercial real estate defaults is growing every month...When you hit that breaking point, unless there's some alternative in place, it's going to be a very hideous picture for the bond market and the banking system...second quarter 2010 is a guess...the FDIC and the Treasury Department have decided that rather than see 1,000 or 2,000 banks go under and then create another RTC to sift through all the bad assets, they'll let the banking system warehouse the bad assets. Their plan is to leave the assets in place, and then, when the market changes, let the banks deal with them. Now, that's horribly destructive...it's exactly a Japanese-style solution...The entire U.S. residential mortgage market has in effect been nationalized, but there wasn't any act of Congress, no screaming and shouting, no headlines in the Wall Street Journal or the New York Times...That's a template for what they could do with the commercial loan market.

insider's view; pragmatic capitalists; Real Estate Train Wreck.

Sun 2010-02-07 10:10 EST

Web of Debt - THE BATTLE OF THE TITANS: JPMORGAN VS. GOLDMAN SACHS

Ellen Brown

The late Libertarian economist Murray Rothbard wrote that U.S. politics since 1900, when William Jennings Bryan narrowly lost the presidency, has been a struggle between two competing banking giants, the Morgans and the Rockefellers. The parties would sometimes change hands, but the puppeteers pulling the strings were always one of these two big-money players...In 2000, the Rockefellers and the Morgans joined forces, when JPMorgan and Chase Manhattan merged to become JPMorgan Chase Co. Today the battling banking titans are JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs, an investment bank that gained notoriety for its speculative practices in the 1920s...Goldman's superpower status comes from something more than just access to the money spigots of the banking system. It actually has the ability to manipulate markets...But Goldman Sachs has been caught in this blatant market manipulation so often that the JPMorgan faction of the banking empire has finally had enough.

battle; debt; Goldman Sachs; JPMorgan; titans; Web.

naked capitalism Fri 2010-02-05 11:06 EST

FDIC Proposes Tough-Minded Securitization Reforms; Industry Howls

...the FDIC presented a cogent and tough-minded plan for securtization reform at the American Securitization Forum...The driving element is that the FDIC is proposing to change the requirements for a securitization to be treated as a true sale, meaning that when the originator sells the mortgages to a securitization vehicle (say a trust), the investors in that vehicle cannot go back to the originator for recourse...The FDIC included various proposals to insure transparency for investors, including a requirement that all deals be arms length, to third party investors (no affiliates or insiders). They would exclude derivatives (excluding interest rate swaps) and would not permit re-securitizations...a clever effect of this proposal was that it solved the problem of ``what to do with rating agencies'' by making them irrelevant

FDIC Proposes Tough-Minded Securitization Reforms; Industry Howls; naked capitalism.

Culture of Life News Sun 2010-01-31 11:46 EST

US Dollar No Longer Main FOREX Currency

Elaine Supkis

A meteorite came crashing through the stratosphere on Tuesday. A reminder about what real danger is all about. The US dollar is breaking apart in the stratosphere, too. The FOREX holdings of all our major trade rivals is rapidly changing from sucking in US dollars to sucking in yen and euros. Both Japan and the EU hate this but can't stop it. As I predicted in July, 2007, the final result of the US, EU and Japan demanding China strengthen the yuan while not demanding Japan strengthen the yen, has led to this global shift in dollar holdings.

