Fabius Maximus Wed 2010-08-25 09:31 EDT

The face of America's decline

Fabius Maximus

...Mark Hurd, until recently CEO of HP. See the face of America's economic decline...from ``The Real Reason for Ousting H.P.'s Chief``, Joe Nocera, New York Times: [according to] Charles House, a former longtime H.P. engineer: The way H.P. made its numbers...was not just cutting any old costs, but by ``chopping R.&D.,'' which had always been sacred at H.P. The research and development budget used to be 9% of revenue, Mr. House told me; now it was closer to 2%. ``In the personal computer group, it is 0.7%''...Here we see America's formula for decline... 1. Fantastic pay for leaders 2. Stagnant pay for employees 3. Cutting jobs (efficiencies, forcing harder work, moving off-shore) 4. Slash investments in the future (capex, training, R&D)...

America s decline; Fabius Maximus; Faces.

Mon 2010-08-23 11:11 EDT

Hussman Funds - Valuing Foreign Currencies: Currency is both a means of payment and a store of value. [2000-09-22]

John P. Hussman, Ph.D

Any currency is both a means of payment and a store of value. So when you try to determine what it's worth, you have to consider both what it can buy in terms of goods, and what it can earn if you hold it as an asset. An exchange rate is just the price of a currency...If you look at a currency as a means of exchange...you can get a reasonable idea of the "long term" tendency of the currency by tracking the movements of price indices in two countries. This is what traders refer to as the "Purchasing Power Parity" (PPP) value of the exchange rate...But PPP is only a tendency that holds loosely over the long term. Over the short term, there's another important factor: interest rates...anytime long term interest rates, after inflation (i.e. real interest rates) are expected to be higher in the foreign country than in the U.S., the foreign currency will be above PPP...

2000-09-22; currency; Hussman Funds; meaning; payment; store; valued; Valuing Foreign Currencies.

Mon 2010-08-23 11:04 EDT

Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment: Why Quantitative Easing is Likely to Trigger a Collapse of the U.S. Dollar - August 23, 2010

John P. Hussman, Ph.D.

A week ago, the Federal Reserve initiated a new program of "quantitative easing" (QE), with the Fed purchasing U.S. Treasury securities and paying for those securities by creating billions of dollars in new monetary base. Treasury bond prices surged on the action. With the U.S. economy predictably weakening, this second round of quantitative easing appears likely to continue. Unfortunately, the unintended side effect of this policy shift is likely to be an abrupt collapse in the foreign exchange value of the U.S. dollar...

2010; August 23; Collapse; Hussman Funds; likely; Quantitative Easing; triggered; U.S. dollar; weekly market comments.

Mon 2010-05-24 10:11 EDT

Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment: Don't Mess with Aunt Minnie - May 24, 2010

John P. Hussman

...Last week, we observed an Aunt Minnie featuring a collapse in market internals that has historically been associated with sharply negative market implications....Treasury Secretary Eddie Haskell/Timothy Geithner has scheduled a trip to Europe this week to urge European leaders "to pay better attention to potential market reactions to policy moves, and to accelerate the European rescue program." This promises to be a fiasco. What could European leaders possibly find more arrogant than to be lectured on bailout policy - not simply by the U.S., but specifically by a one-trick pony bureaucrat whose chief trick is the ability to smoothly talk the language of prudence while simultaneously pillaging the fiscal stability of an entire nation for the benefit of bondholders who made bad loans?...Providing Greece (and possibly some of its neighbors) a graceful exit from the Euro requires greater courage but lower ultimate cost - particularly to the citizens of Greece itself - than a policy of forcing heavy austerity, dislocations, and internal deflation within Greece. The effect of austerity policies will be to damage the revenue side of the Grecian economy enough to leave the deficits little changed in any event. One would like to go back a decade in time and choose different policies that would have allowed Greece to maintain the Maastricht deficit limitations, but it is far too late to push a full-grown genie back into an itty-bitty bottle...

2010; 24; Aunt Minnie; Hussman Funds; Mess; weekly market comments.

