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Institutional Topic in The Credit Debacle Catalog

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New Deal 2.0 Tue 2009-11-03 20:07 EST

Roosevelt Institute Director and Senior Fellow Rob Johnson will lead Soros' $50 Million Effort

Rob Johnson, Director of the Economic Policy Initiative of the Roosevelt Institute, has been pegged to lead financier George Soros' $50 million effort to create an ``Institute for New Economic Thinking'', which will fund research, convene symposiums, and establish a journal -- all in the name of promoting free market skeptics and creating a new economic paradigm. To this end Soros is gathering market-skeptics this week, including Roosevelt Institute Braintruster and Nobel Prize-winner Joseph Stiglitz, George Akerlof, Michael Spence, and Sir James Mirrlees to start the conversation. ``Economics has failed not only to predict and explain what happened but has also failed to protect society,'' said Johnson in an article in Newsweek. ``That's what the crisis revealed. The paradigm has failed. There is no guidance.''

0; 50; effort; lead Soros; new dealing 2; Roosevelt Institute Director; Senior Fellow Rob Johnson.

zero hedge Tue 2009-11-03 19:57 EST

Guest Post: Systemic Risk is All About Innovation and Incentives: Ed Kane

...we present the views of our friend and mentor Ed Kane of Boston College, who argues that the problem with the financial regulatory framework is not the law, regulation nor even the regulators, but rather the confluence of poorly aligned incentives and financial innovation... The financial crisis of 2007-2009 is the product of a regulation-induced short-cutting and near elimination of private counterparty incentives to perform adequate due diligence along the chain of transactions traversed in securitizing and re-securitizing risky loans (Kane, 2009a). The GLBA [Gramm-Leach-Bliley Financial Modernization Act of 1999] did make it easier for institutions to make themselves more difficult to fail and unwind. But it did not cause due-diligence incentives to break down in lending and securitization, nor did it cause borrowers and lenders to overleverage themselves. Still, the three phenomena share a common cause. Excessive risk-taking, regulation-induced innovation, and the lobbying pressure that led to the GLBA trace to subsidies to risk-taking that are protected by the political and economic challenges of monitoring and policing the safety-net consequences of regulation-induced innovation. These challenges and the limited liability that their stockholders and counterparties enjoy make it easy for clever managers of large institutions to extract implicit subsidies to leveraged risk-taking from national safety nets (Kane, 2009b)...To reduce the threat of future crises, the pressing task is not to rework bureaucratic patterns of financial regulation, but to repair defects in the incentive structure under which private and government supervisors manage a nation's financial safety net.

Ed Kane; Guest Post; incentives; innovation; systemic risk; Zero Hedge.

Tue 2009-10-27 13:03 EDT

`We still have the same disease' - The Globe and Mail

On anniversary of Lehman collapse, author of The Black Swan can say 'I told you so'...Nassim Nicholas Taleb: Central bankers have no clue. In the first place, the financial crisis was not a black swan. It was perfectly predictable. They ignored the phenomenal buildup in leverage since 1980. They acted like airline pilots who'd never heard of hurricanes. After finishing The Black Swan, I realized there was a cancer. The cancer was a huge buildup of risk-taking based on the lack of understanding of reality. The second problem is the hidden risk with new financial products. And the third is the interdependence among financial institutions.

disease; globe; mail.

Tue 2009-10-27 12:58 EDT

Looting: The Economic Underworld of Bankruptcy for Profit by George Akerlof, Paul Romer

During the 1980s, a number of unusual financial crises occurred. In Chile, for example, the financial sector collapsed, leaving the government with responsibility for extensive foreign debts. In the United States, large numbers of government-insured savings and loans became insolvent - and the government picked up the tab. In Dallas, Texas, real estate prices and construction continued to boom even after vacancies had skyrocketed, and the suffered a dramatic collapse. Also in the United States, the junk bond market, which fueled the takeover wave, had a similar boom and bust. In this paper, we use simple theory and direct evidence to highlight a common thread that runs through these four episodes. The theory suggests that this common thread may be relevant to other cases in which countries took on excessive foreign debt, governments had to bail out insolvent financial institutions, real estate prices increased dramatically and then fell, or new financial markets experienced a boom and bust. We describe the evidence, however, only for the cases of financial crisis in Chile, the thrift crisis in the United States, Dallas real estate and thrifts, and junk bonds. Our theoretical analysis shows that an economic underground can come to life if firms have an incentive to go broke for profit at society's expense (to loot) instead of to go for broke (to gamble on success). Bankruptcy for profit will occur if poor accounting, lax regulation, or low penalties for abuse give owners an incentive to pay themselves more than their firms are worth and then default on their debt obligations.