Culture; Dollar; Life News; Longer Main FOREX Currency.

zero hedge Fri 2010-01-29 16:36 EST

Guest Post: Government Spending, Bank Lending And Inflation

Submitted by Kletus Klump In his latest weekly commentary, Inflation Myth and Reality, Dr. John Hussman makes the argument that changes-in federal government spending dictate the future path of inflation. As shown below, his data set covers the period from 1951 through 2008 and there appears to be a decent correlation. However, his data set is incomplete in 2 respects: 1. It does not include the Great Depression years and 2. It does not include data on bank lending. The relationship between government spending and future inflation was vastly different during the years of 1932 to 1941. The correlation between the 2 series for this time period is negative 0.25. The factor causing this is change in mortgage-loan growth...fears of government-spending-induced extended inflation in terms of time and magnitude are not a concern until the lending mechanism improves.

bank lending; government spending; Guest Post; Inflation; Zero Hedge.

naked capitalism Wed 2010-01-13 11:54 EST

William Black'' ``Anti-Regulators: The Federal Reserve's War Against Effective Regulation''

...This essay focuses on Chairman Bernanke recent appointment of Dr. Parkinson to lead the Fed's examination and supervision. My central point is that Dr. Bernanke appointed Dr. Parkinson because he shared Dr. Bernanke's anti-regulatory ideology and has never changed those views, even in the face of the Great Recession. The anti-regulator policies that Bernanke and Parkinson championed were the principal drivers of the fraud epidemic that have produced recurrent, intensifying crises...First, Dr. Parkinson was a leading proponent of the obscene (and successful) effort to prevent Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chair Brooksley Born from taking regulatory action to prevent destructive credit default swaps (CDS). Second, Dr. Parkinson, like Greenspan and Bernanke, subscribed to the naïve view that fraud was impossible in sophisticated financial markets and that credit rating agencies were reliable. Third, Dr. Parkinson endorsed the international ``competition in regulatory laxity'' that Dr. Bernanke (belatedly) warned has degraded regulation on a global basis...

anti regulators; effectively regulated; Federal Reserve's War; naked capitalism; William Black.

Thu 2010-01-07 19:31 EST

Capital City | Mother Jones

Kevin Drum

A year after the biggest bailout in US history, Wall Street lobbyists don't just have influence in Washington. They own it lock, stock, and barrel...This is a story about politics. It's about how Congress and the president and the Federal Reserve were persuaded to let all this happen in the first place. In other words, it's about the finance lobby--the people who, as Sen. Dick Durbin [5] (D-Ill.) put it [6] last April, even after nearly destroying the world are "still the most powerful lobby on Capitol Hill. And they frankly own the place."...It's about the way that lobby--with the eager support of a resurgent conservative movement and a handful of powerful backers--was able to fundamentally change the way we think about the world. Call it a virus. Call it a meme. Call it the power of a big idea. Whatever you call it, for three decades they had us convinced that the success of the financial sector should be measured not by how well it provides financial services to actual consumers and corporations, but by how effectively financial firms make money for themselves. It sounds crazy when you put it that way, but stripped to its bones, that's what they pulled off.

capital city; Mother Jones.

Thu 2010-01-07 19:04 EST

Andy Xie: Why China and Japan Need an East Asia Bloc

By promoting ideas that lean toward Asia, DPJ's leadership is signaling that Japan wants less dependence on the United States. This position offers a hope for the future to Japanese people, whose economy has been comatose for two decades. Closer integration with Asian neighbors could restore growth in Japan...The best approach would be for China and Japan to negotiate a comprehensive FTA that encompasses free-flowing goods, services and capital. This task may appear too difficult, but recent changes have made it possible. The two countries should give it a try.

Andy Xie; China; East Asia Bloc; Japan needs.

naked capitalism Mon 2009-12-28 14:50 EST

A look back at the debate on the role of monetary and fiscal stimulus in depression

Edward Harrison

...regarding stimulus and the role of government in a debt-deflationary environment...does fiscal or monetary stimulus work?...the real debate about whether or not to try fiscal stimulus revolves around the role of government and its limitations. Ideologues on one side see government as a parasite which interferes with the free market. On the other side, ideologues see government as the only way out of a crisis of this magnitude. The key sticking point is not just the size of government, but also its effectiveness -- the political will to effect change rather than to favor constituents...So, how has this worked out in practice? Not so well.

Debate; Depression; fiscal stimulus; looking; Monetary; naked capitalism; role.