Sat 2010-05-22 21:16 EDT

CFEPS Research - L. Randall Wray

L. Randall Wray is a Professor of Economics at the University of Missouri-Kansas City, a Senior Research Associate at the Center for Full Employment and Price Stability [CFEPS]...A student of Hyman P. Minsky while at Washington University in St. Louis where he earned his Ph.D. in economics (1988)...Professor Wray has focused on monetary theory and policy, macroeconomics, and employment policy. He is currently writing on modern money, the monetary theory of production, social security, and rising incarceration rates (Penal Keynesianism). He is developing policies to promote true full employment, focusing on Hyman P. Minsky's "employer of last resort" proposal as a way to bring low-skilled, prime-age males back into the labor force. Wray"s research has appeared in numerous books and journals...

CFEPS Research; L. Randall Wray.

Sat 2010-05-22 14:06 EDT

A Japanese Rx for the West: Keep Spending - Interview with Richard Koo - Barrons.com

LESLIE P. NORTON

America seems to be suffering from the same affliction that has hobbled Japan for so long -- a balance-sheet recession. And no matter how hard the Federal Reserve tries, it won't end until businesses shake their heavy loads....the private-sector companies are no longer maximizing profits; they are minimizing debt. They are minimizing debt because all the assets they bought with borrowed money collapsed in value, but the debt is still on their books, so their balance sheets are all under water. If your balance sheet is under water, you have to repair it. So everybody is in balance-sheet-repair mode...It took us [in Japan] a decade to figure out. People said, "Ah, just run the printing presses, ah, structural reform, ah, just privatize the post office, this and that, and everything will be fine." Nothing worked. This is pneumonia, not the common cold. When people are minimizing debt because of their balance-sheet problems, monetary policy is largely useless. If your balance sheet is under water, in negative equity, you are not going to borrow money at any interest rate, and no one will lend you money, either...

Barrons; com; interview; Japanese Rx; keep spending; Richard Koo; West.

Jesse's Café Américain Sat 2010-04-03 09:48 EDT

Whistleblower Speaks Out On J. P. Morgan's Market Manipulation - Reports Violations to the CFTC

Jesse

Do we have another Harry Markopolos here, describing in detail the manipulation of the gold market by J.P. Morgan to the CFTC? How does this square with the testimony today from the CFTC Commissioners, who seem to indicate that the markets are functioning extremely well, and that investor can have full confidence in them? I am led to understand that Mr. McGuire had offered to testify before the CFTC today, and that he was refused admittance. I do not know him, or the position he is in within the trading community. I cannot therefore assess his credibility or the validity of any evidence which he may present or possess. But I have the feeling that nothing will come of this...What seems particularly twisted about this is that JPM is the custodian of the largest silver ETF (SLV). Is anyone auditing that ETF, and watching any conflicts of interest and self-trading? Multiple counterparty claims on the same bullion? If you ever wanted to see a good reason for the Volcker rule, this is it. These jokers are one of the US' largest banks, with trillions of dollars in unaudited derivatives exposure, and they seem to be engaging in trading practices like Enron did before it collapsed...

CFTC; J. P. Morgan's Market Manipulation; Jesse's Café Américain; reported violations; Whistleblowers speak.

Mon 2010-03-22 14:10 EDT

American small businesses needn't go extinct

Barry C. Lynn

...One recent study, based on data compiled by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, placed the United States second to last out of 22 rich nations in the percentage of workers who run their own businesses. Only Luxembourg ranked lower. The American small business is increasingly becoming an American myth: Self-employment in nonfarm businesses has fallen by nearly half over the past 50 years...specific political moves and decisions in Washington over the past several decades have made it much easier for the people who control large-scale corporations to displace small proprietors. One of the most important was a radical change in 1981 in the enforcement of U.S. antitrust laws...we have witnessed the greatest consolidation of economic power since the days of J.D. Rockefeller and J.P. Morgan.

American small businesses needn't go extinct.