bankruptcy; Economic Underworld; George Akerlof; Looting; Paul Romer; profits.

naked capitalism Tue 2009-10-27 12:18 EDT

Guest Post: Capitalism, Socialism or Fascism?

What is the current American economy: capitalism, socialism or fascism? ...Nouriel Roubini writes ``We're essentially continuing a system where profits are privatized and...losses socialized.'' Nassim Nicholas Taleb says ``the government is socializing all these losses by transforming them into liabilities for your children and grandchildren and great-grandchildren.'' Nobel prize winning economist Joseph Stiglitz calls it ``socialism for the rich'' ...leading journalist Robert Scheer writes: ``What is proposed is not the nationalization of private corporations but rather a corporate takeover of government. The marriage of highly concentrated corporate power with an authoritarian state that services the politico-economic elite at the expense of the people is more accurately referred to as ``financial fascism'''' ...Italian historian Gaetano Salvemini argued in 1936 that fascism makes taxpayers responsible to private enterprise, because ``the State pays for the blunders of private enterprise... Profit is private and individual. Loss is public and social'' ...one of the best definitions of fascism -- the one used by Mussolini -- is the ``merger of state and corporate power`` ...Nobel prize-winning economist George Akerlof co-wrote a paper in 1993 describing the causes of the S&L crisis and other financial meltdowns...[Looting is the] common thread [when] countries took on excessive foreign debt, governments had to bail out insolvent financial institutions, real estate prices increased dramatically and then fell, or new financial markets experienced a boom and bust...Our theoretical analysis shows that an economic underground can come to life if firms have an incentive to go broke for profit at society's expense (to loot) instead of to go for broke (to gamble on success). Bankruptcy for profit will occur if poor accounting, lax regulation, or low penalties for abuse give owners an incentive to pay themselves more than their firms are worth and then default on their debt obligations ...Whether we use the terminology regarding socialism-for-the-giants (''socialized losses''), of fascism (''public and social losses''), or of looting (''left the government holding the bag for their eventual and predictable losses''), it amounts to the exact same thing. [kleptocracy] Great comments, including Joseph: Three core ideas characterize the myth of our society: 1. Free market; 2. Capitalism; 3. Democracy. The conceptual error that people make is to think that they are compatible, or indeed represent aspect of the same thing. In fact they are all deeply antagonistic towards each other. It is the miracle of post-war society that we managed to hold them in balance for so long. That balance has now been destroyed. A simple example of the contradiction, and the one that the over-socialised right finds most confusing, is the contradiction between capitalism and the market. Capitalism is a system of ownership; the market is a system of distribution. The perfect world for the capitalist is one in which they are price setters in terms of the commodities they produce and labour they employ -- ie a state of monopoly. Each individual capitalist seeks the destruction of the market. What has occurred over the past year is not corruption; it is the triumph of capitalism. The market and democracy have been defeated. Not socialism, not fascism,...

capitalism; Fascism; Guest Post; naked capitalism; social.

Jesse's Café Américain Mon 2009-10-26 09:52 EDT

The US Power Elite: An Alliance of Convenience or a Ménage à Trois?

"I submit that our spendthrift government, the Federal Reserve System and the TBTF banks together now comprise the paramount political tendency in America today. This tripartite "Alliance of Convenience," let's not call it a conspiracy, fits beautifully into the corporatist mold that seems to be America in the 21st Century - but only viewed by the elites in cities like New York and Washington. Many Americans of all political descriptions oppose this corrupt and unaccountable political formulation." Chris Whalen, Institutional Risk Analytics

alliance; convenience; Jesse's Café Américain; Ménage à Trois; power elites.

