naked capitalism Sun 2010-01-03 10:58 EST

On Goldman's (and Now Morgan Stanley's) Deceptive Synthetic CDO Practices (aka Screwing Their Customers)

Goldman is trying to diffuse the increasingly harsh light being turned on its dubious practices in the collateralized debt obligation market, with the wattage turned up considerably last week by a story in the New York Times that described how a synthetic CDO program called Abacus was the means by which Goldman famously went ``net short'' subprime....Goldman wanted its Abacus trades to fail. That was the most profitable course of action for them (note the Times clearly states that that was the role of the Abacus trades and Goldman has not disputed that claim). They were net short, this was no mere hedge of a long position but a trading bet. And those CDOs did turn out to be big turkeys...

aka Screwing; customer; Deceptive Synthetic CDO Practices; Goldman's; Morgan Stanley's; naked capitalism.

naked capitalism Mon 2009-12-28 16:40 EST

Will Continued Stealth Bailout of Housing Produce Unwanted Side Effects?

The Treasury Department...considerably increased its Freddie and Fannie safety net, by removing all limits on the amounts on offer (an increase from a ceiling of $400 billion) and simultaneously allowing the two GSEs to increase their balance sheets near term. Previously, they had been required to shrink their portfolios by 10% per annum; now it is their ceiling which will be lowered by 10% a year, and that ceiling is much higher than their current exposures ($900 billion versus roughly $760 billion for Freddie and $770 billion for Fannie as of the end of November)...So one has to conclude that the agencies might well (ahem, are likely to) throw their firepower behind the ``prop up the mortgage market'' program, particularly with Obama's ratings plunging and mid-term elections coming this year. But if this comes to pass, what might the collateral damage be?

Continued Stealth Bailout; Housing Produce Unwanted Side Effects; naked capitalism.

Jesse's Café Américain Thu 2009-12-17 10:11 EST

Is the Price of World Silver the Result of Legitimate Market Discovery?

Jesse

Ted Butler: ...the concentrated short position in COMEX silver futures is so extreme, that it is hard to imagine how it can be resolved in an orderly manner. The most recent data from the CFTC indicate that one US bank, JPMorgan, now holds 200 million ounces net short in COMEX silver futures, fully 40% of the entire net short position on the COMEX (minus spreads). As I have previously written, JPMorgan accounted for 100% of all new short selling in COMEX silver futures for September and October, some 50 million additional ounces...So extreme is JPMorgan's silver short position that it cannot be closed out in an orderly fashion...As extreme as JPMorgan's position is, there is a total true net short position of 500 million ounces (100,000 contracts) in COMEX silver futures. Try to put that 500 million ounce short position in perspective. It equals 75% of world annual mine production, much higher than seen in any other commodity.

Jesse's Café Américain; Legitimate Market Discovery; Price; resulting; World Silver.

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Wed 2009-11-25 12:05 EST

What Is Inflation and How Does One Measure It?

Michael Shedlock

...Inflation is a net expansion of money supply and credit, where credit is marked to market. Deflation is the opposite: a net contraction of money supply and credit, where credit is marked to market...Credit (and credit problems) dwarf monetary concerns at the present...I still expect the US to slip in and out of deflation and recession for years to come just as happened in Japan...banks aren't lending, consumer credit is contracting, credit writeoffs are likely to exceed monetary printing, and symptoms like treasury yields are in generally in agreement...To bail out the banks' poor bets on Dot-Com companies and Latin America in 2001-2002, Greenspan purposely ignited a credit bubble that led to the mother of all housing crashes. In response to the housing bust, the Fed refused to let failed banks go out of business and is attempting to force another credit bubble...However, this is the end of the line. Housing was the bubble of last resort, nothing can come close to the number of jobs created by the global housing bubble. Further attempts to reflate will do nothing but create a currency crisis, crash the economy, and add to future liabilities that cannot be paid back.

Inflation; measured; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis.

Calculated Risk Wed 2009-11-25 11:38 EST

Fannie Mae: $18.9 Billion Loss, Requests Another $15 Billion

CalculatedRisk

Press Release: Fannie Mae Reports Third-Quarter 2009 Results Fannie Mae (FNM/NYSE) reported a net loss of $18.9 billion in the third quarter of 2009, compared with a loss of $14.8 billion in the second quarter of 2009. ... Third-quarter results were largely due to $22.0 billion of credit related expenses, reflecting the continued build of the company's combined loss reserves and fair value losses associated with the increasing number of loans that were acquired from mortgage backed securities trusts in order to pursue loan modifications. ... As a result, on November 4, 2009, the Acting Director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) submitted a request for $15.0 billion from Treasury on the company's behalf.

15; 18; 9; Calculated Risk; Fannie Mae; losses; requesting.