Jesse's Café Américain Tue 2009-12-01 22:16 EST

Draining the Swamp: The Fed's Tri Party Repo Machine

Jesse

A triparty repo transaction is a transaction among three parties: a cash lender acting on behalf of all holders of dollars (the Fed), a borrower that will provide collateral (dodgy debt holder in shaky financial condition), and a clearing bank, most likely a primary dealer like J.P. Morgan, which is only too happy to collect its fees as an agent of the Fed... This is the method of obtaining toxic assets from the books of non-primary dealers, and providing stability and liquidity from the aggregate value of all dollar holders to cover the misdeeds of diverse financial institutions and other favored parties. In other words, the Fed is draining the financial debt swamp and toxic waste dumps into your basement, if you hold Federal Reserve Notes.

drain; Fed's Tri Party Repo Machine; Jesse's Café Américain; swamping.

Wed 2009-11-25 09:59 EST

Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment: "Should Come as No Shock to Anyone" - November 16, 2009

John P. Hussman

The big picture is this. There is most probably a second wave of mortgage defaults in the immediate future as a result of Alt-A and Option-ARM resets. Yet our capacity to deal with these losses has already been strained by the first round that largely ended in March. The Federal Reserve has taken a massive amount of mortgage-backed securities onto a balance sheet that used to be restricted to Treasury securities. The purchase of these securities is reflected by a surge in cash reserves held by banks. Not only are the banks not lending these funds, they are contracting their loan portfolios rapidly. Ultimately, in order to unwind the Fed's position in these securities, it will have to sell them back to the public and absorb those excess reserves, so to some extent, the banking system can count on losing the deposits created by the Fed's actions, and can't make long-term loans with these funds anyway. Increasingly, the Fed has decided to forgo the idea of repurchase agreements (which require the seller to repurchase the security at a later date), and is instead making outright purchases of the debt of government sponsored enterprises (GSEs such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac). Again, the Fed used to purchase only Treasuries outright, but it is purchasing agency securities with the excuse that these securities are implicitly backed by the U.S. government. This strikes me as a huge mistake, because it effectively impairs the Fed's ability to get rid of the securities at the price it paid for them, should Congress change its approach toward the GSEs. It simultaneously complicates Congress' ability to address the problem because Bernanke has tied the integrity of our monetary base to these assets. The policy of the Fed and Treasury amounts to little more than obligating the public to defend the bondholders of mismanaged financial companies, and to absorb losses that should have been borne by irresponsible lenders. From my perspective, this is nothing short of an unconstitutional abuse of power, as the actions of the Fed (not to mention some of Geithner's actions at the Treasury) ultimately have the effect of diverting public funds to reimburse private losses, even though spending is the specifically enumerated power of the Congress alone.

2009; comes; Hussman Funds; November 16; shocks; weekly market comments.

Jesse's Café Américain Sat 2009-10-10 11:52 EDT

Beta Monster: The Most Dangerous Banks In the World

Jesse

The most leveraged bank by far is the-investment-bank-which-must-not-be-named. It is followed by J.P. Morgan on a percentage basis, but JPM is far larger nominally than these charts indicate because of its much larger capital base. Its in the nature of the difference between a cardshark (GS) and a pawnshop (JPM). Or perhaps just the capital requirements of the short versus the long con. [Goldman Sachs astronomical credit exposure, trading revenue, derivatives exposure]

Beta Monsters; Dangerous Banks; Jesse's Café Américain; world.

Tue 2009-09-29 11:10 EDT

Steeling for a Currency Deal in Pittsburgh? - Up and Down Wall Street Daily - Barrons.com

RANDALL W. FORSYTH

An options play suggests somebody expects the G20 to hatch a scheme to stabilize currencies. Duct tape for the dollar?...Reports John F. Brady, futures expert at MF Global, there was a big seller of "volatility" in the euro versus the dollar Thursday...What's curious, Brady explains, is that vols on the euro already are low, so it's hard to see them going much lower...Which got me to wondering if the volatility seller was thinking the G20 would do something to force volatility lower -- that is, stabilize exchange rates...Notwithstanding the calls for a replacement of the dollar as the main reserve currency, gold isn't it, according to long-time market observer David P. Goldman,..."Even a rather wobbly reserve currency is better than gold," he writes as his alter ego, Spengler, whom he "channels" for Asia Times (www.atimes.com.) "Gold is far less liquid than U.S. Treasury securities, costly to store and insure, and above all more volatile in price...gold isn't an investment but an insurance policy against a breakdown of the function of the world financial system."