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Fri 2009-10-23 08:47 EDT

Where The Hell Is The Outrage?

The number of articles and opinions on Goldman Sachs earnings, bonuses, and influence pedaling over the past several days is quite stunning. Many have pointed out the problems; few have expressed outrage over what is happening in general, not just at Goldman Sachs... I am outraged and not just about Goldman Sachs, but about a process that allows, even encourages political pandering, by time and time again rewarding leveraged riverboat gamblers and failed institutions and at taxpayer expense...

hell; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis; Outrage.

The Guardian World News Mon 2009-10-12 10:02 EDT

Ex-Wall Street financiers face criminal action

Former Bear Stearns hedge fund manager Matthew Tannin's private jottings show concerns about 'blow up risk' to investors...Tannin and his boss, Ralph Cioffi, ran two funds holding $1.4bn of clients' funds that collapsed in July 2007, an event widely viewed as the first clear signal of America's sub-prime mortgage crisis and the global credit crunch. The meltdown of these funds sparked a chain of events that contributed to the demise of Bear Stearns, an 85-year-old Wall Street institution, in early 2008. They have been charged by US prosecutors with defrauding customers by hiding the true condition of investments as prospects steadily darkened.

Ex-Wall Street financiers face criminal action; Guardian World News.

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Mon 2009-10-12 09:22 EDT

One Hand Clapping Theory Analyzed

Numerous people have asked me to comment on Chris Martenson's article The Sound of One Hand Clapping - What Deflationists May Be Missing. Chris Writes: ...``Trillions in probable and provable losses quietly exist, out of sight, on the balance sheets of the Federal Reserve and other financial institutions. If they ever come out of hiding and onto the books, I think the deflationists will be proven correct beyond all doubt. But let me ask this: What prevents the authorities from simply storing them out of sight forever?...I am now wondering if they cannot keep this up indefinitely.'' ...In a credit based economy, the odds of a sustainable rebound without bank credit expanding, and consumers participating is not very good. Even if one mistakenly assumes that the recent rally is a result of pretending, should we count on sustained success now more so than a measurement of stock prices in April of 1930, or any of Japans' four 50% rallies? I think not. Pretending cannot accomplish much other than prolonging the agony for decades. This is the message of Japan. Moreover, the US is arguably is worse shape than Japan because our problems are unsustainable consumer debt, high unemployment, and massive retail sector overcapacity. Those are structural problems that no amount of pretending in the world can possibly cure. In due time, the market will focus on those problems.

hand clapping theory analyzed; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis.

The Economic Populist - Speak Your Mind 2 Cents at a Time Sat 2009-10-10 12:53 EDT

Proposal: A New Mortgage Finance System

Our mortgage finance system is broken. It needs some serious restructuring or a complete overhaul. We can learn a lot about a new structure from the Danes. The Danish mortgage system is one of the oldest and most sophisticated housing finance markets in the world...Danish mortgage system is a pass-through system that allows mortgage borrowers to benefit from close to capital market financing conditions. In the Danish system, borrower/homeowner don't obtain a mortgage from a mortgage loan originator such as a bank or mortgage lender. They borrow from investors in a transparent and standardized bond market through a mortgage credit institution (MCI). MCI issues bonds in the bond market that match as much as possible the amount and maturity of the borrower's mortgage. The beauty of this system is that a mortgage is exactly matched and balanced with an actively traded bond. MCIs play the vital roles of advisors to the borrower/homeowner and bearer of the credit risk of the mortgage -- they remain ``on the hook'' in the event of delinquency or default. They are mortgage credit insurers. The MCI originator bears full responsibility for timely payments from the borrower/homeowner. So, MCI has an incentive to make sure borrower/homeowners obtain a mortgage loan that is affordable for that family. Meanwhile, bond investors worry about only interest rate risk, with complete insurance on the mortgage that backs the their bond investment. This makes for a highly efficient system.

economic populist; Mind 2 Cents; New Mortgage Finance System; proposed; speaking; Time.