Bruce Krasting Thu 2009-11-19 10:52 EST

FHFA's DeMarco Speaks - Ouch!

Bruce Krasting

FHFA's Acting Director Edward DeMarco provided written testimony to the Senate today. I would give his presentation a B+. There is little room for optimism in this story. Mr. DeMarco did not gloss that fact over. A few snips from that speech: -From July 2007 through the first half of 2009--combined losses at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac totaled $165 billion. In the first half of 2009, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac together reported net losses of $47 billion. -Since the establishment of the conservatorships, the combined losses at the two Enterprises depleted all their capital and required them to draw $96 billion. The combined support from the federal government exceeds $1 trillion. -The short-term outlook for the Enterprises remains troubled and likely will require additional draws...

Bruce Krasting; FHFA's DeMarco Speaks; Ouch.

zero hedge Tue 2009-11-03 19:57 EST

Guest Post: Systemic Risk is All About Innovation and Incentives: Ed Kane

Edward J. Kane vi Chris Whalen

...we present the views of our friend and mentor Ed Kane of Boston College, who argues that the problem with the financial regulatory framework is not the law, regulation nor even the regulators, but rather the confluence of poorly aligned incentives and financial innovation... The financial crisis of 2007-2009 is the product of a regulation-induced short-cutting and near elimination of private counterparty incentives to perform adequate due diligence along the chain of transactions traversed in securitizing and re-securitizing risky loans (Kane, 2009a). The GLBA [Gramm-Leach-Bliley Financial Modernization Act of 1999] did make it easier for institutions to make themselves more difficult to fail and unwind. But it did not cause due-diligence incentives to break down in lending and securitization, nor did it cause borrowers and lenders to overleverage themselves. Still, the three phenomena share a common cause. Excessive risk-taking, regulation-induced innovation, and the lobbying pressure that led to the GLBA trace to subsidies to risk-taking that are protected by the political and economic challenges of monitoring and policing the safety-net consequences of regulation-induced innovation. These challenges and the limited liability that their stockholders and counterparties enjoy make it easy for clever managers of large institutions to extract implicit subsidies to leveraged risk-taking from national safety nets (Kane, 2009b)...To reduce the threat of future crises, the pressing task is not to rework bureaucratic patterns of financial regulation, but to repair defects in the incentive structure under which private and government supervisors manage a nation's financial safety net.

Ed Kane; Guest Post; incentives; innovation; systemic risk; Zero Hedge.

Jesse's Café Américain Mon 2009-10-26 09:51 EDT

Trend Change: Official Purchases from Central Banks Supporting Gold Price

Jesse

Starting in 1989, the world's Central Banks became steady net sellers of their gold reserves which had been accumulated over the years...And now for something completely different, it appears that the world's central banks may once again become net buyers of gold, after a twenty year campaign of selling gold from their vaults into the public markets, creating a steady downward pressure on the price of gold, that contributed to its long bear market.

Central Banks Supporting Gold Price; Jesse's Café Américain; officially Purchase; trend change.

Bruce Krasting Sat 2009-10-10 12:57 EDT

FHFA's DeMarco Speaks

Bruce Krasting

FHFA's Acting Director Edward DeMarco provided written testimony to the Senate today...From July 2007 through the first half of 2009--combined losses at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac totaled $165 billion. In the first half of 2009, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac together reported net losses of $47 billion. Since the establishment of the conservatorships, the combined losses at the two Enterprises depleted all their capital and required them to draw $96 billion. The combined support from the federal government exceeds $1 trillion. The short-term outlook for the Enterprises remains troubled and likely will require additional draws...

Bruce Krasting; FHFA's DeMarco Speaks.

The Wall Street Examiner Tue 2009-10-06 09:27 EDT

From Black Scholes to Black Holes (part 4- Finance)

...the problems associated with mortgage finance pale in comparison to those associated with derivatives. Warren Buffett famously called these securities financial weapons of mass destruction, but I think he understated the problem. These securities are far worse- a Ponzi scheme even Carlo wouldn't have dreamed of. We can choose to fire a WMD, but these securities have taken on a life of their own and they will, in my view, drag everything financially tied to them into oblivion- into a black hole...In the end the remaining banks will merge into one and money, instead of light, would never be able to escape as the fallacy of netting benefits- the assumption that they are all similarly valued- is exposed.

Black Holes; Black Scholes; finance; Part 4; Wall Street Examiner.

zero hedge Mon 2009-09-21 15:41 EDT

Federal Reserve Accounts For 50% Of Q2 Treasury Purchases

The degree of intermediation by the Federal Reserve in the issuance of US Treasuries hit a record in Q2, accounting for just under 50% of all net UST issuance absorption. This is a startling number, as the Fed's $164 billion in Q2 Treasury purchases dwarfs the combined foreign/household UST purchases of $101 billion and $29 billion, respectively, over the same time period. In fact, the Fed was a greater factor in UST demand than all three traditional players combined: Foreigners, Households and Primary Dealers, which amounted to a $158 billion in net Q2 purchases. This dramatic imbalance puts a lot of question marks over how the upcoming hundreds of billions in incremental Treasury purchases will be soaked up, now that QE only has $15 billion of capacity for USTs...