Barrons; com; currency deal; Pittsburgh; steel; Wall Street Daily.

Jesse's Café Américain Sun 2009-09-13 10:32 EDT

Barrick Capitulates

Jesse

Barrick and their partner J.P. Morgan were the target of lawsuits by the gold bulls, most notably Blanchard and Company, for price manipulation through the use of their forward sales in their hedge book. Barrick's original defense was reported to be that they were acting in conjunction with J. P. Morgan and the central banks to cap the price of gold, and were therefore immune from prosecution since the central banks are immune from prosecution. Gold market manipulations.

Barrick Capitulates; Jesse's Café Américain.

Thu 2009-02-26 00:00 EST

Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment: How to Climb Out of the Global Financial Hole - February 17, 2009

John P. Hussman

2009; climbed; February 17; global financial hole; Hussman Funds; weekly market comments.

Mon 2009-01-19 00:00 EST

Jesse's Café Américain: The Worst Is Yet to Come (But We Beat the Numbers) - J. P. Morgan

Jesse's Café Américain: The Worst Is Yet to Come (But We Beat the Numbers) - J. P. Morgan

beat; comes; J.P. Morgan; Jesse's Café Américain; numbers; worst.

Thu 2009-01-15 00:00 EST

Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment: The Dollar Crisis Begins - December 22, 2008

Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment: The Dollar Crisis Begins, by John P. Hussman; ``foreign holders of Treasury securities are facing probable losses, and they know it''

2008; December 22; Dollar Crisis Begins; Hussman Funds; weekly market comments.

Fri 2008-11-07 00:00 EST

naked capitalism: Bretton Woods 2, R.I.P.

dollar losing reserve status

Bretton Woods 2; naked capitalism; R.I.P..

Tue 2008-09-23 00:00 EDT

Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment

An Open Letter to the U.S. Congress Regarding the Current Financial Crisis, by John P. Hussman; ``the plan advocated by Treasury is essentially a plan to bail out the bondholders of financial institutions that made bad lending decisions, with little help to homeowners that are actually in financial distress''; Paulson bailout plan

Hussman Funds; weekly market comments.

Thu 2008-05-15 00:00 EDT

The Secret Bailout of J. P. Morgan: How Insider Trading Looted Bear Stearns and the American Taxpayer

by Ellen Brown

American Taxpayer; Insider Trading Looted Bear Stearns; J.P. Morgan; Secret Bailout.

Tue 2008-03-25 00:00 EDT

Interfluidity :: Counterparty of last resort?

Fed "loan" "to support J.P. Morgan's purchase of Bear Stearns...not a loan at all. The Fed and J.P. Morgan are creating an investment fund, to be managed by BlackRock."

counterparty; Interfluidity; resort.

Tue 2008-03-18 00:00 EDT

Techniques For Defining, Using And Manipulating Rights Management Data Structures

Edwin J. Hall, Victor H. Shear, Luke S. Tomasello, David M. Van Wie, Robert P. Weber, Kim Worsencroft, Xuejun Xu

US Patent 7062500: 707/102; Intertrust

defines; Manipulating Rights Management Data Structures; technique; use.

Mon 2007-11-12 00:00 EST

Hussman Funds - How and Why Options Should Be Expensed From Corporate Earnings

Option grants dilute shareholder value; by John P. Hussman

corporations earnings; expensive; Hussman Funds; optionality.

Tue 2007-09-11 00:00 EDT

Hussman Funds - Weekly Market Comment: September 10, 2007 - Waiting for the Witch Doctor

by John P. Hussman; "whatever the Fed does, the impact will be almost entirely psychological"

2007; Hussman Funds; September 10; waiting; weekly market comments; witch doctor.

Tue 2007-09-11 00:00 EDT

Hussman Funds - Why the Federal Reserve is Irrelevant

Alan Greenspan isn't the "Maestro." He's Oz. By John P. Hussman (2001-08);

Federal Reserve; Hussman Funds; irrelevant.