The Realignment Project Tue 2009-09-22 09:00 EDT

Public Virtues -- Part 3 (Institutional Continuity)

...all companies have to focus on the short-term. But the same is not true for the public sector....public institutions are not bound by the business cycle...government can act as the ultimate venture capitalist, making investments that might not pay off for decades to come, and it's a role that only the public sector can play...American governments at all levels have enjoyed huge success as extreme long-term venture capitalists in infrastructure and technology.

Institutional continues; Part 3; public virtues; Realignment Project.

Mon 2009-09-21 13:47 EDT

The Hole in the FDIC

This week we continue to look at what powers the forces of deflation...This week we look at one more factor: bank lending. I give you a sneak preview of what will be an explosive report from Institutional Risk Analytics about the problems in the banking sector. Are you ready for the FDIC to be down as much as $400 billion?

FDIC; holes.

The IRA Analyst Sun 2009-09-13 12:14 EDT

House Testimony: The Trouble With Models Starts With Subjectivity

...we have now many examples where a model or the pretense of a model was used as a vehicle for creating risk and hiding it. More important, however, is the role of financial models for creating opportunities for deliberate acts of securities fraud..the widespread use of [VaR] statistical models for risk management suggest that financial institutions are subject to occasional "Black Swans" in the form of risk events that cannot be anticipated...We don't actually believe there is such a thing as a "Black Swan."...leaders in finance and politics simply made the mistake of, again, believing in what were in fact flawed models...Or worse, our leaders in Washington and on Wall Street decided to be short sighted and not care about the inevitable debacle...We need to simply ensure that all of the financial instruments in our marketplace have an objective basis, including a visible, cash basis market that is visible to all market participants. If investors cannot price a security without reference to subjective models, then the security should be banned from the US markets as a matter of law and regulation. To do otherwise is to adopt deception as the public policy goal of the US when it comes to financial markets regulation.

House testimony; IRA Analyst; models starting; subject; Troubles.

Credit Writedowns Thu 2009-09-03 11:38 EDT

Sheila Bair and the case against a super-regulator

There is an effort underway to install the Federal Reserve as super-regulator for all banks and financial institutions, concentrating power in one institution. I find these efforts one of the most disturbing outgrowths of the financial crisis we have been witnessing...better to enforce the rules and regulations that are currently on the books than to build in a whole new super-structure.

Case; credit writedowns; Sheila Bair; Super-Regulator.

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Sun 2009-08-30 12:03 EDT

Greater Than One in Four FDIC Insured Institutions are Unprofitable; Bank Problem List at 15 Year High

The second quarter 2009 Quarterly Banking Profile has some interesting charts and facts that inquiring minds will be interested in.Insured Institution Performance Higher Loss Provisions Lead to a $3.7 Billion Net LossMore Than One in Four Institutions Are UnprofitableCharge-Offs and Noncurrent Loans Continue to RiseNet Interest Margins Show Modest ImprovementIndustry Assets Decline by $238 BillionThe Industry Posts a Net Loss for the Quarter The Industry Posts a Net Loss for the Quarter Burdened by costs associated with rising levels of troubled loans and falling asset values, FDIC-insured commercial banks and savings institutions reported an aggregate net loss of $3.7 billion in the second quarter of 2009. Increased expenses for bad loans were chiefly responsible for the industry's loss. Insured institutions added $66.9 billion in loan-loss provisions to their reserves... ``Conventional wisdom regarding money supply suggests there is massive pent up inflation in the works as a result of the buildup of excess reserves...The reality is excessive debt and falling asset prices have rendered the best efforts of the Fed impotent. Banks are not well capitalized, they are insolvent, unwilling and unable to lend.''

15-year high; Bank problem listings; FDIC insured institutions; greater; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis; unprofitable.

The IRA Analyst Wed 2009-08-26 15:50 EDT

Washington Fiddles as Global Deflation Rages

The surprise facing Geithner, Bernanke et al is that by Q3, the true economic deterioration in many toxic assets will be clear for all to see. ``whatever relief that financial institutions and other residents of the hold-to-maturity world believe that they will receive through the modification of fair-value accounting and other official dispensation, they will lose through deteriorating economic fundamentals and falling cash flows supporting these assets as 2009 unfolds.''

Global Deflation Rages; IRA Analyst; Washington fiddles.

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