50; Federal Reserve Accountable; Q2 Treasury Purchases; Zero Hedge.

The Economic Populist - Speak Your Mind 2 Cents at a Time Mon 2009-09-21 14:33 EDT

Fed accounts for 50% of treasury purchases

There once was a time when the Federal Reserve abhorred the idea of monetizing debt. That day is long over. In the second quarter, the most recent for which data is available, the Fed bought $164 billion out of the $339 billion in net new Treasurys sold. In the mortgage-backed debt markets, the Fed has been buying upward of 80% of the bonds issued by agencies such as Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. ZeroHedge helps to put this number into perspective: the Fed was a greater factor in UST demand than all three traditional players combined: Foreigners, Households and Primary Dealers, which amounted to a $158 billion in net Q2 purchases.

50; economic populist; Fed Accountable; Mind 2 Cents; speaking; Time; Treasury purchases.

Bruce Krasting Sat 2009-09-12 12:10 EDT

SSTF Shocker - $6B August Deficit

Bruce Krasting

The Social Security Trust Fund reported an August net deficit of $5.865 Billion. This is the largest monthly deficit in nineteen years...This deficit is now the seventh in the past twelve months. That pace has never been seen before...Social Security is the mother of all systemic risks. Even the debate on this topic brings risk. It will expose an additional $7 trillion unfunded liability. Another reason for holders of dollars to worry.

6B August Deficit; Bruce Krasting; SSTF Shocker.

Minyanville Sat 2009-09-05 11:47 EDT

Why Hanging On to UNG Is Risky Business

People have been up in arms for months now about the troubles at the United States Natural Gas Fund LP (UNG) the ETF designed to track the price of natural gas. And as far as I can tell rightly so. ETFs were meant to be a nearly frictionless relatively simple alternative to the clunky closed-end funds (CEFs) and managed products that our parents and grandparents had to contend with. But UNG recently traded at a 19% premium to its net asset value (NAV) -- behavior far more fitting a CEF...But since hand-wringing over UNG seems to be the consensus approach, here's a contrarian thought: UNG has, to date, tracked natural gas futures (NG) fairly well.

hang; Minyanville; Risky Business; UNG.

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Sun 2009-08-30 12:03 EDT

Greater Than One in Four FDIC Insured Institutions are Unprofitable; Bank Problem List at 15 Year High

Michael Shedlock

The second quarter 2009 Quarterly Banking Profile has some interesting charts and facts that inquiring minds will be interested in.Insured Institution Performance Higher Loss Provisions Lead to a $3.7 Billion Net LossMore Than One in Four Institutions Are UnprofitableCharge-Offs and Noncurrent Loans Continue to RiseNet Interest Margins Show Modest ImprovementIndustry Assets Decline by $238 BillionThe Industry Posts a Net Loss for the Quarter The Industry Posts a Net Loss for the Quarter Burdened by costs associated with rising levels of troubled loans and falling asset values, FDIC-insured commercial banks and savings institutions reported an aggregate net loss of $3.7 billion in the second quarter of 2009. Increased expenses for bad loans were chiefly responsible for the industry's loss. Insured institutions added $66.9 billion in loan-loss provisions to their reserves... ``Conventional wisdom regarding money supply suggests there is massive pent up inflation in the works as a result of the buildup of excess reserves...The reality is excessive debt and falling asset prices have rendered the best efforts of the Fed impotent. Banks are not well capitalized, they are insolvent, unwilling and unable to lend.''

15-year high; Bank problem listings; FDIC insured institutions; greater; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis; unprofitable.

naked capitalism Wed 2009-08-26 16:18 EDT

Guest Post: A Plunge in Foreign Net Capital Inflows Preceded the Break in US Financial Markets

Jesse

Served by Jesse of Le Café Américain The peak of foreign capital inflows into the US was clearly seen in the second quarter of 2007, just before the crisis in the US that has rocked its banking system and driven it deeply into recession. Are the two events connected? Had the US become a Ponzi scheme that began to collapse when new investment began to wane, and the growth of returns could not be maintained? Watch the dollar and the Treasury and Agency Debt auctions for any further signs of capital flight, which is when those net inflows of foreign capital turn negative. And if for some reason the unlikely happens and it gains momentum, the dollar and bonds and stocks can all go lower in unison, and there...

break; financial market; Foreign Net Capital Inflows Preceded; Guest Post; naked capitalism; plunge.