zero hedge - on a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero Sat 2010-09-25 09:47 EDT

Chris Whalen On The Upcoming "Worst Economic Contraction Since WWI (Forget WWII)"

Chris Whalen at Institutional Risk Analytics

The erosion of the profitability of the U.S. banking industry over the past two years under the glorious Summers-Geithner-Bernanke rescue scheme is the proverbial fly in the ointment for both major political parties. Democrats and republicans alike are going to be fed into the meat grinder over the next several years as the banking sector deals with literally hundreds of billions of dollars in direct and indirect expenses from the deflation of the mortgage bubble. For the economy, this slow process of muddle along championed by Summers and Geithner will ensure that Barack Obama becomes the Herbert Hoover of the Democratic Party. The economic carnage that will causes these losses, as we described in a recent post in Reuters, "Double Dip or Global Deflation?," is going to represent the worst economic contraction since WWI. Forget WWII. Think "shrinkage" to use the Gilded Age description for economic deflation. And frankly nothing that either the Fed or Treasury does in the near-term can change this basic economic fact of restructuring...the economic situation at BAC and among all of the legacy zombie banks continues to worsen. No amount of bullshit from Washington changes the fundamental economic situation inside the largest U.S. lenders.

Chris Whalen; dropped; Forget WWII; long; survival rate; Timeline; upcoming; worst economic contraction; WWI; zero; Zero Hedge.

Jesse's Café Américain Mon 2010-08-16 16:09 EDT

Chris Whalen: Nothing Has Changed Because It's The Fraud and Corruption, Stupid

Jesse

...The dirty little secret of the Dodd-Frank legislation is that by failing to curtail the worst abuses of the OTC market in structured assets and derivatives, a financial ghetto that even today remains virtually unregulated, the Congress and the Fed are effectively even encouraging securities firms to act as de facto exchanges and thereby commit financial fraud. Allowing securities firms to originate complex structured securities without requiring SEC registration is a vast loophole that Senator Christopher Dodd (D-CT) and Rep. Barney Frank (D-MA) deliberately left open for their campaign contributors on Wall Street. But it must be noted these same firms have a captive, client relationship with the Fed and other regulators as well, thus a love triangle may be the most apt metaphor...a recent key supervisory officer appointment by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY)...choice of Sarah Dahlgren as Head of Supervision...Ms Dahlgren has been at the center of many of the Federal Reserve's most embarrassing failures in the area of bank supervision and in particular with respect to the failure of American International Group (AIG)...

change because; Chris Whalen; corruption; fraud; Jesse's Café Américain; Stupid.

Sun 2010-05-09 09:18 EDT

Why Do Senators Corker And Dodd Really Think We Need Big Banks? >> The Baseline Scenario

Simon Johnson

On Friday, Senator Bob Corker (R, TN) took to the Senate floor to rebut critics of big banks. His language was not entirely senatorial: ``I hope we'll all come to our senses'', while listing the reasons we need big banks. And Senator Chris Dodd (D, CT) rose to agree that (in Corker's words) reducing the size of our largest banks would be ``cutting our nose off to spite our face'' and that by taking on Wall Street, ``we may be taking on the heartland.'' Unfortunately, all of their arguments in favor of our largest banks remaining at or near (or above) their current scale are completely at odds with the facts (e.g., as documented in our book, 13 Bankers). ...As for why exactly Senators Corker and Dodd really support big banks, it seems increasingly likely that this is all about campaign contributions.

Baseline Scenario; Dodd Really Think; Needs Big Banks; Senator Corker.

Jesse's Café Américain Mon 2010-04-19 18:34 EDT

Goldman Sachs: A Pattern of Organized Criminal Behaviour?

Jesse

Chris Whalen provides some excellent commentary on the Goldman Sachs fraud inquiry by the SEC at the beginning of his weekly newsletter, The Institutional Risk Analyst...``hedge funds often times are merely extensions of the dealers with which they interact. It is often difficult if not impossible to tell where the dealer's interests end and those of the hedge fund begin, especially when the dealer and the fund seem to be working in concert to create securities that are being sold to third parties. This episode is a terrible mess and, to us at least, illustrates why the OTC markets for securities and derivatives need to be regulated out of existence -- or at least into compliance with norms of disclosure and fair dealing that would render such strategies impossible.''

Goldman Sachs; Jesse's Café Américain; Organized Criminal Behaviour; pattern.

zero hedge Tue 2010-03-09 17:59 EST

Is The Federal Reserve Insolvent?

...For a refined analysis of what would happen in that moment of clarity when the world realizes the world's biggest bank is broke, we turn to a presentation by Chris Sims, given before Princeton University, titled "Fiscal/Monetary Coordination When The Anchor Cable Has Snapped."...discusses precisely the issues were are faced with today: namely a monetary policy that has run amok, seignorage, exploding excess reserves, the impact of these on "power money", and, in general, a Fed balance sheet that is increasingly reminiscent of a drunk, rapid and schizophrenic bull in a China store...the only way to deal with a mark-to-market of the Fed currently is to embrace monetization. It is no longer a question of semantics, of who promised what: it is the only mechanical way by which the Fed can dig itself out of a capital deficiency. With GSE delinquencies exploding, and with the Fed (and Congress) singlehandedly facilitating imprudent lender policy by allowing ever more borrowers to become deliquent without consequences, the MBS delinquency rate will likely hit 10% over the next 6-12 months. At that moment, someone will ask the Fed: "what is the true basis of your capital account?" And when the Fed is forced to justify a valid response, is when monetizaton will begin...

Federal Reserve Insolvent; Zero Hedge.

Mon 2010-03-08 09:41 EST

Truthdig - Calling All Rebels

Chris Hedges

There are no constraints left to halt America's slide into a totalitarian capitalism. Electoral politics are a sham. The media have been debased and defanged by corporate owners. The working class has been impoverished and is now being plunged into profound despair. The legal system has been corrupted to serve corporate interests. Popular institutions, from labor unions to political parties, have been destroyed or emasculated by corporate power. And any form of protest, no matter how tepid, is blocked by an internal security apparatus that is starting to rival that of the East German secret police. The mounting anger and hatred, coursing through the bloodstream of the body politic, make violence and counter-violence inevitable. Brace yourself. The American empire is over. And the descent is going to be horrifying...

called; rebel; Truthdig.

zero hedge Tue 2009-11-03 19:57 EST

Guest Post: Systemic Risk is All About Innovation and Incentives: Ed Kane

Edward J. Kane vi Chris Whalen

...we present the views of our friend and mentor Ed Kane of Boston College, who argues that the problem with the financial regulatory framework is not the law, regulation nor even the regulators, but rather the confluence of poorly aligned incentives and financial innovation... The financial crisis of 2007-2009 is the product of a regulation-induced short-cutting and near elimination of private counterparty incentives to perform adequate due diligence along the chain of transactions traversed in securitizing and re-securitizing risky loans (Kane, 2009a). The GLBA [Gramm-Leach-Bliley Financial Modernization Act of 1999] did make it easier for institutions to make themselves more difficult to fail and unwind. But it did not cause due-diligence incentives to break down in lending and securitization, nor did it cause borrowers and lenders to overleverage themselves. Still, the three phenomena share a common cause. Excessive risk-taking, regulation-induced innovation, and the lobbying pressure that led to the GLBA trace to subsidies to risk-taking that are protected by the political and economic challenges of monitoring and policing the safety-net consequences of regulation-induced innovation. These challenges and the limited liability that their stockholders and counterparties enjoy make it easy for clever managers of large institutions to extract implicit subsidies to leveraged risk-taking from national safety nets (Kane, 2009b)...To reduce the threat of future crises, the pressing task is not to rework bureaucratic patterns of financial regulation, but to repair defects in the incentive structure under which private and government supervisors manage a nation's financial safety net.

Ed Kane; Guest Post; incentives; innovation; systemic risk; Zero Hedge.

Jesse's Café Américain Mon 2009-10-26 09:52 EDT

The US Power Elite: An Alliance of Convenience or a Ménage à Trois?

Jesse

"I submit that our spendthrift government, the Federal Reserve System and the TBTF banks together now comprise the paramount political tendency in America today. This tripartite "Alliance of Convenience," let's not call it a conspiracy, fits beautifully into the corporatist mold that seems to be America in the 21st Century - but only viewed by the elites in cities like New York and Washington. Many Americans of all political descriptions oppose this corrupt and unaccountable political formulation." Chris Whalen, Institutional Risk Analytics

alliance; convenience; Jesse's Café Américain; Ménage à Trois; power elites.

The Big Picture Fri 2009-10-23 09:03 EDT

Dick Alford on Opportunities Lost by the Fed

Richard Alford (via Chris Whalen)

Against a backdrop of continued financial fragility and extraordinary policy actions, policymakers are discussing re-balancing global growth, restoring financial stability, and the future of the Dollar as the world's reserve currency. In 2005, Edwin Truman proposed a list of policy measures that if followed would have reduced the US external imbalance and placed the reserve status of the Dollar on better footing. Truman's proposal differed from the standard litany of US fiscal discipline, Dollar adjustment, and increased demand in surplus countries. It called upon the Federal Reserve to slow the growth in US demand. More recent research, by Shin and Adrian, suggests that if the Fed had heeded Truman's prescription, then monetary policy would have also mitigated the recent turmoil in financial markets...

Big Picture; Dick Alford; Fed; opportunity lost.

Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Mon 2009-10-12 09:22 EDT

One Hand Clapping Theory Analyzed

Michael Shedlock

Numerous people have asked me to comment on Chris Martenson's article The Sound of One Hand Clapping - What Deflationists May Be Missing. Chris Writes: ...``Trillions in probable and provable losses quietly exist, out of sight, on the balance sheets of the Federal Reserve and other financial institutions. If they ever come out of hiding and onto the books, I think the deflationists will be proven correct beyond all doubt. But let me ask this: What prevents the authorities from simply storing them out of sight forever?...I am now wondering if they cannot keep this up indefinitely.'' ...In a credit based economy, the odds of a sustainable rebound without bank credit expanding, and consumers participating is not very good. Even if one mistakenly assumes that the recent rally is a result of pretending, should we count on sustained success now more so than a measurement of stock prices in April of 1930, or any of Japans' four 50% rallies? I think not. Pretending cannot accomplish much other than prolonging the agony for decades. This is the message of Japan. Moreover, the US is arguably is worse shape than Japan because our problems are unsustainable consumer debt, high unemployment, and massive retail sector overcapacity. Those are structural problems that no amount of pretending in the world can possibly cure. In due time, the market will focus on those problems.

hand clapping theory analyzed; Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis.

Thu 2009-07-30 00:00 EDT

AlterNet: The Disease of Permanent War

-- by Chris Hedges; ``The embrace by any society of permanent war is a parasite that devours the heart and soul of a nation.''

AlterNet; disease; permanent war.

Tue 2009-06-16 00:00 EDT

Brace For Hyper-Inflation

by Henry Blodget; Chris Whalen

brace; hyper Inflation.

Wed 2009-04-01 00:00 EDT

Truthdig - A Choice Between Peace and Peril

by Chris Hedges; ``Netanyahus assumption of power in Israel sets the stage for a huge campaign by the Israeli government, and its well-oiled lobby groups in Washington, to push us into a war with Iran''

choices; peace; peril; Truthdig.

Thu 2009-02-26 00:00 EST

AlterNet: U.S. Intel Chief's Shocking Warning: Wall Street's Disaster Has Spawned Our Greatest Terrorist Threat

by Chris Hedges, Truthdig

AlterNet; greatest terrorist threat; Spawn; U.S. Intel Chief's Shocking Warning; Wall Street's Disaster.

Tue 2009-02-24 00:00 EST

Jesse's Café Américain: How to Resolve the Mortgage Crisis

Jesse's Café Américain: How to Resolve the Mortgage Crisis; Chris Whalen, The Institutional Risk Analyst

Jesse's Café Américain; mortgage crisis; resolved.

Thu 2009-01-15 00:00 EST

AlterNet: The Best and the Brightest Have Led America Off a Cliff

by Chris Hedges; William Deresiewicz quoted

AlterNet; best; brightest; cliff; Led America.

Wed 2008-12-10 00:00 EST

AlterNet: Obama's Treasury Pick Has All the Wrong Ideas

by William Greider; Timothy Geithner, Chris Whalen

AlterNet; Obama's Treasury Pick; wrong ideas.

Wed 2008-12-10 00:00 EST

naked capitalism: Chris Whalen Looks at Geithner's Record and Finds it Sorely Wanting

Chris Whalen Looks; find; Geithner's Record; naked capitalism; Sorely Wanting.

Wed 2008-12-10 00:00 EST

The Institutional Risk Analyst: What Barack Obama Needs to Know About Tim Geithner, the AIG Fiasco and Citigroup

What Barack Obama Needs to Know About Tim Geithner the AIG CDS Fiasco, by Institutional Risk Analytics (Chris Whalen)

AIG fiascos; Barack Obama needed; Citigroup; Institutional Risk Analyst; know; Tim Geithner.

Tue 2008-11-25 00:00 EST

naked capitalism: Chris Whalen Looks at Geithner's Record and Finds it Sorely Wanting

Chris Whalen Looks; find; Geithner's Record; naked capitalism; Sorely Wanting.

Wed 2008-07-09 00:00 EDT

Tomgram: Chris Hedges, War and Occupation, American-style

Collateral Damage: What It Really Means When America Goes to War, by Chris Hedges; "The war in Iraq is now primarily about murder."

American-style; Chris Hedges; occupancy; Tomgram; war.

Fri 2008-07-04 00:00 EDT

AlterNet: Real Journalists Don't Make $5 Million a Year

by Chris Hedges; "The popular media are courtiers...They are the smiley faces of a corporate state that has hijacked the government and is raping the nation."

5; AlterNet; makes; Real Journalists; years.

Thu 2008-06-05 00:00 EDT

Tomgram: Chris Hedges, War and Occupation, American-style

Collateral Damage: What It Really Means When America Goes to War, by Chris Hedges

American-style; Chris Hedges; occupancy; Tomgram; war.

Tue 2007-09-25 00:00 EDT

When America Went Fascist - The Smirking Chimp

When America Went Fascist, by Chris Rowthorn; constitution gutted, nation as 'homeland'; detention camps under construction - The Smirking Chimp

America Went Fascist; Smirking Chimp.

Sun 2007-08-26 00:00 EDT

The Other War: Iraq Vets Bear Witness

by Chris Hedges and Laila Al-Arian

Iraq Vets Bear Witness; war.

Fri 2005-07-01 00:00 EDT

News & Features | All classed up and nowhere to go

News & Features | All classed up and nowhere to go (NYT class-in-america critique by Chris Lehman)

classes; features; Go; news.